Kerry's approval ratings, to put into perspective

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Despite Kerry's not all that great approval ratings, he has a 60% approval among Democrats in the latest poll, the primary electorate. That's really all that matters in the primary. So in the primary, he is essentially sitting where the following Senators are in the general:

29    AK    Stevens, Ted    R    Sr    62%    34%    28%
30    WA    Cantwell, Maria    D    Jr    62%    34%    28%
31    WV    Rockefeller, Jay    D    Jr    61%    32%    29%
32    ID    Crapo, Michael    R    Jr    61%    29%    32%
33    AZ    McCain, John    R    Sr    61%    34%    27%
34    SD    Thune, John    R    Jr    61%    36%    25%
35    IN    Bayh, Evan    D    Jr    61%    29%    31%
36    AL    Shelby, Richard    R    Sr    60%    31%    29%
37    VA    Warner, John    R    Sr    60%    28%    32%
38    ID    Craig, Larry    R    Sr    60%    32%    29%
39    NY    Schumer, Charles    D    Sr    60%    33%    27%       
40    NE    Hagel, Chuck    R    Sr    59%    35%    25%
41    OR    Wyden, Ron    D    Sr    59%    33%    26%
42    TX    Hutchison, Kay    R    Sr    59%    35%    24%
43    CA    Feinstein, Dianne    D    Sr    59%    34%    25%        
44    AL    Sessions, Jeff    R    Jr    58%    32%    25%
45    UT    Bennett, Robert    R    Jr    58%    32%    25%
46    MI    Stabenow, Debbie    D    Jr    58%    38%    20%

Basically, Kerry has as much chance of losing the primary as any of those have of losing the general. Anything think Larry Craig or Jay Rockefeller might be in trouble?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Despite Kerry's not all that great approval ratings, he has a 60% approval among Democrats in the latest poll, the primary electorate. That's really all that matters in the primary. So in the primary, he is essentially sitting where the following Senators are in the general:

29    AK    Stevens, Ted    R    Sr    62%    34%    28%
30    WA    Cantwell, Maria    D    Jr    62%    34%    28%
31    WV    Rockefeller, Jay    D    Jr    61%    32%    29%
32    ID    Crapo, Michael    R    Jr    61%    29%    32%
33    AZ    McCain, John    R    Sr    61%    34%    27%
34    SD    Thune, John    R    Jr    61%    36%    25%
35    IN    Bayh, Evan    D    Jr    61%    29%    31%
36    AL    Shelby, Richard    R    Sr    60%    31%    29%
37    VA    Warner, John    R    Sr    60%    28%    32%
38    ID    Craig, Larry    R    Sr    60%    32%    29%
39    NY    Schumer, Charles    D    Sr    60%    33%    27%       
40    NE    Hagel, Chuck    R    Sr    59%    35%    25%
41    OR    Wyden, Ron    D    Sr    59%    33%    26%
42    TX    Hutchison, Kay    R    Sr    59%    35%    24%
43    CA    Feinstein, Dianne    D    Sr    59%    34%    25%        
44    AL    Sessions, Jeff    R    Jr    58%    32%    25%
45    UT    Bennett, Robert    R    Jr    58%    32%    25%
46    MI    Stabenow, Debbie    D    Jr    58%    38%    20%

Basically, Kerry has as much chance of losing the primary as any of those have of losing the general. Anything think Larry Craig or Jay Rockefeller might be in trouble?

A race between Rockefeller and Capito or Ireland would be interesting; particularly in a Presidential year. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That doesn't meant he would have any chance of losing whatsoever, and that's exactly the reason neither one will run.

[Adlai Stevenson]

That doesn't meant he would have any chance of losing whatsoever, and that's exactly the reason neither one will run.

I said it would be interesting - not that he would lose.

And thinking about it I don't think Kerry's ratings amongst Democrats now truely reflect the situation in a Primary race.  If he was involved in a divisive Primary battle then they would obviously decrease with the attacks on him by a challenger.  Two-thirds of Democrats approve of Kerry now but if they were faced with a choice it could still be competetive.  Before you jump on me - I am not saying he would lose.  I am saying it would be more competetive as a strong Primary challenger would be bound to draw some voters away from Kerry. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If he's not going to lose, there's no reason for any Congressman to throw away their seat just because he might be able to break 40%.

