How many Democratic and Republican Representatives will be defeated in 2008?

[Adlai Stevenson]

2006 was a unique election year in that no incumbent Democrat, anywhere, was defeated.  I believe 2008 will be a strong year for the Democratic Party, however, it is realistic to expect some newly-elected House members will be defeated.  Nick Lampson would be an obvious choice but are there any people who will go down unexpectedly.

It also seems clear that there will be more Republican casualties in 2008.  Some Republican Representatives barely survived 2006 and are obviously weakened going into 2008.  John Dolittle and James Walsh could be good examples.

But altogether, how many Democrats and Republicans individually will be defeated?

[cp]

Probably something like 5 or 10, depending on how well the Republicans do in their House campaign. It could be as low as 3 or 4 if there's a Democratic surge for whatever reason.

[Mr.Phips]

With most people focused on what will probably be a very competitive and entertaining Presidential election, the House reelection rate will be very high.  Very few incumbants will be defeated, maybe four or five.

[Saxwsylvania]

At this point, it's really hard to tell.  Obviously folks like Lampson and maybe Carney will have an uphill battle.  But there are a number of factors, namely the national mood, presidential election climate, decent challengers, and funding for those challengers.

Right now it looks like it will be a strong Democratic year, but that could obviously change.  If I had to wager, I'd say the Republicans gain a couple of seats in the House but lose a few in the Senate.

[Verily]

At this point, it's really hard to tell.  Obviously folks like Lampson and maybe Carney will have an uphill battle.  But there are a number of factors, namely the national mood, presidential election climate, decent challengers, and funding for those challengers.

Right now it looks like it will be a strong Democratic year, but that could obviously change.  If I had to wager, I'd say the Republicans gain a couple of seats in the House but lose a few in the Senate.

I more or less agree, but a net change of two in favor of the Democrats in the Senate and two in favor of the Republicans in the House doesn't mean that only four seats change hands. My current prediction is:

House: 3 Dem gains, 5 GOP gains (GOP +2)
Senate: 3 Dem gains, 1 GOP gain (Dem +2)

Making for a total of twelve seats changing hands.

[Mr.Phips]

At this point, it's really hard to tell.  Obviously folks like Lampson and maybe Carney will have an uphill battle.  But there are a number of factors, namely the national mood, presidential election climate, decent challengers, and funding for those challengers.

Right now it looks like it will be a strong Democratic year, but that could obviously change.  If I had to wager, I'd say the Republicans gain a couple of seats in the House but lose a few in the Senate.

I more or less agree, but a net change of two in favor of the Democrats in the Senate and two in favor of the Republicans in the House doesn't mean that only four seats change hands. My current prediction is:

House: 3 Dem gains, 5 GOP gains (GOP +2)
Senate: 3 Dem gains, 1 GOP gain (Dem +2)

Making for a total of twelve seats changing hands.

If the Presidential election is neck and neck that sounds about right. 

I see Chris Carney losing in PA-10 and Tim Mahoney losing in FL-16.  Lampson wins another term in an upset.  That's two for the GOP.
I see Dems beating Pryce in OH-15, Gerlach in PA-06, Wilson in NH-01, Ferguson in NJ-07, Walberg in MI-07, Renzi in AZ-01, and they pick up Mark Kirk's IL-10 when he leaves to run for the Senate.  That's a net of five for the Dems.

[Verily]

If I have to go with people actually defeated:

Lampson in TX-22
Carney in PA-10
Boyda in KS-02
Marshall in GA-08
Hill in IN-09
Renzi in AZ-01
Doolittle in CA-04
Shays in CT-04

[Open] in CO
Coleman in MN
Sununu in NH
Landrieu in LA

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Odds are that one of the western/central NY Republicans who barely won goes down in 2008:
Walsh NY-25
Reynolds NY-26
Kohl NY-29

[Mr.Phips]

If I have to go with people actually defeated:

Lampson in TX-22
Carney in PA-10
Boyda in KS-02
Marshall in GA-08
Hill in IN-09
Renzi in AZ-01
Doolittle in CA-04
Shays in CT-04

[Open] in CO
Coleman in MN
Sununu in NH
Landrieu in LA

Hill going down?  He is a solid fit for that district.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Hill is considering running for Governor in 2008 though. 

