AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

AZ will be a nuclear holocaust for the GOP this year. I expect them to lose everything: presidential race, senate race, and the state legislature. Confident Schweikert loses. Ciscomani is iffier.

That would be beyond awesome but I'll believe it when I see it.

To be fair the dems only need to flip one seat in each chamber to take control, which for the record would be the first time since 1966 that democrats had the trifecta.

[Blair]

Amazing to see Arizona essentially doing a Virginia speed run

[Spectator]

Amazing to see Arizona essentially doing a Virginia speed run

I don’t think we’ve seen any state go from reliably red for President, Governor and Senate to electing Democrats to all those offices in a short time. Arizona it only took four years to flip. Virginia took from 2001-2008 for that to happen. Colorado I guess counts? 2004-2008 saw that happen there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Amazing to see Arizona essentially doing a Virginia speed run

I don’t think we’ve seen any state go from reliably red for President, Governor and Senate to electing Democrats to all those offices in a short time. Arizona it only took four years to flip. Virginia took from 2001-2008 for that to happen. Colorado I guess counts? 2004-2008 saw that happen there.

And the opposite happened in Arkansas, West Virginia.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Can Kari Lake please stop grifting and start being a productive Republican?

Furthermore, can Republicans please prepare for the upcoming ballot measure, and get their names out there? Ballotpedia shows a full Republican slate on record as being opposed to Ohio Issue 1 last year, but Republican presence was seriously hit-or-miss in the 2022 votes and I cannot recall any coverage whatsoever of any serious anti-abortion campaigning in Ohio or elsewhere, even if just for the ballot measure's sake rather than to help (or hurt) the candidate.

For reminder's sake, the pro-abortion side on each Reproductive Freedom vote so far has been driven by massive media attention, full-throated Democratic support, a broad donor base, and some of the most effective campaigning in recent ballot-measure history; the anti-abortion side has been driven by a handful of dedicated think tanks and Catholic dioceses with loads of cash to spare.

If nothing changes, then the Yes side in Arizona will be playing EA Sports FC 25 while the No side plays tic-tac-toe. This keeps happening in state after state after state, no matter what some Republicans say about abortion being a state issue. I am sure that almost everyone will either want to find out, or fear finding out, what happens when a No campaign puts just as much energy behind itself as the Yes campaign does.

The sad truth is a lot of the pro-life faction of the GOP are awful people who either have two goals:
1) Keep losing elections so they can sell their "I am glad I had a rape baby" speech to conventions
2) Force through bans on IVF, and complete and total abortion bans with no exceptions. It's despicable and pure evil, and instead of trying to appeal to voters locally, they want to side step that and jam it through Congress because they know its unpopular with almost any sane person in the country.

I'm sure there are some good people who do want to compromise on the issue, but the religous nutjobs are holding everyone hostage because they want to force their model theocracy on the rest of us. If the 15 week compromise wasn't struck down, then I probably wouldn't have voted for the ballot measure. But now I don't think I really even have a choice anymore.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO she is so desperate. She knows she's screwed

https://twitter.com/alaynatreene/status/1778520951099171204

[mtvoter]

Amazing to see Arizona essentially doing a Virginia speed run

I don’t think we’ve seen any state go from reliably red for President, Governor and Senate to electing Democrats to all those offices in a short time. Arizona it only took four years to flip. Virginia took from 2001-2008 for that to happen. Colorado I guess counts? 2004-2008 saw that happen there.

And the opposite happened in Arkansas, West Virginia.

No, because the last dem presidential candidate won WV in 1996, the last governor in 2011, and the last senator in 2018. That's a span of over 2 decades.

AZ went dem for all president/senate/gov from 2018 to 2022.

[Steve from Lambeth]

LMAO she is so desperate. She knows she's screwed

https://twitter.com/alaynatreene/status/1778520951099171204

[The Mikado]

Out of curiosity, since the state legislature was mentioned above, both its chambers have even numbers of seats and a 30-30 House or a 15-15 Senate seems realistic outcomes. What does AZ do for ties?

[Storr]

Out of curiosity, since the state legislature was mentioned above, both its chambers have even numbers of seats and a 30-30 House or a 15-15 Senate seems realistic outcomes. What does AZ do for ties?

"The divided power contract. Used by the Arizona Senate (2000), Minnesota House (1978), North Dakota House (1976), Oregon Senate (2002), and Virginia Senate (1995) and House (1997). These agreements divide the power between the parties. Under this form of power-sharing, one party selects the presiding officer, the other the chair(s) of the most powerful committee(s); lesser committee chairs alternate party affiliation."

https://www.ncsl.org/resources/details/in-case-of-a-tie

[The Mikado]

Reread the first five or six pages of this thread any time you need a reminder of who here has a good idea of what's going on.

[Yoda]

Reread the first five or six pages of this thread any time you need a reminder of who here has a good idea of what's going on.

Thanks for that. That was a hilarious and enlightening reread.

[The Mikado]

In Q1 2024:

Lake raised 4.1 million, has 2.5 million on hand
Gallego raised 7.5 million, has 9.6 million on hand

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/14/kari-lake-fundraising-arizona-senate

[wbrocks67]

Lake is cooked at this point, she's just truly an F-tier candidate.

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1780396596582080798

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1780307998566383746

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1780558021476659328

[xavier110]

Things are going swimmingly at the Capitol, where Republicans still can’t repeal the damn law…

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1780662412255072451?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the S map

[Yoda]

In Q1 2024:

Lake raised 4.1 million, has 2.5 million on hand
Gallego raised 7.5 million, has 9.6 million on hand

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/14/kari-lake-fundraising-arizona-senate

1 - Great numbers. Gallego is gonna crush this MAGAt

2 - This reminded me I still need to donate to him, as well as Senators Brown and Tester. Off to ActBlue I go....

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/TerribleMaps/status/1781061718531088542

[GeorgiaModerate]

So much for that "moderation":

Kari Lake Wants Arizona Sheriffs to Enforce 1864 Abortion Ban

[All Along The Watchtower]

This is gonna be a layup for Democrats isn’t it

[wbrocks67]

What is she even doing? lol

She really dropped the 'oh the AZ ban is not good' act after about 3 days

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1782380216993608058

[Sir Mohamed]

What is she even doing? lol

She really dropped the 'oh the AZ ban is not good' act after about 3 days

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1782380216993608058

If you google "how to lose a pivotal senate race", a picture of Kari Lake will show up first.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What is she even doing? lol

She really dropped the 'oh the AZ ban is not good' act after about 3 days

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1782380216993608058

If you google "how to lose a pivotal senate race", a picture of Kari Lake will show up first.

Hey don’t disrespect Oz’s death throws of a campaign like that

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/TerribleMaps/status/1781061718531088542

can't believe @terriblemaps would go woke