Besides, what issues would any primary challenger bash Kerry on? Unlike Lamont and Toomey, there is nothing that any challenger can use to turn the base against Kerry. There is also no way to get the grassroots support one needs to even come close. That's why I think this talk of a primary challenge to Kerry is just stupid. Why's no one talking about one to Lautenberg? (in a similiar position)

[HardRCafé]

Lautenberg didn't get New Jersey four more years of Bush.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If he's not going to lose, there's no reason for any Congressman to throw away their seat just because he might be able to break 40%.

Shelley Moore Capito is female...

[Adlai Stevenson]

Besides, what issues would any primary challenger bash Kerry on? Unlike Lamont and Toomey, there is nothing that any challenger can use to turn the base against Kerry. There is also no way to get the grassroots support one needs to even come close. That's why I think this talk of a primary challenge to Kerry is just stupid. Why's no one talking about one to Lautenberg? (in a similiar position)

Voting the for the Iraq War.  A record of incompetance - I think many Democrats and people in Massachusetts have feelings of embrassment and irritation towards Kerry.  His Presidential loss began it, but his subsuquent gaffes as well as real hatred of Bush have done contributed to the situation  also.  Its paradoxical that anti-Bush feeling should rebound on Kerry, but some of the grassroots definitely feel that.   

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A 6 year old vote (that Meehan voted the same way on) that he has now turned against isn't going to cause him to lose. Lieberman got 48% despite still being to the right of Bush on Iraq, so I think Kerry's record for calling for troop withdrawl now is worth an extra 2 points. Have you seen DU or Kos? They aren't pissed at Kerry, but rather the media for making a mountain out of a molehill for that gaffe. A botched joke also doesn't lose a primary. And the grassroots still support Kerry based on DU. Not for the 2008 nomination obviously, but no one is calling for him to be tossed from the Senate like they were with Lieberman. Go suggest that on DU and see how much support you'll get. Kerry is not comparable to Lieberman AT ALL.

I just think people need to quit thinking there HAS to be a primary challenge to him. By some posts here you'd think it was written in stone. If Meehan is going to give up his seat because he's been offered a University Chancellorship, that's why, it's not so he can foolishly run against Kerry and use that as a backup. I'd bet ever dollar I have Kerry will still be in the Senate Jan 09, and that no member of the MA delegation is a total f**king idiot.

If he's not going to lose, there's no reason for any Congressman to throw away their seat just because he might be able to break 40%.

Shelley Moore Capito is female...

I was referring to the Massachusetts delegation.

[sethm0]

 Capito is overrated. Republicans salivate over her because she is the one successful Republican politician in a state they feel like they should be winning, but there is little evidence that West Virginia's recent shift to the right is a permanant realignment as opposed to a temporary phenomenon.

 Consider: Capito only won 57% in her own district in '06 despite outspending her opponent almost 5-1. Rockafeller, Byrd and Manchin are all much more popular and have won their recent races by much larger margins. Also, West Virginia's other two members of Congress, both Democrats, won re-election by significantly larger margins than her - even Mollohan, who was facing a significant corruption investigation.

 I give Capito no chance in a race against Rockelfeller and 50/50 at best in an open race against Nick Rahall or any of West Virginia's many Democratic state officers.
 
 In fairness, I see why Republicans talk about Cpaito so much - she is really all they have in that state.

[sethm0]

 As far as Kerry goes, I don't think he needs to panic, but he does need to start worrying. He'll get through the primary fine but if the Republicans put up somebody strong and he takes the race for granted, he could find himself in a much closer race than he bargianed for.

 If I were a Republican in Massachusetts, I wouldn't be thrilled about my chances anywhere, but I would maybe even see more potential opportunity in taking on Kerry than Meehan's possible open seat. Massachusetts is a very liberal state - the only thing keeping Kerry's numbers down are his personal qualities.