Gerrymandering Alabama

[Mr.Phips]

I can't seem to get a picture loaded, so you will have to imagine.

I would basically shift some counties between AL-07 and AL-02 to try to make them more evenly balanced.

Current Balance:

AL-02:  67%/33% Bush-Safe Rep.
AL-07:  64%/35% Kerry-Safe Dem

First, move the string of black belt or swing counties(Wilcox, Choctaw, Marengo, the AL-07 portion of Clarke and Dallas) from AL-07 into AL-02.

Second, we compensate for this loss by moving heavily Republican Autuga and Elmore counties into AL-07 from AL-02.

New Balance:

AL-02:  58%/42% Bush-Leans Blue Dog Dem
AL-07:  55%/44% Kerry-Safe Dem

AL-07 is now 53% black rather than 62% and AL-02 is now 38% black rather than 29%.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think AL-3 could be winnable in its current form for the Democrats - at some point. 

[Mr.Phips]

I think AL-3 could be winnable in its current form for the Democrats - at some point. 

Yeah it could, and it almost was in 2002.  They just need to find a Democrat that is able to raise more money than the ones that ran in 2004 and 2006.  The candidate in 2004 raised about $6,000 and still got 39% of the vote.

[socaldem]

My Alabama gerrymander would gerrymander the hell out of Mobile County.  I would remove all the black precincts from the first district and then stretch the district from the white parts of Mobile County along the Florida border to Houston County.  I would then combine the swing counties and the black belt, Montgomery with rural AL-07 for a fairly strong majority black district.  I would extricate AL-07 from Jefferson county and make a Jefferson County district that should be at least 40% black and that could reelect Artur Davis, a similar black democrat or a moderate white Democrat.

[Mr.Phips]

My Alabama gerrymander would gerrymander the hell out of Mobile County.  I would remove all the black precincts from the first district and then stretch the district from the white parts of Mobile County along the Florida border to Houston County.  I would then combine the swing counties and the black belt, Montgomery with rural AL-07 for a fairly strong majority black district.  I would extricate AL-07 from Jefferson county and make a Jefferson County district that should be at least 40% black and that could reelect Artur Davis, a similar black democrat or a moderate white Democrat.

The problem with moving Montgomery out of AL-03 is that it would put that district out of reach for Democrats.  I would try to keep any Southern black majority district in the 50%-54% range to ensure that their votes are not wasted.