Rothenberg: Don't count on a Republican "snapback" in the House in 2008

[minionofmidas]

They will gain a net 11-15 seats in 2008. They will probably get ther majority back by 2010, dependeing on what people think of the 44th POTUS.

TX-22, FL-16, NH-1, OH-18, NC-11, IN-9, AZ-8, etc. will all be GOP gains in 2008. 

LOL. TX-22 yes, IN-09 and FL-16 MAYBE, but I would bey you money right now that the rest of those will not flip.

I'd put that at FL-16 extremely likely, TX-22 highly likely, IN-09 possibly... but probably not. Just like NH 1. OH 18 is unlikely, AZ 8 is probably out of reach for quite a while. NC 11 depends on Shuler's record in Congress.

[minionofmidas]

TX-22 - Yeah, they'll take it back.
FL-16 - Very likely, though with Negron not running Mahoney's chances just went up a notch. I'm hoping for a brutal primary resulting in a far right winger winning.
NH-1 - Unlikely. I'm surprised so many people think Shea-Porter, the woman who pulled off the biggest upset of the election is a dead duck now, against the same guy who she beat despite all the odds he had in his favor. And Lynch will be on the ballot again, and landsliding.
OH-18 - Space will most likely do worse than he did in 2006 but as long as he campaigns on the right issues I'm confident he'll pull through.
NC-11 - Only if Shuler turns out to be WAY more socially liberal than he campaigned as, which looks very unlikely with his stem cell vote.
IN-9 - I'm pretty sure Sodrel's 2004 victory was a fluke. Hill should win most likely.
AZ-8 - Nope. Giffords probably has that seat as long as she wants it, which could be a very very long time.

Agreed.  People forget that FL-16 only voted Bush 54%-46% in 2004, Democrats hold districts with much heavier Bush margins than that.

I'm going off the closeness of the 2006 result, which was fairly surprising. (And my reasoning for thinking Space safe for the time being is closely related. )
As to NH-1, I wasn't aware that Bradley will be allowed to run again. He won't win a rematch except in a generally much more Republican year (or if Shea-Porter turns out a very bad Representative.)

[minionofmidas]

Everybody seems to forget that FL-16 is actually a very closely divided district. 

I'm not forgetting it. On the contrary, I think it's closely divided & highly polarized, with the Republicans having the upper hand.