Rothenberg: Don't count on a Republican "snapback" in the House in 2008

[Mr.Phips]

I think that Bush as a factor in 2008 is underrated.  He will still be a strangehold on Republican Presidential and Congressional fortunes.  Many Republican incumbents will retire, creating open seat races that will probably be influenced by the Presidential race.  And obviously there will be a few vulnerable Democratic incumbents but I think we could come out of 2008 with another Democratic net gain.  I can't see the Republicans sufficiently recovering until 2010, and even that is after 2004, limiting their potential gains. 

They could recover in 2010 if a Democratic President is elected.

[Mr.Phips]

They will gain a net 11-15 seats in 2008. They will probably get ther majority back by 2010, dependeing on what people think of the 44th POTUS.

TX-22, FL-16, NH-1, OH-18, NC-11, IN-9, AZ-5, etc. will all be GOP gains in 2008. 

TX-22 and FL-16 are really the only ones that I see switching.  NH-01 is an increasing Democratic district and Bradley only served two terms and was never even that popular.  If a Democrat wins the Presidency in 2008, don't count on GOP gains in the House until 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

They will gain a net 11-15 seats in 2008. They will probably get ther majority back by 2010, dependeing on what people think of the 44th POTUS.

TX-22, FL-16, NH-1, OH-18, NC-11, IN-9, AZ-8, etc. will all be GOP gains in 2008. 

LOL. TX-22 yes, IN-09 and FL-16 MAYBE, but I would bey you money right now that the rest of those will not flip.

And your 11-15 seat estimate is wildly optimistic considering President Bush/Iraq will likely be the #1 issue again in 2008.

I figured those using the PVI rating according to Cook Political Report.

PVI is really not that good of an indicator of who will hold their seats.  If this was the case people like Jim Gerlach, Chris Shays, Heather Wilson, and Mark Kirk all would have lost.  There are a lot of districts that like divided government and will vote Republican at the Presidential level, but Democratic for Congress and local races.

[Mr.Phips]

Yes, Bradley was a lackluster representative. I don't know anything about the GOP bench in the district though, or if they could do any better.

For FL-16, I think the Foley effect is overrated. The media made it clear votes for Foley would go to Foley, signs said so in the polling places, and Negron managed to get people to vote for Foley/him while still distancing himself from Foley with a good slogan (Punch Foley for Negron). It flipped mostly because it was an open seat in a bad GOP year. The GOP would've probably retained the seat if Foley had simply retired and Negron ran under his own name, but it would still be close. Also Bill Nelson no doubt carried the district, so it certainly can vote for a Democrat in a "normal" race (well ballot situation wise), which TX-22 probably can't. TX-22 probably would vote for Mark Foley over Lampson if Foley was on the ballot.

Everybody seems to forget that FL-16 is actually a very closely divided district.  Bush only got 53% here in 2004, just two points more than his national average.  Clinton carried it in 1996 as well.  If Mahoney keeps his moderate image, he can hold on.

[Mr.Phips]

While I think TX-22 is gone, and I think that there are a number of Dems who could lose, such as FL-16, NH-1, and KS-2... there are just as many Reps who could lose too, such as Shays, Gerlach, Walsh, Kuhl, Porter (NV) and Wilson (NM)... so, looks to me like the Dems have the house barring some Republican wave.

There are a large number of Republicans who could lose in 2008.  Wilson in NM-01, Gerlach in PA-06, Shays in CT-04, Ferguson in NJ-07, Porter in NV-03, Pryce in OH-15, Chabot in OH-01, Roskam in IL-06, Kuhl in NY-29, Buchanan in FL-13, Drake in VA-02, Wolf in VA-10, Renzi in AZ-01, Hayes in NC-08, Kirk in IL-10, Knollenberg in MI-09, Walberg in MI-07, Reichart in WA-08 all come to mind if it is another good Democratic year.  

[Mr.Phips]

Absent anything to shake the political landscape, I don't see the GOP regaining the House until 2010 as a result of buyer's remorse over the Democratic President or 2012 as a result of reapportionment/redistricting.

If another Republican President is elected in 2008, I don't see the House turning over for even longer.  In that case, Dems would probably have control over most of redistricting and could create another 25 pickups in states like Michigan, Pennslyvania, California, Ohio and Virginia alone

[Mr.Phips]

PA-4 is quite winnable... Hart went down because of Iraq and the bad GOP tide... the guy who is currently holding the seat could have been anyone.

That district is pretty Democratic.  Hart was the first Republican to win there in God knows how long.