2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

Nunn is definitely someone I think outruns Trump this year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

Oops my bad; still had the right district in my mind just wrong label.

Will be interesting to see if Biden can eke out a victory in the real IA-03 this year though. In 2020, Trump carried the district by the skin of his teeth, but the district contains basically all of Ds Moones and its suburbs which is one of the few parts of the state where Dems haven’t fallen off a cliff and in some cases seen gains in recent years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1778426275335471509

[wbrocks67]

PA-07 is Lean D and I stand by that.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1778536288083497057

[GeorgiaModerate]

ROFL:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1779917876788650113

[Nyvin]

This seems incredibly low for what's essentially a district in the NYC metro.  Are the GOP just triaging this race this early?

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1780034007180460399

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

This seems incredibly low for what's essentially a district in the NYC metro.  Are the GOP just triaging this race this early?

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1780034007180460399

He spent a little less than his COH number through the entire 2022 race

source: https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2022

He should have more than enough many to compete.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1780289873997422755

Boebert looks a lot tougher to beat than she did when she first moved districts at the start of the year, though it’s less about her own strength as a candidate (her fundraising is down a lot from where it used to be) than the fecklessness of the opposition. No R candidate in CO-04 other than Boebert hit 200k in fundraising this quarter, though some of the Dems in the race did.

That being said, Boebert in CO-04 could be a long term nightmare for the GOP. CO-04 is Trump+18 and stampeding leftward, it could be down to Trump+10 or so this year. It would be in their best interests to oust her in the primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1780382332962168917

[wbrocks67]

The fundraising performance of Moreno, Rogers and Hovde in particular was truly embarrassing (barely $1M each- sans personal loans)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1780558021476659328

[wbrocks67]

AZ-06 was a bit overdue, Ciscomani barely won in 2022 - should've always been tossup. Engel's latest fundraising was wow though

[Yoda]

Sherrod Brown is an absolute monster. Moreno has no idea what he's gotten himself into. This race gives me PA '22 vibes. A lot of posters on this forum believed (foolishly, IMO) that Dr. Oz was the favorite in that race for some reason. Ohio is more republican than PA, of course, but Brown is also a far stronger candidate than Fetterman was.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1780382332962168917

Btw, there's an error on that tweet. Cruz raised $6.9 million, not 9.7.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1780382332962168917

Btw, there's an error on that tweet. Cruz raised $6.9 million, not 9.7.

Ouch!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats took the lead on RCP's generic ballot tracker. It currently stands at D +1.4 (45.2-43.8%).

They've also widened their lead on 538's tracker to +0.8 (44.6-43.8%).

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/purrtah/status/1786337397502103849

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/purrtah/status/1786337397502103849

But Democrats don't care about the abortion ban!

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/purrtah/status/1786337397502103849

But Democrats don't care about the abortion ban!

They'll vote for Engel, but some won't vote for Biden.

[Roll Roons]

CLF's first fall reservations:

$20.7 million in New York City
Includes three tracks on NYC broadcast TV
Includes cable in NY-17 and NY-18
$18.2 million in Los Angeles
Includes three tracks on LA broadcast TV
Includes cable in CA-27
$6.5 million in Fresno-Visalia
Includes two tracks on Fresno-Visalia broadcast TV
Includes $1.26 million in Spanish-language media
$6.2 million in Raleigh-Durham
$5.8 million in Phoenix
$5.8 million in Tucson
$5.6 million in Wilkes Barre-Scranton
$5.5 million in Portland, OR
$5.4 million in Philadelphia
$5.1 million in Denver
$5.1 million in Detroit
$4.5 million in Lansing
$4 million in Cleveland
$3.4 million in Bakersfield
Includes $480,000 in Spanish-language media
$3.4 million in Anchorage
$3.2 million in Syracuse
$2.8 million in Omaha
$2.8 million in Toledo
$2.7 million in Des Moines
$2.4 million in Albany
$2.3 million in Albuquerque
Includes $345,000 in Spanish-language media
$2.3 million in Flint
$2.2 million in Norfolk
$2.2 million in Binghamton
$1.9 million in Harlingen
Includes $517,000 in Spanish-language media
$1.7 million in Bangor
$1.6 million in Sacramento
$1.4 million in Portland-Auburn
$1.1 million in Fairbanks
$1.1 million in Hartford
$792,000 in Greenville
$748,000 in Bend
$694,000 in El Paso
Includes $200,000 in Spanish-language media
$675,000 in Juneau
$556,000 in Palm Springs
$192,000 in Utica
$95,000 in Presque Isle

Philly's the big eyebrow-raiser for me. At least with all the other markets I can tell what races they're going for.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

Nunn is definitely someone I think outruns Trump this year.

Agreed but Baccam seems like an A tier recruit so it won't be that much.

[wbrocks67]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

[Progressive Pessimist]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

Ticket-splitting!

All these voters who apparently love Democrats not named Biden, and equally love Trump.