Louisiana 2003

[Ryan]

I predict Jindal will get 50.4% and Blanco 49.6% of the vote in the 15 Nov runoff.

I Agree, to sum up my prediction, I choose Jindal and a vote breakup of 51%R- 49%D as most likely.

As to furthur analysis, like most contemporary races, turnout will decide this race especially black turn out. I do not anticipate any significant inroads into the black vote for Jindal despite several high-profile endorsements from black leaders. (like Mayor Nagin of New Orleans)

What could happen however is that black turnout may be low. Blanco hasn't given them any huge reason to turn out FOR her. The only reason to turn out is to vote AGAINST Jindal. If they feel they don't have a good enough reason to fear the GOP candidate winning; that would assure Jindals victory. As the black turnout goes up Jindals chances go down as Blanco has been making inroads among voters a GOP candidate would be expected to carry and Foster did by large margins the last time. White women especially married women head this list for obvious reasons.

Its still not a done deal but I do see a slight momemntum for Jindal

[Ryan]

It looks like Blanco won. Jindel still has a slim chance of winning, but I think this is a win for the dems!!!

No chance of winning I'm afraid
With 96 percent of precincts counted, Blanco had 52 percent, or 703,226 votes, to Jindal's 48 percent, or 658,806. Thats the bar in Louisiana. There are no precincts left with a strong enough republican edge to ensure a Jindal win.
K. Blanco is the next Governor.

[Ryan]

Well, that's done, congratulations to all those who called the race right. This is the first statewide race I called wrong since 2000 (even with my strong conditionals as to factors affecting the results)

Damn. I'd gladly have had a dozen wrong elsewhere and had got this right I take it everyone knows my stake in the race.

Still there are compensating factors. First as to Louisiana itself, while Blanco cannot do as good a job as Jindal would have, she is a conservative and honest, so that's not a bad start.

As to the rest, while I am not going to spin this as a "win" for the GOP by any chance, its part of an ever growing record of actions by both the leadership and base of the party to embrace qualified minorities for public office.
As to electability, we now have a record of 48% for a non-white candidate statewide in Louisiana and that is a great start.

As to Jindal himself let no-one forget he still has decades of public service left in him. Perhaps it wasn't his time yet but I think we haven't seen the last of Bobby Jindal

[Ryan]

Congratulations to Blanco! I must admit I'm surprised by this result. But I doubt this is the last we'll have heard of Jindal, as GWBFan mentioned a Senate run shouldn't be out of the question.

Well there's nothing I would love more than to see Jindal in the Senate but I dont see it happening next year. IF (likely but not certain) John Breaux retires next year, Rep. David Vitter is very likely going to be the nominee. He has been laying the foundation for some time.

I dont know about the house but otherwise I see Jindal running for Governor in 2007 or Senate in 2008. However I can safely say that we will all hear more of him in the meantime.

[Ryan]

<<This is an excellent result for Lousiana. The state that nearly elected David Duke has elected a Woman and has given a minority candidate 48% of the vote

Ryan,
How are race relations in Louisiana?
I think David Duke got 40% in a runoff for Governor in 1991. Do you think La. has shut the door on candidates like that?
----

Well, lets say they are not much better but definitely not worse than other Deep South states. There is still an underlying tension and even open dislike between a large number of whites AND blacks (no one way street here) Still for one, you don't see that many signs of open hatred among at least 90% of both communities.

Secondly though integration in housing could be better, in many suburban upper middle class neighborhoods blacks and whites live together a whole lot better than at many places in the North

So to sum up it's been improving by leaps and bounds over the last few years but still has a long way to go.

As to Duke, many people assume he got his 40% of the vote on a stridently racist platform. (and therefore that 40% were thoroughly racist too) He didn't and they weren't. He wasn't pushing racism quite that hard though he didn't disown it completely either.

Basically he ran as the conservative candidate in the race and people voted for him because of that. Remember the alternative was anathema to many people!

So the matter of shame and sorrow (no jokes here) is NOT that 40% of people voted for him DUE to his racism but that they voted for him INSPITE of it- that the fact that he has such a horrible record did NOT turn them off.

Could it happen again?? Well I dunno. I think I could say that he wouldn't get 40% of the vote but even as much as 25% - not impossible.

Again most of those people would not vote for him FOR his racism but INSPITE of it and that's a sad enough thing. Hopefully in the near future all such ideologies and actions will become completely unacceptable and would disqualify a candidate in the public mind!

[Ryan]

So, to sum up what happened the day before, first, I was wrong, but it was the factors I mentioned as a problem which caused that.

If you recall I said that

turnout will decide this race especially black turn out. I do not anticipate any significant inroads into the black vote for Jindal despite several high-profile endorsements from black leaders. (like Mayor Nagin of New Orleans)

What could happen however is that black turnout may be low. Blanco hasn't given them any huge reason to turn out FOR her. The only reason to turn out is to vote AGAINST Jindal. If they feel they don't have a good enough reason to fear the GOP candidate winning; that would assure Jindals victory. As the black turnout goes up Jindals chances go down as Blanco has been making inroads among voters a GOP candidate would be expected to carry and Foster did by large margins the last time. White women especially married women head this list for obvious reasons.

Its still not a done deal but I do see a slight momentum for Jindal

Black turnout WAS a decider. In the primary, only 45 percent of the state's black voters turned out, and that too with 2-3 candidates that blacks strongly supported in the race. It was believed that it would fall below 40% for the run-off.
Saturday, that rate climbed to 46 percent. Blanco won 91 percent support among those black voters and that decided the race.

As I predicted Blanco did make gains among white voters of whom she polled 40%.............. Wayyyy higher than the last gubernatorial election.

And I do believe until the final week Jindal DID have the momentum. He lost in at the last moment because his campaign wasn't savvy enough
To quote from an article which I agree with;
Blanco and the Democratic Party also went after Jindal hard on his lack of political experience and the cuts that were made while he was head of the Department of Health and Hospitals, suggesting that he cared more about the bottom line than about the welfare of the state's residents.

Jindal's supporters agreed with the Blanco camp that the deadly flaw in their candidate's campaign was that he didn't react quickly or aggressively enough to Blanco's attack ads in the final days.

"Obviously you have to respond when you're attacked," said Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Metairie. "He was attacked on a number of fronts, and I don't think the response was quick enough."

Jindal made a tactical mistake in not answering the criticism of his record except to accuse Blanco of running a negative campaign, which after time smacked of whining.

Thus I still believe that this was an avoidable loss but no matter, there will be another day for Bobby Jindal :-)