The Hill: State senator targets Walz

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake

Minnesota state Sen. Dick Day (R) announced yesterday that he has filed paperwork to run against freshman Rep. Tim Walz (D) in 2008.

Talking to Minnesota Public Radio, Day said, “I don’t have a lot of hobbies. I’m not a golf player. I get up early in the morning. I like politics so I figured, hey, let’s take a shot at it.”

Day is a former minority leader and has served for 16 years. Walz defeated Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-Minn.) in one of the most shocking upsets of the 2006 election. The seat is likely to be a top GOP target.

“We certainly welcome Sen. Day to the race, but I hope he realizes quickly that being a member of the United States Congress isn’t something you do for the heck of it,” Minnesota Democratic Party Chairman Brian Melendez said.

http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/020907/walz.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Day is an idiot who was an extremely incompetent minority leader and didn't seem to care much other than the Twin Cities lightrail project which wasn't even located in his district. Walz should be pretty happy if this ends up being his opponent.

[Keystone Phil]

Talking to Minnesota Public Radio, Day said, “I don’t have a lot of hobbies. I’m not a golf player. I get up early in the morning. I like politics so I figured, hey, let’s take a shot at it.”

Uh...not a smart move, Day.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Exactly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ha, I didn't even notice that. It was between class so I was in a hurry.

Yeah, he's just bored because he lost his Minority Leader position and he wants something to do now so he figures he'll just have a campaign for the hell of it. Terrible candidate. Glad to see even Phil agrees.

More good news is who would've been the strongest candidate against Walz is the new Minority Leader, so he's out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talking to Minnesota Public Radio, Day said, “I don’t have a lot of hobbies. I’m not a golf player. I get up early in the morning. I like politics so I figured, hey, let’s take a shot at it.”

It occurs to me that these words might yet come back to haunt him...

[RBH]

the only other worse announcement quote was from Jim Rinck

"Our congressman is the smartest person in the district, and we might be the only place in the country that can say that, But he falls somewhat short on the charisma meter. And it might take a somewhat less intelligent -- although much noisier -- person to get some things done for this district."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is why Walz is favored against any candidate:



Compare that to the 2004 map and then take these into account:

-Look at the results in Blue Earth and Nicollet. Walz basically has a rock star following here, and his performance in the area was absolutely jawdropping. He even outpolled Klobuchar. With these type of numbers he has a far more solid base than any Republican.

-He carried Olmsted County. This is the home of Rochester, a former GOP stronghold and Gutknecht's home county. But it's trending our way, and Walz winning in his entrenched incumbent's opponent's political base is quite the acheivement. A Republican needs a strong showing in Olmsted to win the district, and it'll be very difficult to do that against Walz.

-Look at the numbers in Freeborn and Mower Counties. Walz won Freeborn with 57% and Mower with 62%. Kerry got 55% in Freeborn and 61% in Mower. That swing is quite an underperformance. Freeborn and Mower are both heavily Democratic, but also pro-incumbent. As an incumbent Democrat, Walz should greatly overperform in both. For example the State Senate district that contains both voted about 57% for Kerry, but the one-term incumbent, who only beat the Republican by 11 votes in 2002, won with 68%.

Basically, even if all the other traditionally Republican counties Walz won return to Republicanism in 2008, it still won't be enough to overcome his strong base.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

According to Politics1, the Lt. Governor is considering a run, would she be a strong candidate?  It sounds like if she doesn't run Waltz is safe

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What? Her old state House seat was nowhere near the district.

Well that alone tells you something. She'd be a carpetbagger for starters. Plus she has virtually no charisma, and an easily attackable record as the head of the Department of transportation. She botched reconstruction of two major highways in the district resulting in further work on those getting shelved for now. So that tells you enough probably.

[TheresNoMoney]

Walz is a very good candidate and connects well with Minnesota voters.

[socaldem]

This is why Walz is favored against any candidate:



Compare that to the 2004 map and then take these into account:

-Look at the results in Blue Earth and Nicollet. Walz basically has a rock star following here, and his performance in the area was absolutely jawdropping. He even outpolled Klobuchar. With these type of numbers he has a far more solid base than any Republican.

-He carried Olmsted County. This is the home of Rochester, a former GOP stronghold and Gutknecht's home county. But it's trending our way, and Walz winning in his entrenched incumbent's opponent's political base is quite the acheivement. A Republican needs a strong showing in Olmsted to win the district, and it'll be very difficult to do that against Walz.

-Look at the numbers in Freeborn and Mower Counties. Walz won Freeborn with 57% and Mower with 62%. Kerry got 55% in Freeborn and 61% in Mower. That swing is quite an underperformance. Freeborn and Mower are both heavily Democratic, but also pro-incumbent. As an incumbent Democrat, Walz should greatly overperform in both. For example the State Senate district that contains both voted about 57% for Kerry, but the one-term incumbent, who only beat the Republican by 11 votes in 2002, won with 68%.

Basically, even if all the other traditionally Republican counties Walz won return to Republicanism in 2008, it still won't be enough to overcome his strong base.

Hmm, do you think Walz' performance in Olmstead was helped much by the railroad issue?  I see that he's made news on that front recently, too.

Also, didn't the dems pick up some state house districts in Rochester?

Where, by the way, is the MN LG's former state house district?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That might've played a role, although I didn't hear much about it until after the election. I think it's because Olmsted's been steadily trending our way for quite some time, but that might've given him a boost since Walz ran only two points behind Klobuchar there.

And yes, we now control 3/4 of the Rochester area State House seats. As recentely as 2002, we didn't control any. We also control 1/2 of the Senate seats, the one we have was originally gained by a party switcher, but she retired in 2006 and we still retained the seat.

Molnau's old State House seat consisted of most of Carver County and the lower part of Scott County.

[Keystone Phil]

According to Politics1, the Lt. Governor is considering a run, would she be a strong candidate? 

If looks count for votes, Walz in a landslide.