MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just remember MI polling have an R bias sometimes PA and Bush W was competetive in both and Kerry won PA and WI by 2 and MI by 4 and Bush W was ahead in WI by 9, MI 4 , R polling bias that's what's going on in Siena EPIC MRA HAD DEVOS AHEAD OF GRANHOLM

Nevermind Redban whom only comes on when Trump is ahead but it's also RV not LV and Tralfafer polls LV not RV which will come late next yr not now

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1721508691285832024
How to alienate all components of your party at once.

Remember that the impeachment was mostly about barring Trump from future runs, the trial didn't even happen until Trump was out of office. So a vote to impeach was effectively a vote to ban him from holding the office ever again.

So he's saying that he voted to ban Trump from the presidency...but that he would also support him anyway.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1721508691285832024

How to alienate all components of your party at once.

“I think he’s learned his lesson!”
-Sen. Collins Rep. Meijer

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1721508691285832024
How to alienate all components of your party at once.

Remember that the impeachment was mostly about barring Trump from future runs, the trial didn't even happen until Trump was out of office. So a vote to impeach was effectively a vote to ban him from holding the office ever again.

So he's saying that he voted to ban Trump from the presidency...but that he would also support him anyway.

Yeah, sometimes I question why I had faifth in some of these so-called "moderate Rs" to begin with; ultimately they just do what they see as best for their political future and not neccessarily what is right or what they believe in.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1723880722371342492

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Stabenow retired to give Slotkin a better shot Emerson already polled this race its Lean D

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1723880722371342492

Is he the GOP frontrunner? 2024 could yet become another disastrous cycle for GOP senate candidates, just as 2022 was. In some states it almost seems as if they're not even trying anymore.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1721508691285832024
How to alienate all components of your party at once.

Remember that the impeachment was mostly about barring Trump from future runs, the trial didn't even happen until Trump was out of office. So a vote to impeach was effectively a vote to ban him from holding the office ever again.

So he's saying that he voted to ban Trump from the presidency...but that he would also support him anyway.

Yeah, sometimes I question why I had faifth in some of these so-called "moderate Rs" to begin with; ultimately they just do what they see as best for their political future and not neccessarily what is right or what they believe in.

This. Sadly Meijer lacks the sense of principle that his predecessor in Congress possessed.

[wbrocks67]

Once a mess, always a mess!

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1724849464324608385

[Horus]

AIPAC tried to buy out Hill Harper - it didn't work.

https://twitter.com/hillharper/status/1727391882706378781?t=m9lsZM3stlqgW8A2UQV-...

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Man, major respect to Harper for that move. I'm no fan of Tlaib but I think we ought to have fewer divisive primaries amongst Democrats; if someone wants to run against Tlaib, they ought to do so of their own volition.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Man, major respect to Harper for that move. I'm no fan of Tlaib but I think we ought to have fewer divisive primaries amongst Democrats; if someone wants to run against Tlaib, they ought to do so of their own volition.

Agreed, assuming this is actually true (him making a claim is not proof and I’d want to see actual evidence for a claim like this).  That I said, I still think he’s an unqualified, carpetbagger who’d lose by double-digits in a GE and is running a pointless vanity campaign.  The irony of this if it is true is that he’d be a very weak opponent against Tlaib.  He’s a random carpetbagger with delusions of grandeur.  It’s gonna take more than that to unseat Tlaib imo.

[Horus]

Man, major respect to Harper for that move. I'm no fan of Tlaib but I think we ought to have fewer divisive primaries amongst Democrats; if someone wants to run against Tlaib, they ought to do so of their own volition.

Agreed, assuming this is actually true (him making a claim is not proof and I’d want to see actual evidence for a claim like this).  That I said, I still think he’s an unqualified, carpetbagger who’d lose by double-digits in a GE and is running a pointless vanity campaign.  The irony of this if it is true is that he’d be a very weak opponent against Tlaib.  He’s a random carpetbagger with delusions of grandeur.  It’s gonna take more than that to unseat Tlaib imo.

In 2020 you kept trying to say that Matt Lieberman would be a better candidate than Warnock so forgive me for not taking your opinion seriously here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mr. X thought that Warnock would be a weak candidate (as well as Fetterman), and Horus thought that Kanye West would doom Biden and that Lil Wayne's endorsement (along with that Tucker Carlson missing flash drive thing and Trump catching COVID a few weeks before the election) were also going to doom the election for Biden. Both have utterly and completely whiffed.

[Horus]

Mr. X thought that Warnock would be a weak candidate (as well as Fetterman), and Horus thought that Kanye West would doom Biden and that Lil Wayne's endorsement (along with that Tucker Carlson missing flash drive thing and Trump catching COVID a few weeks before the election) were also going to doom the election for Biden. Both have utterly and completely whiffed.

My final prediction got 49/50 states right.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mr. X thought that Warnock would be a weak candidate (as well as Fetterman), and Horus thought that Kanye West would doom Biden and that Lil Wayne's endorsement (along with that Tucker Carlson missing flash drive thing and Trump catching COVID a few weeks before the election) were also going to doom the election for Biden. Both have utterly and completely whiffed.

