KY Gov Poll(R): Tied Republican Primary, Dems Ahead in General

[InsideTheBeltway]

Here is a new poll commissoned by the Anne Northup for Governor campaign done by Public Opinion Strategies.

For the primary:

Gov. Ernie Fletcher 39%
Fmr. Rep. Anne Northup 39%
Businessman Billy Harper 10%

For the General:

House Speaker Jody Richards(D) 45%
Northup(R) 39%

Richards(D) 53%
Fletcher(R) 32%

Health Care Execuitive Bruce Lunsford(D) 45%
Northup(R) 40%

Lunsford (D) 50%
Fletcher (R) 36%

The margin of error is 4.38%.

The numbers are a bit weaker than I might have expected for Northup in the general , espcially considering this is her own polling, but, as the article points out, she doesn't have the name recongnition some of the other candidates do.

http://www.bluegrassreport.org/Northup_Memo.pdf

[Gabu]

FLETCHER YOU CAN DO IT

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I bet WalterMitty supports Fletcher.

[Adlai Stevenson]

She should be well ahead of Fletcher in the Primary considering what a terrible Governor he has been and the groundswell of Republican opposition to him and support for Northup.  Northup has a way to go yet.  I expect a Democrat to be inaugurated Governor of Kentucky in January 2008. 

[Nutmeg]

I expect a Democrat to be inaugurated Governor of Kentucky in January 2008. 

Kentucky wastes no time in getting its new officials into office; it holds inaugurations in early December.


On another note, does anyone know how the Democratic primary is looking?

[socaldem]

I'm suspicious of the poll.

POS is a GOP polling outfit and the poll doesn't mention the strongest of the Dem tickets: Miller-Maze.

[Keystone Phil]

Northup is going to destroy Fletcher.

[Tender Branson]

Northup is going to destroy Fletcher.

...who then gets destroyed by the Democratic primary winner...

[AndrewTX]

There is still time for either party to shake things up.

 I hope Northup does well. She can beat Fletcher, and I think she would do well for Kentucky.

[Verily]

I'm surprised Northup is behind. Maybe Fletcher has had a stronger effect on the GOP brand in Kentucky than I had thought; I was expecting something like Alaska in 2006.

[Keystone Phil]

Northup is going to destroy Fletcher.

...who then gets destroyed by the Democratic primary winner...

I wouldn't say that she'll be destroyed. I think this race is likely to go Dem but not a landslide. It could even stay GOP.

[RBH]

GO ERNIE GO

although since Kentucky primaries are closed and the GOP voter pool is pretty small.

That's going to be a good thing for Northup.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why didn't they poll Jonathan Miller?

Isn't Richards a very conservative Democrat?

[RBH]

Lineup of candidates in Kentucky

Republicans
Ernie Fletcher/Robbie Rudolph
Billy Harper/Dick Wilson
Anne Northup/Jeff Hoover

Democrats
Steve Beshear/Daniel Mongiardo
Gatewood Galbraith/Mark Wireman
Steve Henry/Renee True
Otis Hensley/Richard Robbins
Bruce Lunsford/Greg Stumbo
Jonathan Miller/Irv Maze
Jody Richards/John Y. Brown III

Predictions right now

Northup- 53
Fletcher- 43
Harper- 4

Beshear- 22
Miller- 20
Richards- 19
Henry- 15
Lunsford- 12
Galbraith- 9
Hensley- 3

Dem runoff
Miller- 54
Beshear- 46

Right now, No way in hell the Dem primary doesn't go to a runoff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gatewood Galbraith

!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP would've been better off getting Northup to run for her old House seat and Hal Rogers to run for Governor (didn't he consider it?). Northup isn't going to win rural blue dogs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just read up on this Gatewood Galbraith guy and he sounds like a whackjob militia-type libertarian. The type of guy who'd run as a Republican in Idaho or Montana.

[RBH]

Gatewood's electoral history

1999: Almost finished ahead of Republican Peppy Martin in the Governor's race.

2003: Got 10% or so against Stumbo and a Republican.

Gatewood has enough of a base to get 10%

Although, Gatewood Galbraith would defeat Ernie Fletcher.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How about Galbraith/bandit?

[socaldem]

One thing I'm fairly sure of--if Northup loses this race she's done. 

And with Northup completely out of the way (or, if she wins, preoccupied by gubernatorial duties), Dems will have a very good shot at winning the senate race in 2010.

[HardRCafé]

I just read up on this Gatewood Galbraith guy and he sounds like a whackjob militia-type libertarian. The type of guy who'd run as a Republican in Idaho or Montana.

No, the type of guy who'd run as a Libertarian and cost the Republican the race in Montana.

[socaldem]

I just read up on this Gatewood Galbraith guy and he sounds like a whackjob militia-type libertarian. The type of guy who'd run as a Republican in Idaho or Montana.

No, the type of guy who'd run as a Libertarian and cost the Republican the race in Montana.

Whatever happened to the blue guy running on a 3rd party ticket in Montana?

[HardRCafé]

He ran again and took about the same pathetic percentage.  Close race this time, though.

[HardRCafé]

Tester (D) 199,795
Burns (R) 196,283
Jones (L) 10,377

Source:  Brad Johnson, Montana Secretary of State

[minionofmidas]

Surprising. Northup still can win this obviously (unlike Fletcher ) but seems a much weaker candidate than I first thought.

(Of course, a single poll could be way off, and Northup could be doing better. Except that I wouldn't expect her to release the poll if it showed her way behind what she thinks she's at.)