Poll: Are there second chances in politics?

[socaldem]

Oops, I forgot to allow for more than one vote!

Which rematches will turn out differently in '08 than they did in '06?

Which races are going to actually be rematches?  Will the candidates run and/or win their primaries?

Am I missing any?

[Verily]

Realistically, only NJ-07, NC-08 and FL-16 have serious chances of turning out differently as rematches of the ones mentioned.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Doolittle gets the Republican nomination again, I could see that one changing. Some of the other races already had the Republican win in 2004 and the Democrat win in 2006, like McNerney vs. Pombo and Hodes vs. Bradley.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

CA-04: Only if Doolittle gets indicted or deeper in scandal. I don't really care since the GOP will easily retake that seat in 2010 anyway.
CA-11: McNerney better hope Pombo is his opponent since a generic Republican will be much tougher. Pombo is finished.
FL-12: Maybe, but the district is pretty Republican. Jennings shouldn't have even come that close/won
FL-16: Definitely likely
GA-08: nope
ID-01: Sali can lose, but we need a better candidate than Grant. Also not likely in a mid-term.
IL-10: No. Kirk is pretty popular and Seals isn't that good of a candidate. Watch out for redistricting though.
KS-02: Boyda has a better chance then she would against a generic Republican.
NC-08: Real possibility.
NH-01: Possible, but I'd give Shea-Porter the edge.
NJ-07: No. Damn gerrymandered monstrosity...
NV-03: No, but Porter can lose to a stronger Dem candidate.
PA-04: Possible, but I'd give Altmire the edge.
PA-08: Possible, but I'd give Murphy the edge.
WY-AL: Cubin won't lose in a presidential year. I hope Fruedenthal takes her out in 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

How do you even know that all of these guys are running again?

[Verily]

Bradley, Kissell, Grant and Ryun (and maybe Trauner, I seem to remember something along those lines) have announced that they plan to run in 2008. Some, like Negron, have explicitly said that they will not run in 2008.

[Mr.Phips]

Bradley, Kissell, Grant and Ryun (and maybe Trauner, I seem to remember something along those lines) have announced that they plan to run in 2008. Some, like Negron, have explicitly said that they will not run in 2008.

OK, I knew about Bradley, Kissell, Grant, an Ryun, but don't know about the others.

[adam]

If Bill Sali makes an ass of himself in congress, I could see him losing to Grant in a rematch.

[Keystone Phil]

Fitz beats Murphy is the more likely of the two PA choices so I voted for that one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Sali is more vulnerable in the primary. He only got like 26% in a very crowded one, and we can tell that a significant number of those that voted against him refused to accept him even in the general.

[Gabu]

If Bill Sali makes will make an ass of himself in congress

I don't see any possible way that he won't.

[Verily]

Bradley, Kissell, Grant and Ryun (and maybe Trauner, I seem to remember something along those lines) have announced that they plan to run in 2008. Some, like Negron, have explicitly said that they will not run in 2008.

OK, I knew about Bradley, Kissell, Grant, an Ryun, but don't know about the others.

I've done a bit more research. Jennings says she will run in 2008 even if her court case is unsuccessful; Collins will not run in 2008.

Personally, I think it's unlikely that Pombo, Seals, Fitzpatrick and Hart will run again. I don't know enough about Hafen and Brown to say whether they're likely to run again. Brown probably only will if Doolittle gets into more trouble.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Brown probably only will if Doolittle gets into more trouble.

He has. Whether it's enough for him to get dumped remains to be seen, California Republicans tend to be very partisan.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You should've also included CT-02

[socaldem]

How do you even know that all of these guys are running again?

Some of the candidates have already announced.  Some like Seals and Hafen will probably not run again.  Others like ex-rep. Ryun may run again but lose the primary.

You should've also included CT-02

Well, I'll have to redo this poll properly at somepoint and include that race.  other than that I think I've included nearly all possible "credible" rematches. 


In any case, my thoughts:

CA-04: Brown has indicated that he is running again.  This is a very GOP district, though.  Doolittle is, indeed, mired in scandal.  Brown had a late start last time and with some cash and more campaigning, he can very well make up the 4 points necessary.  Plus with Doolittle out of the majority and under investigation, he has less influence and will have a hard time replenishing his coffers.  '06 also wasn't the best year for CA dems because of the Scwarzenegger landslide.  Brown might actually have better support from the top of the ticket in '08.  Finally, the district is slowly trending Dem, which might just mean an extra point or two for Brown in the next few years.  I think this is a toss-up.

CA-11: Ditto what others have said on Pombo.  I doubt he'll run especially since he can make big $$ lobbying for his extraction industry friends.  Pombo is about the worst and most unelectable GOPer possible.  Assemblyman Guy Houston, the likely recruit, has some baggage, too, though it pales in comparison to Pombo's antics.

