Quebec election, 2007

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't count out a minority. I dont think it's ever happened before though.

[cp]

They came close in 1886 with 33:29:3, but that was it.

[Hatman 🍁]

The latest poll had the PQ in third place in the Quebec City area!

[Hash]

Boisclair better read "Campaigning for Dummies" and fast if he wants to win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a cool interactive map: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/99999999/CPACTUALITES02/70223219&template=largeelections

[Hash]

Dah! The school computer can't display the text in the interactive map

[cp]

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics/story.html?id=8eb65bb6-0744-4775-9df5-ae515b49336b&k=35260

Charest says a post-referendum Quebec becomes a pot roast. Boisclair disagrees.

I think this is ultimately a non-issue. People get huffed up about it and it gives a slight boost to the PQ simply because it's talking about a post-referendum Quebec as if it's a reality. But the issue will be forgotten once the budget comes out next week. Any thoughts?

[Hash]

IMO, it's part of a type of scare campaign by Charest about referendums and independence. Whether we like it or not, after 2 NO victories, independence is old stuff now.

[Verily]

Mass chaos! Leger's latest poll is:

PLQ: 33 (-3)
PQ: 30 (+1)
ADQ: 30 (+5)

I can't find a good link yet, but that's a really close three-way race. (I personally hope for a PQ minority. Why? Because then the ADQ would be forced to decide whether it will support a PQ independence referendum or not, and that debate would rip the party apart.)

It's also beginning to sound like, from what I hear, that QS stands a chance of winning Mercier, Gouin or Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques from the PQ. Their support has reached around 15% in eastern Montreal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A fascist party polling 30%? Bloody hell...

[cp]

They're not fascist, at least not in the traditional definition of the term. They're just picking up on a long-silenced trend in Quebec (rural) culture that sees things in very stark terms. The ADQ can afford to say stupid things that would be awful policies: no one expects them to be elected.

The 33/30/30 split isn't as close as it looks, though. Liberal and PQ support are very concentrated. The Liberals have a lock on Montreal and the Outaouais and the PQ are solid in the Gaspesie, Nord-du-Quebec, and central St. Lawerence valley. Neither party will drop under about 40 seats (out of 125).

The ADQ has the opposite problem. Their support is wildly diffused, spread across tiny villages and communities everywhere. Their bump has been around Quebec City and the Eastern Townships, but not enough to dislodge the incumbents. Many of the PLQ and PQ candidates in those ridings are extremely popular, elected by huge margins, and are deeply rooted in the local community.

I still think the ADQ will plummet at the polls and there will be a Liberal minority or slimmest of majorities.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A fascist party polling 30%? Bloody hell...

Yes, that is pretty low compared to how fascism polls in the country to the south.

[Umengus]

A fascist party polling 30%? Bloody hell...

why fascist?

[Verily]

My numbers were apparently incorrect, though my margins were correct. 6% others seemed a bit low given how strong QS and the PVQ have been lately. The actual poll numbers are:

PLQ: 30 (-6)
PQ: 27 (-2)
ADQ: 27 (+1)
Others: 16 (+7)

The story (below), doesn't give separate numbers for the PVQ and QS, but they must be around 7% each to give 16% for Others.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070316/quebec_election_070316/20070316?hub=Canada

Clearly, Quebeckers think Charest lost the debate given the PLQ's decline to what is probably their rock-solid base of 30%. It's worse for them, too, because a lot of that 30% is concentrated in West Montreal where they'll win at least 60% of the vote no matter how badly they do elsewhere.

Of course, the PQ has little to be happy about, either. The ADQ, and maybe QS, should be cheering.

[cp]

While this may be good news for the QS, they're still in the netherworld of <15% in a 4 party race. They'll get no seats and probably a disappointing return in sheer numbers too. Basing oneself on students and radical lefties is a surefire way to ensure zero turnout on election day. Go apathy!

[Colin]

What?

ADQ at 27%? I can't actually believe that that type of support would remain throughout the entire race. Their ceiling is around 15-17 percent of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bump. Election on Monday

here's H&K's predictor map: http://www.predictionshkdp.com/

helps if you can speak French

[Hash]

I can't wait. My excel analysis is ready to be filled in.

[Hatman 🍁]

Predictions?

PLQ: 60 seats
PQ: 50 seats
ADQ: 15 seats

[Hash]

The ADQ will get more than 15 seats IMO.

[Hatman 🍁]

The ADQ will get more than 15 seats IMO.

To be honest, I have no clue. They may very well pick up a large handful. (a la CPC in 2006)

[Verily]

I'm guessing 23 seats for the ADQ. My prediction is:

PLQ: 53
PQ: 49
ADQ: 23

Charest resigns and is replaced as Premier, and the new PLQ leader calls another election before the end of the year.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm guessing 23 seats for the ADQ. My prediction is:

PLQ: 53
PQ: 49
ADQ: 23

Charest resigns and is replaced as Premier, and the new PLQ leader calls another election before the end of the year.

Why would Charest resign after winning?

[Verily]

Because the PLQ will fall into a minority solely because he is leader, and he knows it. He'll run as a Conservative in the next federal election, so it won't be the usual "shameful-exit-from-politics" type of resignation.

Boisclair will probably also resign.

[Hash]

If Boisclair looses his position will be compromised, for sure.