The 2006 Elections in Virginia

[Adlai Stevenson]

Although Jim Webb defeated George Allen, a big boost for Democrats in the Congressional races the results were somewhat disappointing.  VA-2 and VA-10 were definite opportunities and in the end Thelma Drake won 51%-49% and Frank Wolf soundly defeated Judy Feder 57%-41%.  He actually did better than George W. Bush's 55%-44% margin in VA-10 in 2004.  Why couldn't the Democrats win or come closer in these races? 

[cp]

I think your answer might be in your original set up: Jim Webb won.

In the final weeks of the campaign, the Democrats knew they had the house locked up, for all intents and purposes, and the races you mentioned were possible pickups, but way down the list in terms of likelihood. By contrast, the chance of picking up the Senate seat was coming into full blossom and I imagine the potential Democratic donors were advised to contribute there, where it would make the most difference.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both VA-2 and VA-10 are natural Republican districts; Wolf was never in any real danger IMO (I'd have been stunned if he'd lost), and by November the Democratic candidate in VA-2 (forget the name) had clearly lost momentum.

A more interesting question is why couldn't they find a serious candidate to run against Goode (who was held under 60% by a joke candidate with a semi-amusing name) or even a joke candidate to run against Forbes (who's district was Democratic as recently as 2000) ?

[Mr.Phips]

VA-02 is generally a Conservative Democratic district and VA-10 is getting less Republican every cycle.   

The only rock solid Republican districts in Virginia are VA-01, VA-06, and VA-07. 

[WalterMitty]

do most of you agree that boucher's seat will flip to the gop whenever he retires?

[TheresNoMoney]

Most of the Dem gains are in northern Virginia in 2 or 3 districts. Tom Davis's seat will flip to the Democrats once he leaves, right?

[Virginian87]

do most of you agree that boucher's seat will flip to the gop whenever he retires?

No, it won't.  That seat will stay Democratic because the Democrats there are very similar to those in West Virginia; in other words highly electable.  Blacksburg is also solidly Democratic, and I think that would be a factor in any upcoming election as well.  The panhandle has also given folks like Webb and Warner a good deal of support.  I'm sure Democrats could find a candidate (prob. along the lines of Creigh Deeds) to replace Boucher. 

Now, as for congressional seats to watch out for:

Whenever Tom Davis retires, I guarantee that seat in VA-11 will become Democratic.  Wolf's district will become more competitive as Fauquier and Loudoun counties become more developed.  Finally, believe it or not, I think the Democrats could pick up Goode's district if they were serious enough about it.  Charlottesville Lynchburg and Danville are all definitely winnable places.

[RBH]

Anything that anybody wants to note about the Democratic Senate primary result?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2006&off=3&elect=1&fips=51&f=0

It looks like NoVA and some more traditionally Dem areas put Webb over the top against Miller.

Basically NoVA is increasing influence in the Democratic Party of Virginia, it seems

[Mr.Phips]

do most of you agree that boucher's seat will flip to the gop whenever he retires?

No, it won't.  That seat will stay Democratic because the Democrats there are very similar to those in West Virginia; in other words highly electable.  Blacksburg is also solidly Democratic, and I think that would be a factor in any upcoming election as well.  The panhandle has also given folks like Webb and Warner a good deal of support.  I'm sure Democrats could find a candidate (prob. along the lines of Creigh Deeds) to replace Boucher. 

Now, as for congressional seats to watch out for:

Whenever Tom Davis retires, I guarantee that seat in VA-11 will become Democratic.  Wolf's district will become more competitive as Fauquier and Loudoun counties become more developed.  Finally, believe it or not, I think the Democrats could pick up Goode's district if they were serious enough about it.  Charlottesville Lynchburg and Danville are all definitely winnable places.

I think it will be a while before Boucher retires.

[RBH]

Plus, Byrne getting the Lt. Gov nomination in 2005 could probably be attributed to NoVA

[Virginian87]

Plus, Byrne getting the Lt. Gov nomination in 2005 could probably be attributed to NoVA

Yes, that was rather unfortunate.  What an awful person to run statewide.  Leslie Byrne's politics are more in tune with Massachusetts than Virginia.  I voted against her in the primary for that very reason.

If we had run Petersen, than I bet we would have won the Lt. Governor's race in 2005.

[Mr.Phips]

Why doesn't Byrne try to run for VA-11? 

[RBH]

Plus, Byrne getting the Lt. Gov nomination in 2005 could probably be attributed to NoVA

Yes, that was rather unfortunate.  What an awful person to run statewide.  Leslie Byrne's politics are more in tune with Massachusetts than Virginia.  I voted against her in the primary for that very reason.

If we had run Petersen, than I bet we would have won the Lt. Governor's race in 2005.

Do you think she should be credited with coming within 26K or so of winning? or did Tim Kaine pretty much drag her that far?

CD results, Kaine/Kilgore on left, Byrne/Bolling on right

CD1: 51/46 Kilgore, 56/43 Bolling
CD2: 50/47 Kaine, 54/45 Bolling
CD3: 71/27 Kaine, 68/31 Byrne
CD4: 50/48 Kilgore, 54/45 Bolling
CD5: 50/48 Kaine, 53/47 Bolling
CD6: 53/44 Kilgore, 59/41 Bolling
CD7: 52/46 Kilgore, 58/42 Bolling
CD8: 70/28 Kaine, 69/30 Byrne
CD9: 55/43 Kilgore, 57/43 Bolling
CD10: 50/46 Kaine, 50.3/49.6 Bolling
CD11: 56/42 Kaine, 55/45 Byrne

Ok, the only point there is that there's a reason why some people want to keep going after Goode.

