Louisiana 2003

[DarthKosh]

I predict Jindal will get 50.4% and Blanco 49.6% of the vote in the 15 Nov runoff.

I Agree, to sum up my prediction, I choose Jindal and a vote breakup of 51%R- 49%D as most likely.

As to furthur analysis, like most contemporary races, turnout will decide this race especially black turn out. I do not anticipate any significant inroads into the black vote for Jindal despite several high-profile endorsements from black leaders. (like Mayor Nagin of New Orleans)

What could happen however is that black turnout may be low. Blanco hasn't given them any huge reason to turn out FOR her. The only reason to turn out is to vote AGAINST Jindal. If they feel they don't have a good enough reason to fear the GOP candidate winning; that would assure Jindals victory. As the black turnout goes up Jindals chances go down as Blanco has been making inroads among voters a GOP candidate would be expected to carry and Foster did by large margins the last time. White women especially married women head this list for obvious reasons.

Its still not a done deal but I do see a slight momemntum for Jindal

I don't see where black turnout will be very high.