My final prediction got 49/50 states right.

Then why were you raving about Lil Wayne and Tucker's flash drive just a few weeks prior?

[Horus]

Mr. X thought that Warnock would be a weak candidate (as well as Fetterman), and Horus thought that Kanye West would doom Biden and that Lil Wayne's endorsement (along with that Tucker Carlson missing flash drive thing and Trump catching COVID a few weeks before the election) were also going to doom the election for Biden. Both have utterly and completely whiffed.

My final prediction got 49/50 states right.

Then why were you raving about Lil Wayne and Tucker's flash drive just a few weeks prior?

A lot can change in a few weeks.

And one post isn't raving about anything.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mr. X thought that Warnock would be a weak candidate (as well as Fetterman), and Horus thought that Kanye West would doom Biden and that Lil Wayne's endorsement (along with that Tucker Carlson missing flash drive thing and Trump catching COVID a few weeks before the election) were also going to doom the election for Biden. Both have utterly and completely whiffed.

At the time I made that comment about Warnock (many months before the election), he wasn’t even cracking double-digits IIRC or was barely doing so, the domestic violence allegation hadn’t been debunked yet, and he hadn’t started running a competent campaign yet.  No one thought this was an even remotely competitive race yet, it was so early.

I also nailed most of the 2022 races including all the Senate elections and the final margin in the House.  All due respect, but I’m pretty sure my track record is a hell of a lot better than yours.  I said I was wrong about Fetterman being a weaker candidate than Lamb, but I acknowledged that even before the primary election.

It is extremely disingenuous and misleading of you to present those comments as anything close to final predictions.  Especially Pennsylvania, I was extremely consistent throughout the GE campaign that Fetterman would win, even when most red avatars were bed-wetting after the debate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mr. X thought that Warnock would be a weak candidate (as well as Fetterman), and Horus thought that Kanye West would doom Biden and that Lil Wayne's endorsement (along with that Tucker Carlson missing flash drive thing and Trump catching COVID a few weeks before the election) were also going to doom the election for Biden. Both have utterly and completely whiffed.

At the time I made that comment about Warnock (many months before the election), he wasn’t even cracking double-digits IIRC or was barely doing so, the domestic violence allegation hadn’t been debunked yet, and he hadn’t started running a competent campaign yet.  No one thought this was an even remotely competitive race yet, it was so early.

I also nailed most of the 2022 races including all the Senate elections and the final margin in the House.  All due respect, but I’m pretty sure my track record is a hell of a lot better than yours.  I said I was wrong about Fetterman being a weaker candidate than Lamb, but I acknowledged that even before the primary election

I was literally 35/35 in the Senate and 36/36 on governors.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mr. X thought that Warnock would be a weak candidate (as well as Fetterman), and Horus thought that Kanye West would doom Biden and that Lil Wayne's endorsement (along with that Tucker Carlson missing flash drive thing and Trump catching COVID a few weeks before the election) were also going to doom the election for Biden. Both have utterly and completely whiffed.

At the time I made that comment about Warnock (many months before the election), he wasn’t even cracking double-digits IIRC or was barely doing so, the domestic violence allegation hadn’t been debunked yet, and he hadn’t started running a competent campaign yet.  No one thought this was an even remotely competitive race yet, it was so early.

I also nailed most of the 2022 races including all the Senate elections and the final margin in the House.  All due respect, but I’m pretty sure my track record is a hell of a lot better than yours.  I said I was wrong about Fetterman being a weaker candidate than Lamb, but I acknowledged that even before the primary election

I was literally 35/35 in the Senate and 36/36 on governors.

I was 35/35 on Senate and 35/36 on governors.  However, I also nailed the margin in the House.  So let me modify that from “a hell of a lot better” to simply “better than yours”

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you guys want to have a measuring contest on your past predictions, make it a separate thread.  It's derailing this one.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If you guys want to have a measuring contest on your past predictions, make it a separate thread.  It's derailing this one.

Fair enough

[MT Treasurer]

If you guys want to have a measuring contest on your past predictions, make it a separate thread.  It's derailing this one.

It’s also — if you’ll permit this final observation — disingenuous of BRTD to routinely attack other posters for certain wrong predictions they made in the past when he himself only got lucky in 2022 because he always predicts sweeping Democratic victories:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2020/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2020/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=606

(this should suffice?)

Guess what? When you always predict a sweep for your party, you’re bound to get it right eventually, but that doesn’t mean that you actually invested a lot of your thought in your predictions.

The truth is that everybody on this forum has made some good and some not-so-good/downright awful calls in the past. Habitually attacking others for some random online predictions on an obscure Internet forum so that you get your daily ego boost when you don’t have much to show for yourself is hardly the sign of a self-confident person.

(I didn’t want to further derail this thread, but since he does this all the time, I felt like it needed to be pointed out.)  

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PamelaPughMI/status/1729143267889967407?t=2XWtYEPiBh8OkU6fG8...

Board of education president Pugh out of this race, in on the open congressional seat.

[Atlas Force]

Looks like Harper will just consolidate the progressive/outsider vote then. We'll see if it's enough.