2008 Senate Races - Bad Map for Republicans

[Smash255]

The Democrats have a chance at defeating Senator Dole of North Carolina. Senator Warner of Virginia who has been whining about how he fillibustered his own bill could be vulnerable, or could retire. If Domenici retires, that race should be competitive.

All three of those seats are very prime targets for Democrats.  Especially if John Edwards were to win the Democratic Nomination for President, that would, imo, put North Carolina and Virginia as toss-ups.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Warner's here to stay.  I'll bet North Carolina will be close.  In many ways, NC is much like VA.  The urban areas and suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are rapidly growing and increasingly voting Democratic.  If the Democratic candidate is too liberal, however, they could just as easily go Republican.

Uh, no.  NC is not VA.  I really can't spot any trend there that is really worth mentioning.

Sure, metro Charlotte and all of Raleigh-Durham have been moving slightly Democrat.  But suburban Charlotte (e.g. the horror of Union County) is certainly not and any movement in Raleigh-Durham is being balanced by other trends, specifically in Southeast NC (home to DINO heaven).

The right kind of Democrat can win NC, that's for sure (because of the number of Democrats).  But the VA trends are really not present in NC, anywhere.

Their is some leftward movement in part because of the sheer population of the areas which are moving.  Also the Asheville and Greensboro areas have been moving Democratic as well.

[Verily]

Who will be the sacrificial lamb against Harkin this time?

If I had to guess I would guess Jim Nussle will be the candidate and I give him a good shot at winning

You make me laugh. Nussle is so washed up he lost his own congressional district when running for an open governor's race!

[Smash255]

Who will be the sacrificial lamb against Harkin this time?

If I had to guess I would guess Jim Nussle will be the candidate and I give him a good shot at winning

what in your hackinated membrane of yours leads you to believe that would happen???

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not only did Nussle lose his own district, he did worse than the Republican who ran to replace him.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Colorado - Likely Dem
New Hampshire - Tossup
Louisiana - Lean Rep
Minnesota - Tossup
Oregon - Lean Rep
Maine - Lean Rep

[Stranger in a strange land]

Colorado - Likely Dem
New Hampshire - Tossup
Louisiana - Lean Rep
Minnesota - Tossup
Oregon - Lean Rep
Maine - Lean Rep

Remember that at this point in 2005, DeWine, Chafee, and Talent were all considered safe, so you never know how much things will change.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Talent was never seen as safe, and Chafee's seat was always seen as a possible pick-up because of Laffey.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The ratings for the vulnerable Senators up in 06, as said by Charlie Cook on at about this time two years ago:

Likely GOP
Allen (R)
DeWine (R)
Talent (R)

Toss-Up
OPEN - Dayton (D)
Santorum (R)
Chafee (R)
OPEN - Frist (R)

Lean DEM
Bill Nelson (D)
Stabenow (D)
Ben Nelson (D)
Corzine (D)
Cantwell (D)

Don't forget Safe GOP
Burns (R)

Ouch.

[Mr.Phips]

The ratings for the vulnerable Senators up in 06, as said by Charlie Cook on at about this time two years ago:

Likely GOP
Allen (R)
DeWine (R)
Talent (R)

Toss-Up

Right now the only tossup he has is the open Colorado seat.  He has Landrieu as Lean Democratic and Coleman
OPEN - Dayton (D)
Santorum (R)
Chafee (R)
OPEN - Frist (R)

Lean DEM
Bill Nelson (D)
Stabenow (D)
Ben Nelson (D)
Corzine (D)
Cantwell (D)

Right now, the only tossup he has is the open Colorado seat.  He has Landrieu as Lean Democratic and Coleman as Lean Republican. Everything else is either Likely or Safe.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's what I would've said:

Likely GOP
DeWine
Chafee
Allen

Lean GOP
Talent
Open - Frist

Toss up
Burns
Santorum
Bill Nelson

Lean Dem
Open - Dayton
Stabenow
Cantwell
Ben Nelson
Open - Corzine

[Rural Radical]

Wouldnt MN be lean Dem pick up, as it will likely vote for for the Democrat at presidential level anyway.

CO and NH look likely as well.

[minionofmidas]

Also, Mary Landrieu will certainly not be defeated by Bobby Jindal. If Jindal loses the 2007 governor's race, his political career is over; he certainly wouldn't defeat the much more popular Landrieu if he loses to Blanco.

Indeedo on the second part (although the map would look very very different - Blanco will get far more votes in the North of the state than Landrieu would).
His political career, though, would not be over. He still represents an ultra-safe house seat, and probably would settle for a long house career instead.

[Joe Biden 2020]

As I said in another thread, I can see the GOP losing a net of 2 seats for the 111th Senate, no matter who the nominee is, giving them a 53-47 majority.  I'll give them Louisiana, depending on what happens with Governor Kathleen Blanco this November, but I'll give Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota to the Democrats.  If Guiliani or Romney is nominated, NH has a better chance of staying GOP, but thats a big if.  If McCain is nominated, it increases the GOP's chance in Colorado, but still not likely.  If Huckabee or Brownback is nominated, all three will go Democrat.  As of now, until I see some formidable opponents, I am going to keep Mississippi and Oklahoma in GOP hands, but with the knowledge that they could change and give the Democrats a net gain of 4 seats, giving them a 55-45 majority.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think McCain would help too much in Colorado just because it's a western state, westerners aren't that way like southernors are. He might carry Colorado, but not by a wide enough margin to have a big effect on the Senate race.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

[Mr.Phips]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

[Mr.Phips]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

[MarkWarner08]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

[Mr.Phips]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

Beyond Easley there is Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore, both of whom are expected to run for Governor in 2008 however, there are also at least three credible Congressional candidates - Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller.  Etheridge would be 67 and perhaps too old in 2008.  McIntyre in my view would be an excellent candidate, in 2004 he received ratings of 60 from both ADA and ACU - he has represented a conservative district since 1996 and is still a loyal Democrat.  Miller comes from the marginal NC-13 and has served since 2002, he is a bit older and more liberal than McIntyre, he will be 55 in 2008 and McIntyre will be 52. 

