Louisiana 2003

[rbt48]

I predict Jindal will get 50.4% and Blanco 49.6% of the vote in the 15 Nov runoff.

[rbt48]

Latest return from LA Secretary of State is:
699,051 51.9% Kathleen Babineaux Blanco  -  
648,736 48.1% "Bobby" Jindal  
with 4,032 of 4,143 precincts reporting.  98 of the missing 111 precincts are from Jefferson Parish where Jindal has 71% of the vote, so the final margin might whittle down to 51 to 49%.

The Attorney General race on the primary night (with Susie Terrell losing 54 to 46%) probably gave a good indication of the dilemma the Republicans faced this year.

[rbt48]

I had heard some rumblings that if a Democrat replaced Foster in Louisiana, Breaux might even resign his seat once the new governor is in place.  Now that we know it will be Blanco, let's see what happens.  If so, it would give a Democrat the advantage of incumbency come next November.  I think Vitter would be the likely Republican nominee if Breaux decides not to run.  Maybe if Breaux does stick around, Vitter will keep his safe seat and Jindal would make the long shot run against the entrenched Breaux.  I don't see Jindal or any Republican making a serious run for the LA governorship in 2007.  Blanco will be hard to beat as an incumbent.  Maybe Jindal will try for a House seat next.

Yes, Louisiana is very much in play for any Democrat to the right of Dean, Sharpton, etc.

[rbt48]

The map appears misleading (compared to the 52-48% margin because all the rural counties that Blanco carried have relatively small populations.  The "suburban" counties that Jindal carried had large numbers of voters.

Say Ryan, since you are on scene, can you report how the new partisan balance will be in the state legislature?  I saw on the Secretary of State's website that a few runoff races were extremely close and perhaps not yet decided.  I show the old balance in the State Senate at 26D, 13R, and in the lower house, 68D, 36R, and 1 Ind.
Thanks!

[rbt48]

Regarding Breaux and his Senate seat, this information came to me from CQ today:  
"Also in CQ POLITICS DAILY, Sen. John B. Breaux, D-La., says he will
discuss his political future with his family over the Thanksgiving holiday
before announcing whether he will seek a fourth Senate term in 2004. "That
fits within Breaux's previously stated time frame: He had said that he
would make an announcement sometime between Nov. 15 -- the date of
Louisiana's general election for governor -- and Dec. 15."  Leaders of
both parties are anxiously awaiting his decision. Breaux, one of the more
conservative Senate Democrats, is highly popular, taking 64 percent of the
vote in his last election. "A competitive race would be expected, though,
if Breaux does not run." Among possible candidates are two House members,
1st District Republican David Vitter and 7th District Democrat Chris John.
'Breaux has put one issue to rest: He will at least serve out the
remainder of his current term, which expires in January 2005. There were
rumors that he was considering stepping down early to pursue private
sector opportunities.' "