Rothenberg: Don't count on a Republican "snapback" in the House in 2008

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

TX-22 - Yeah, they'll take it back.
FL-16 - Very likely, though with Negron not running Mahoney's chances just went up a notch. I'm hoping for a brutal primary resulting in a far right winger winning.
NH-1 - Unlikely. I'm surprised so many people think Shea-Porter, the woman who pulled off the biggest upset of the election is a dead duck now, against the same guy who she beat despite all the odds he had in his favor. And Lynch will be on the ballot again, and landsliding.
OH-18 - Space will most likely do worse than he did in 2006 but as long as he campaigns on the right issues I'm confident he'll pull through.
NC-11 - Only if Shuler turns out to be WAY more socially liberal than he campaigned as, which looks very unlikely with his stem cell vote.
IN-9 - I'm pretty sure Sodrel's 2004 victory was a fluke. Hill should win most likely.
AZ-8 - Nope. Giffords probably has that seat as long as she wants it, which could be a very very long time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, Bradley was a lackluster representative. I don't know anything about the GOP bench in the district though, or if they could do any better.

For FL-16, I think the Foley effect is overrated. The media made it clear votes for Foley would go to Foley, signs said so in the polling places, and Negron managed to get people to vote for Foley/him while still distancing himself from Foley with a good slogan (Punch Foley for Negron). It flipped mostly because it was an open seat in a bad GOP year. The GOP would've probably retained the seat if Foley had simply retired and Negron ran under his own name, but it would still be close. Also Bill Nelson no doubt carried the district, so it certainly can vote for a Democrat in a "normal" race (well ballot situation wise), which TX-22 probably can't. TX-22 probably would vote for Mark Foley over Lampson if Foley was on the ballot.