[MarkWarner08]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

Beyond Easley there is Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore, both of whom are expected to run for Governor in 2008 however, there are also at least three credible Congressional candidates - Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller.  Etheridge would be 67 and perhaps too old in 2008.  McIntyre in my view would be an excellent candidate, in 2004 he received ratings of 60 from both ADA and ACU - he has represented a conservative district since 1996 and is still a loyal Democrat.  Miller comes from the marginal NC-13 and has served since 2002, he is a bit older and more liberal than McIntyre, he will be 55 in 2008 and McIntyre will be 52. 

McIntrye is well established in the House -- I doubt he'd run. With the Gubernatorial and other statewide offices getting most of the attention, I expect Dole to cruise to reelection.

Anyways, can you name the last Democrat to win a close Senate race in the South in a Presidential year? Her name is Mary Landrieu and the year was 1996. 12 years is a long time...

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

Beyond Easley there is Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore, both of whom are expected to run for Governor in 2008 however, there are also at least three credible Congressional candidates - Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller.  Etheridge would be 67 and perhaps too old in 2008.  McIntyre in my view would be an excellent candidate, in 2004 he received ratings of 60 from both ADA and ACU - he has represented a conservative district since 1996 and is still a loyal Democrat.  Miller comes from the marginal NC-13 and has served since 2002, he is a bit older and more liberal than McIntyre, he will be 55 in 2008 and McIntyre will be 52. 

McIntrye is well established in the House -- I doubt he'd run. With the Gubernatorial and other statewide offices getting most of the attention, I expect Dole to cruise to reelection.

Anyways, can you name the last Democrat to win a close Senate race in the South in a Presidential year? Her name is Mary Landrieu and the year was 1996. 12 years is a long time...

That is a well observed point and I agree it would be daunting, but its not impossible.

[Mr.Phips]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

Beyond Easley there is Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore, both of whom are expected to run for Governor in 2008 however, there are also at least three credible Congressional candidates - Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller.  Etheridge would be 67 and perhaps too old in 2008.  McIntyre in my view would be an excellent candidate, in 2004 he received ratings of 60 from both ADA and ACU - he has represented a conservative district since 1996 and is still a loyal Democrat.  Miller comes from the marginal NC-13 and has served since 2002, he is a bit older and more liberal than McIntyre, he will be 55 in 2008 and McIntyre will be 52. 

McIntrye is well established in the House -- I doubt he'd run. With the Gubernatorial and other statewide offices getting most of the attention, I expect Dole to cruise to reelection.

Anyways, can you name the last Democrat to win a close Senate race in the South in a Presidential year? Her name is Mary Landrieu and the year was 1996. 12 years is a long time...

Bill Nelson in Florida 2000.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree that the partisan makeup of the Senate in January 2009 will be 55-45 Democratic.  I think Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon will all be states carried by the Democratic Presidential nominne in 2008 and will also all elect Democratic Senators that year, thus giving the Democrats a net gain of four seats.  As for Louisiana, I would put it as a Lean Dem state - probably the only one.  Landrieu has good approval ratings for an endangered species (Southern Democratic Senator) and her most formidable opponent, Bobby Jindal, is running for Governor and will almost certainly win in 2007, thus removing him from challenging her. 

Im not sure about Oregon.  Smith seems to be in pretty good shape. 

Oregon may be the prediction I regret.  However, I think the DSCC is a very powerfully run organisation under Charles Schumer and given his success in 2006 I feel that Oregon will be an obvious target of his.  It is a Democrat state in a Presidential year in what is likely to be a good Democratic year.  It will obviously be on the target list and Smith has never won by huge margins; 48%-47% in 1996 and 56%-40% in 2002.  I think the DSCC list of targets will be something like this -

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Minnesota
4. Oregon
5. Maine

Then the somewhat more; long-shot races like North Carolina, Texas and Oklahoma cannot be discounted either.  Also there is still Virginia, New Mexico and Mississippi - states where the incumbents have not definitely stated they are running for re-election. 

I actually see North Carolina as more likely than Oregon.

If Mike Easley run, yes. If not, Oregon is many notches higher. Are you expecting Easley to run?

No, I am not.  However, North Carolina does have a solid Democratic base and there are plenty of other Democrats besides Easley that could at least make it interesting.

Beyond Easley there is Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore, both of whom are expected to run for Governor in 2008 however, there are also at least three credible Congressional candidates - Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller.  Etheridge would be 67 and perhaps too old in 2008.  McIntyre in my view would be an excellent candidate, in 2004 he received ratings of 60 from both ADA and ACU - he has represented a conservative district since 1996 and is still a loyal Democrat.  Miller comes from the marginal NC-13 and has served since 2002, he is a bit older and more liberal than McIntyre, he will be 55 in 2008 and McIntyre will be 52. 

McIntrye is well established in the House -- I doubt he'd run. With the Gubernatorial and other statewide offices getting most of the attention, I expect Dole to cruise to reelection.

Anyways, can you name the last Democrat to win a close Senate race in the South in a Presidential year? Her name is Mary Landrieu and the year was 1996. 12 years is a long time...

Bill Nelson in Florida 2000.

Good point - but Florida and Louisiana are different really.  And it is now harder for a Democrat to win an open-seat election in Florida than a Republican, as evinced by 2004.