[Verily]

If I have to go with people actually defeated:

Lampson in TX-22
Carney in PA-10
Boyda in KS-02
Marshall in GA-08
Hill in IN-09
Renzi in AZ-01
Doolittle in CA-04
Shays in CT-04

[Open] in CO
Coleman in MN
Sununu in NH
Landrieu in LA

Hill going down?  He is a solid fit for that district.

I get the feeling that Sodrel will win in Presidential years and Hill in midterms for many cycles to come. (Actually, I really just couldn't think of another Democrat likely to lose, and Hill seems reasonably likely to do so.)

[Wiz in Wis]

House (*-open seat/retirement)

Dem Losses (-6/-7)

Lampson (TX-22)
Hill* (IN-09)
~Herseth~* (SD-AL) - (If Johnson retires, Herseth will run for Senate)
Shea-Porter (NH-01)
Carney (PA-10)
Boyda (KS-02)
Barrow (GA-12)

Rep Losses (-11)

Walsh (NY-25)
Kuhl* (NY-29)
Ferguson (NJ-07)
Dent (PA-15)
Murphy* (PA-18)
Wahlberg (MI-07)
Price (OH-15)
Buchanan (FL-13)
Hayes (NC-08)
Musgrave (CO-04)
Porter (NV-03)

Net Change (D +4/+5)

Senate

Dem Losses (-1/-2)
Landrieu (LA)
~Johnson~ (SD) / (Replaced by Herseth - Hold Seat)

Rep Losses (-6/-7)
Allard* (CO)
Dominici* (NM)
Coleman (MN)
Smith (OR)
Sununu (NH)
Collins (ME)
~Warner~ (if M. Warner runs for Senate, otherwise Hold Seat)

Net Change (D +5/+6)
Lieberman expelled from Dem caucus, caucuses w/ Reps

(*caveat - assuming NOTHING HAPPENS IN NEXT 2 YEARS)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Barrow (GA-12)

Barrow should be safe enough in a Presidential year; his district is 44% Black, and Black turnout in eastern Georgia was pisspoor last year. Marshall's district is more vulnerable methinks.

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Kuhl badly underperforms it what was traditionally a very safe Republican district. But I don't see why he'd lose in 2008 if he didn't in 2006.

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If Ferguson didn't go down last year, he's not going to lose anytime soon. I can't see Dent losing either.

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The chance to take these districts has probably gone now.

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Whu?! Someone would have to happen within the next two years for Dominici to lose...

[Adlai Stevenson]

Also Senator Tim Johnson is definitely running for re-election.  He has hired a top Democratic strategist and his colleague Senator Max Baucus of Montana is already raising funds for him.  Stephanie Herseth thus has the option of running for the Senate against John Thune in 2010 or for Governor also that year. 

[Mr.Phips]

House (*-open seat/retirement)

Dem Losses (-6/-7)

Lampson (TX-22)
Hill* (IN-09)
~Herseth~* (SD-AL) - (If Johnson retires, Herseth will run for Senate)
Shea-Porter (NH-01)
Carney (PA-10)
Boyda (KS-02)
Barrow (GA-12)

I don't see Shea-Porter or Barrow losing.  Barrow is in a district that is almost majority black and Shea-Porter is in an increasingly Democratic district in New England in a Presidential year.

[Wiz in Wis]

Barrow (GA-12)

Barrow should be safe enough in a Presidential year; his district is 44% Black, and Black turnout in eastern Georgia was pisspoor last year. Marshall's district is more vulnerable methinks.

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Kuhl badly underperforms it what was traditionally a very safe Republican district. But I don't see why he'd lose in 2008 if he didn't in 2006.

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If Ferguson didn't go down last year, he's not going to lose anytime soon. I can't see Dent losing either.

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The chance to take these districts has probably gone now.

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Whu?! Someone would have to happen within the next two years for Dominici to lose...

The caveat applies to all, and I am assuming Dominici will retire... Other than that I think that Porter (NV 3) is a lot weaker than people believe, and that the district's demos will be significantly different in just 2 years.