Rothenberg: Don't count on a Republican "snapback" in the House in 2008

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think that Bush as a factor in 2008 is underrated.  He will still be a strangehold on Republican Presidential and Congressional fortunes.  Many Republican incumbents will retire, creating open seat races that will probably be influenced by the Presidential race.  And obviously there will be a few vulnerable Democratic incumbents but I think we could come out of 2008 with another Democratic net gain.  I can't see the Republicans sufficiently recovering until 2010, and even that is after 2004, limiting their potential gains. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

TX-22 - Yeah, they'll take it back.
FL-16 - Very likely, though with Negron not running Mahoney's chances just went up a notch. I'm hoping for a brutal primary resulting in a far right winger winning.
NH-1 - Unlikely. I'm surprised so many people think Shea-Porter, the woman who pulled off the biggest upset of the election is a dead duck now, against the same guy who she beat despite all the odds he had in his favor. And Lynch will be on the ballot again, and landsliding.
OH-18 - Space will most likely do worse than he did in 2006 but as long as he campaigns on the right issues I'm confident he'll pull through.
NC-11 - Only if Shuler turns out to be WAY more socially liberal than he campaigned as, which looks very unlikely with his stem cell vote.
IN-9 - I'm pretty sure Sodrel's 2004 victory was a fluke. Hill should win most likely.
AZ-8 - Nope. Giffords probably has that seat as long as she wants it, which could be a very very long time.

Agreed.  People forget that FL-16 only voted Bush 54%-46% in 2004, Democrats hold districts with much heavier Bush margins than that.  I also believe AZ-8 will be loyal to Democrats and Giffords.  Although she will probably run for the Senate or Governor at some stage. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think the Keystone GOP rather regret losing that District.  I know that Melissa Hart was spoken of as a possible future statewide candidate.  However, PA-4 only voted 54%-45% for Bush in 2004; a good Democratic Congressman should be able to win re-election here.