I just got the word...it will be John Edwards

[nclib]

This is a good day for North Carolina and the Democratic Party. NC will certainly be competitive and this will help Bowles in the Senate race.

[MarkDel]

Yeah, most of my contacts are GOP as well, but I do have some friends on the other side from my days working there...comes in handy.

MarkDel...

Unrelated to this thread... but....

Do you know and/or have access to any good quilitty polling information from any/all of the following states:

Wisconsin
Iowa
Washington State
Oregon
North Carolina

I know a ton of people at the "grunt" level, ie the folks actually running a lot of the tracking polls for the battle ground states, but nobody waaaay up the proverbial food chain who gets all the information, so there are some real gaps in the states I see.

I have great access to most of the states that matter, just not the 5 states I have listed above.

Any assistance would be really appreciated

Vorlon,

I can make a phone call or two. Do you need the raw polling data or just a summary? My guess is that I can get a summary a lot easier than the actual statistical data, but I'll try to get both. I have one REALLY good contact on the Republican side who knows EVERYTHING, but because he's so high up on the food chain, he's sometimes less than forthcoming with the information...LOL...Let me see what I can do, at the very least, I'll get a no bullsh*t assesment of where the RNC thinks those states are headed. According to my Democratic friend, they feel Iowa and Wisconsin will be HUGE...which means they have probably secretly given up on Florida and Missouri.

[MarkDel]

This is a good day for North Carolina and the Democratic Party. NC will certainly be competitive and this will help Bowles in the Senate race.

I agree. This move definitely helps Bowles a great deal and in my opinion, moves him from a slight underdog to a slight favorite in the Senate Race.

[MarkDel]

Fantastic call Mark!

Wild Card (and anyone else I missed),

Thanks!

[The Vorlon]

Yeah, most of my contacts are GOP as well, but I do have some friends on the other side from my days working there...comes in handy.

MarkDel...

Unrelated to this thread... but....

Do you know and/or have access to any good quilitty polling information from any/all of the following states:

Wisconsin
Iowa
Washington State
Oregon
North Carolina

I know a ton of people at the "grunt" level, ie the folks actually running a lot of the tracking polls for the battle ground states, but nobody waaaay up the proverbial food chain who gets all the information, so there are some real gaps in the states I see.

I have great access to most of the states that matter, just not the 5 states I have listed above.

Any assistance would be really appreciated

Vorlon,

I can make a phone call or two. Do you need the raw polling data or just a summary? My guess is that I can get a summary a lot easier than the actual statistical data, but I'll try to get both. I have one REALLY good contact on the Republican side who knows EVERYTHING, but because he's so high up on the food chain, he's sometimes less than forthcoming with the information...LOL...Let me see what I can do, at the very least, I'll get a no bullsh*t assesment of where the RNC thinks those states are headed. According to my Democratic friend, they feel Iowa and Wisconsin will be HUGE...which means they have probably secretly given up on Florida and Missouri.

Any and all data welcome....

Raw data is nice, but summaries are ok too

I can always "trade" if that is required as well.

I get basically everything there is to be had out of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, although in Pennsylvania I only get the GOP side of things, don't have a democratic "feed" as it were.

I am really curious about Wisconsin - I have a fair bit of data, but most of it is contradictory.  I have no confidence at all which way that state is going.

[MarkDel]

Vorlon,

My Democratic buddy seems to think that the whole election will hinge on Wisconsin and Iowa if that helps at all. I guess that means they are assuming Democratic wins in Pennsylvania and Ohio, but losses in Florida, New Mexico, Oregon and Missouri. I'll see what I kind find out on both sides...

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon,

My Democratic buddy seems to think that the whole election will hinge on Wisconsin and Iowa if that helps at all. I guess that means they are assuming Democratic wins in Pennsylvania and Ohio, but losses in Florida, New Mexico, Oregon and Missouri. I'll see what I kind find out on both sides...

I am amazed how tight Pennsylvania is right now.  Might just be "summer polling" but something is up in Penn.

Bush's Job approval is tracking basically at his national number, while Ohio Bush has not moved at all from 2000.

This is shaping up to be a strange campaign - I think there are a few more surprises to come too.

Any word on Washington State?

The Murray/Nethercutt Senate race looks like it might be very interesting.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Cool call Mark.

Damn that I didn't check the forum in the morning (in our time) I probably would have been first one who had known in Finland.

Anyway. How dems are going to give up in Oreagon? They can win easily, if Nader won't be in the ballot.

[12th Doctor]

Has anyone yet been able to come up with one case in which Edwards represented someone who did not deserve to be represented?

Instead of just throwing out terms like "ambulance-chaser", "parasite" and such, it would be nice to actually have a specific case in which you feel Edwards's client was in the wrong.

I think Kerry could just as easily come up with an ad, Vorlon, that would show Edwards defending someone who was wronged by a corporation. Lawsuits can sometimes go too far, it's true, but people get ripped off just as much if not more by corporations; that's why we need lawsuits, as a check against unrestricted corporate power.

You are right that people hate getting ripped off, but corporations rip off as many people if not more than lawyers do. If anything, blame the juries, not the lawyers. Clients deserve represenatation if they feel they have a legitimate case, and it's not the lawyer's role to decide whether or not the case is just; that's up to judges and juries to decide.

This is politics.

While it is nice to have actual facts on your side... it's not mandatory

The Vice Presidency isn't worth a warm bucket of spit"

                              John Nance Garner - 32nd Vice President

Historical Note:

It is believed reporters may have "misspelled" the word "spit" when they ran this quote in the newspapers

The original quote was "The Vice Presidency isn't worth a warm bucket of piss".

It was altered for public consumption.

[MarkDel]

Vorlon,

The word I got through the grapevine is that the Republicans are NOT thrilled with Nethercutt's chances, but they feel Murray is vulnerable. As for the Presidential race, I think they feel Kerry is a definite favorite here.

Huck Finn,

I'm not sure what's going on in Oregon, but my Democratic friend was VERY unhappy with what he has heard. Apparently, they feel Kerry is in deep trouble in Oregon with or without Nader on the ticket!!! But they are confident of Washington and oddly confident about Pennsylvania...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The only people I've heard who are optimistic about Nethercutt's chances are partisan Republicans who pretty much have to say that.  And the recent polling does nothing to suggest that everyone else is wrong.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon,

The word I got through the grapevine is that the Republicans are NOT thrilled with Nethercutt's chances, but they feel Murray is vulnerable. As for the Presidential race, I think they feel Kerry is a definite favorite here.

More or less what I hear too..

Murray is beatable... but likely not by Nethercutt.

Nethercutt's big problem is he has no cash.  If he had $8 million of his own money to throw in, he'd have a shot, but the GOP is unlikely to throw the money needed into a second tier pickup opportunity unless things start going very well in the southern state senate races and they feel they can spare the cash.

Washington seems very stable polling wise.  Other than the GOP/Nethercutt/Moore polls they all say Kerry by 4-6%.

We will see