CT-02: Simmons may run but I don't think he'd win.  I think there's less than 50% chance he runs and less than 40% chance he'd win.

FL-13: I think Vern Buchanan could face a primary challenge.  If he faces Jennings again, it could be very close, though Jennings is really old.  I'm not sure she'll run.  I'd like to seem some of the newly elected Dem state reps run for the seat in a few years.

FL-16: Negron is running.  I think it'll be depend on the dynamics of the Presidential race but I think the seat is lean GOP.  I think it and TX-22 are the near-sure GOP take-backs.

GA-08: If Marshall runs, Mac Collins sits out.  If Marshall opts for senate, Collins will run.

ID-01: Grant is running.  He says he's committed and will have a lot of material to work with since Sali voted against each of the popular Dem proposals.  Remember ID-01 has a strong populist tradition and votes against the minimum wage, etc., shouldn't sit well.  Hopefully Grant is a better candidate this time around.  I hope, too, Sali faces a spirited and unsuccessful primary challenge.

IL-10: I doubt Seals runs.  If Dems can recruit State Sen. Susan Garrett we're talking.

KS-02: I pray that Jim Ryun is the GOP nominee.  That would vastly improve Boyda's chances for reelection.

NC-08: Larry Kissell is a fascinating candidate.  We'll see what he can do with a little support.  He's NC's Tim Walz.

NH-01: Since the seat is a toss-up Shea-Porter (unlike Boyda) may very well be able to hold on against most challenges.  Bradley, though, would probably be easier to defeat than other potential GOPers.

NJ-07: I think Stender might run again and I think she'd have a good chance given a little Presidential coattail action.  Menendez wasnt exactly the best top-of-the-ticket Dem to run with.

NV-03: Hafen probably won't run.  I hope Dems find another decent candidate and not an embarrassment a la Dario Herrera.

PA-04: Hart may run but I don't think she'd win.  It might be close.

PA-08: I think Fitzpatrick is less likely to run again than Hart and less likely to win a rematch, too, even though the margin by which he lost was much less.

WY-AL: People seem to be expecting Trauner to run again.  And he gave some indications of that.  But he's been mia since the election, so who knows.

[AndrewTX]

I would put money on Rob Simmons running again in CT-02, and him winning.

  He was the most vunrable Congressman, considering his district was the most democrat seat held by a republican, only to lose by under 100 votes in a democratic wave. I think he makes a comeback in 2008, and pulls it off.

[Keystone Phil]

PA-04: Hart may run but I don't think she'd win.  It might be close.

PA-08: I think Fitzpatrick is less likely to run again than Hart and less likely to win a rematch, too, even though the margin by which he lost was much less.

Both are running again but I know for a fact that Fitz is definetley in the race.

[adam]

If Bill Sali makes will make an ass of himself in congress

I don't see any possible way that he won't.

Good point. If I am lucky, perhaps he will be replaced in the primary by a more desirable Republican. Otherwise...I would put money on the district turning over in the next election.

[Mr.Phips]

I would put money on Rob Simmons running again in CT-02, and him winning.

  He was the most vunrable Congressman, considering his district was the most democrat seat held by a republican, only to lose by under 100 votes in a democratic wave. I think he makes a comeback in 2008, and pulls it off.

I don't think so.  Ken Lucas could not make a comeback in a district that was as Republican as CT-02 is Democratic.  Especially in a Presidential year.

[Verily]

I would put money on Rob Simmons running again in CT-02, and him winning.

  He was the most vunrable Congressman, considering his district was the most democrat seat held by a republican, only to lose by under 100 votes in a democratic wave. I think he makes a comeback in 2008, and pulls it off.

I don't think so.  Ken Lucas could not make a comeback in a district that was as Republican as CT-02 is Democratic.  Especially in a Presidential year.

Moreover, Lucas had retired, whereas Simmons was actually defeated. He wouldn't stand a chance in 2008, and by 2010 he'll be stale.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Part of the problem with Lucas was that he was just too damn old to run as an effective challenger. How old is Simmons?

[Sam Spade]

Part of the problem with Lucas was that he was just too damn old to run as an effective challenger. How old is Simmons?

He'll be 64 on February 11.

[Speed of Sound]

Second chances in politics? Ask John Kerry.

[Sam Spade]

Second chances in politics? Ask John Kerry.

Is that supposed to be good or bad? 

[socaldem]

Well I guess Joe Negron has announced he's not running so we aren't going to see that rematch.  I suppose it shouldn't really have counted as a rematch anyway.

So who's going to face Tim Mahoney then?  I hope its a nasty right-winger...