I'm sure a Bolling/Byrne and Byrne Dem primary map are impending.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ok, the only point there is that there's a reason why some people want to keep going after Goode.

I think the Democrats should seriously go for him because he's an obnoxious prick.


...


...


...


But I guess that (and didn't Warner carry that district in 2001?) might be a good reason to go after him as well...

[RBH]

Virgil Goode is helped out by the Switcher effect.

Basically, I don't think a single party switcher has lost re-election since Eugene Atkinson in 1982.

And look..

regional polarization!



https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2005&off=6&elect=1&fips=51&f=0

That's the 2005 Lt. Gov primary map.

[RBH]

Byrne/Bolling

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2005&off=6&elect=0&fips=51&f=0

[Gabu]

Now that's polarized voting.

[RBH]

Puckett won 114 of 115 votes in one county.

Byrne finished well in Montgomery county due to Virginia Tech.

[Mr.Phips]

Virgil Goode is helped out by the Switcher effect.

Basically, I don't think a single party switcher has lost re-election since Eugene Atkinson in 1982. 

Bill Grant in FL-02 in 1990.  He switched from Democratic to Republican in 1989 after Bush won, but was defeated by a 57%-43% margin by Democrat Pete Peterson in 1990. 

Also Randy Forbes in NY-01.  He switched from Republican to Democratic in 1999 after the impeachment disaster but lost the primary in 2000 to Regina Selzer who went on to be defeated by Republican Felix Grucci.  Grucci was then defeated by Democrat Tim Bishop in 2002. 

[HardRCafé]

I love Regina Seltzer; I was talking about her at a concert tonight.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Webb's victory wasn't big enough to generate any coattails. In fact considering how gerrymandered Virginia is, I bet Webb didn't win any district currently held by a Republican except for VA-11. Virginia's gerrymander may not be as ugly as Pennsylvania, Florida or Ohio, but it's almost as evil.

[Virginian87]

Webb's victory wasn't big enough to generate any coattails. In fact considering how gerrymandered Virginia is, I bet Webb didn't win any district currently held by a Republican except for VA-11. Virginia's gerrymander may not be as ugly as Pennsylvania, Florida or Ohio, but it's almost as evil.

Yeah, it's pretty bad here.

[RBH]

Webb's victory wasn't big enough to generate any coattails. In fact considering how gerrymandered Virginia is, I bet Webb didn't win any district currently held by a Republican except for VA-11. Virginia's gerrymander may not be as ugly as Pennsylvania, Florida or Ohio, but it's almost as evil.

Webb won the 10th district by 2827 votes (50.0-48..

2006 Senate results on left, 2004 Presidential results on right

CD01: 54/44 Allen, 60/39 Bush
CD02: 51/48 Allen, 58/42 Bush
CD03: 68/31 Webb, 66/33 Kerry
CD04: 54/45 Allen, 57/43 Bush
CD05: 54/45 Allen, 56/43 Bush
CD06: 58/40 Allen, 63/36 Bush
CD07: 57/42 Allen, 61/38 Bush
CD08: 69/30 Webb, 64/35 Kerry
CD09: 55/44 Allen, 59.5/39 Bush
CD10: 50/49 Webb, 55/44 Bush
CD11: 55/44 Webb, 50/49 Bush

The Moran district is probably the most splittable when it comes to upstate districts.

Although the redistricting odds favor smaller NoVA districts and larger downstate districts.

[Mr.Phips]

Webb's victory wasn't big enough to generate any coattails. In fact considering how gerrymandered Virginia is, I bet Webb didn't win any district currently held by a Republican except for VA-11. Virginia's gerrymander may not be as ugly as Pennsylvania, Florida or Ohio, but it's almost as evil.

Webb won the 10th district by 2827 votes (50.0-48..



2006 Senate results on left, 2004 Presidential results on right

CD01: 54/44 Allen, 60/39 Bush
CD02: 51/48 Allen, 58/42 Bush
CD03: 68/31 Webb, 66/33 Kerry
CD04: 54/45 Allen, 57/43 Bush
CD05: 54/45 Allen, 56/43 Bush
CD06: 58/40 Allen, 63/36 Bush
CD07: 57/42 Allen, 61/38 Bush
CD08: 69/30 Webb, 64/35 Kerry
CD09: 55/44 Allen, 59.5/39 Bush
CD10: 50/49 Webb, 55/44 Bush
CD11: 55/44 Webb, 50/49 Bush

The Moran district is probably the most splittable when it comes to upstate districts.

Although the redistricting odds favor smaller NoVA districts and larger downstate districts.

I wonder what the Dems will do if they are in control of redistricting for 2012?

I would imagine that they would shuffle some districts between VA-03 and VA-04 to give VA-04 a higher black percentage and make it more Democratic. 

I also think that they would move some Democratic districts from VA-08 and place them in VA-10 to make that more Democratic.  I can't think of what else they would do.

[RBH]

If the Dems have the power in Virginia, one thing that will save the 3rd district is a coalition of Black Democrats and Republicans.