Portual Abortion Referendum

[Sam Spade]

I know what side I'd be on if I was a fetus.

Remember that if you were a fetus you wouldn't know of the debate. You wouldn't know of anything who you are or where you are never mind whats happening outside the womb.

This is very true, of course the fetus is surely aware of the effects of this legislation (in a practical manner).

[they don't love you like i love you]

Current Portuguese law: Abortions are only legal in the first trimester in cases if the mother's life or health is in danger, rape, or fetal defects.

Spanish law: Abortion is legal if the mother's life or health is in danger. It is legal only in the first trimester in case of rape, or first two trimesters in case of fetal defects.

The only other country that doesn't allow abortion on demand besides the really tiny ones is Ireland (which only allows it if the mother's life is in danger), Malta (which doesn't allow abortion under any circumstances whatsoever) and Poland (which has a similar law to Spain). Theoretically Finland, Iceland the UK don't allow it on demand either, but they do allow it in case of "socio-economic factors", which effectively equals on demand.

As for the proposed Portuguese law being one of the least strict, Albania, Belgium, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Serbia, Slovenia and Sweden have unlimited abortion on demand at all times, the current US law.

[ag]

As for the proposed Portuguese law being one of the least strict, Albania, Belgium, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Serbia, Slovenia and Sweden have unlimited abortion on demand at all times, the current US law.

Actually, not true. "Abortion on demand" is only legal in most of these countries up until the 12th week. In a couple countries it is legal up to the 16th week, but w/ mandatory counceling, etc. Portugal is still going to be somewhat conservative (10th week limit is somewhat unusual), but it would be broadly in line w/ the rest of Europe.

Anyway, I was in Lisbon last weekend, and the campaign was in full swing. Lisbon, of course, is the "Sim" land (or, at least, is presumed to be), so the "Sim" signs predominated, but it was clear from the newspapers that the "simites" were in great fear of those  "Naos" in Porto.  I am dying to see the regional breakdowns!

BTW, it was my first trip to Portugal, and I am floored. Lisbon might become one of my favorite cities anywhere. Is the rest of the country as good?

[ag]

Well, looking at the results, they are quite remarkable (I guess, these are still preliminary). Lisbon is not just "sim", but it is "sim-sim": 71% "yes". What's even more remarkable: it seems like in Porto "sim" also won w/ fairly solid 54%!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Theoretically Finland, Iceland the UK don't allow it on demand either, but they do allow it in case of "socio-economic factors", which effectively equals on demand.

Not so here; an abortion must be approved by two doctors before it can take place.
Anti-abortion groups sometimes argue that doctors used by various private companies will approve almost anything, while pro-abortion groups sometimes argue that doctors in the NHS essentially do the reverse.

[Frodo]

Results in about 45 minutes folks. Turnout is about 60% on the Mainland and Madeira.

According to the BBC, turnout was only 40%.

Wonderful -that means there may be another referendum on the same subject in another few years.....   

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So, does this mean Ireland stands alone now or is there to be another referendum, or is it all in a confused pile right now?

[ag]

BTW,  could somebody tell us the official PSD position on the referendum? All the other parties are obvious. Even if they weren't, the "sim" parties made sure to sign their referendum posters (I haven't seen as many hammer-and-sickle ads in over 15 years ). But the "naos" weren't that explicit (at least in Lisbon), and while I have no doubts about CDS/PP, I am somewhat uncertain about PSD. So, where they "naos" or did they remain uncommitted?

[ag]

So, does this mean Ireland stands alone now or is there to be another referendum, or is it all in a confused pile right now?

The governing PS has said that, no matter turnout, they will enact the legalization if and only if the "yes" gets more votes. The "yes" did, and PS has the majority in the parlliament (and will be supported by all the other leftist parties). Hence, the legalization is pretty much inevitable at this point.

BTW, it was a very smart decision by PS to declare that if the "no" wins (even if the turnout is insufficient) they would not attempt to legalize or to drop prosecutions. As PM Socrates said, "there is no crime without punishment".  Keeping the fetuses unaborted might be popular, but sending women to prison isn't.

Still, Ireland will always have Malta to shield it from the extreme

[Tetro Kornbluth]

And Poland - but I was really thinking of the pre-enlargement EU of 15 members.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Poland's law is actually more liberal than Ireland's.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Poland's law is actually more liberal than Ireland's.

What is Poland's law?

Even before this referendum Portugal's law was more liberal than Ireland's - though at least we have c.10,000 ultra-catholics to thank for having such "liberal" laws.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Basically the same as Spain's posted above. The only difference I see is that Spain's includes mental health as a valid exemption and Poland's doesn't.

[Frodo]

Results in about 45 minutes folks. Turnout is about 60% on the Mainland and Madeira.

According to the BBC, turnout was only 40%.

Wonderful -that means there may be another referendum on the same subject in another few years.....   

Looks like I could be right...

Low Turnout Undercuts Portugal Vote on Abortion

By ELAINE SCIOLINO
Published: February 12, 2007

LISBON, Feb. 11 — Portugal voted decisively in a referendum on Sunday to liberalize its restrictive abortion law, but the result was not considered valid because of low voter turnout.

Still, Prime Minister José Sócrates, a Socialist who supported the liberalization, declared victory and said he would ask Parliament, where his party enjoys a comfortable majority, to change the law.

“The people spoke with a clear voice,” Mr. Sócrates said in televised remarks after the polls closed. He added, “The law now will be discussed and approved in Parliament. Our interest is to fight clandestine abortion and we have to produce a law that respects the result of the referendum.”

The vote was 59.25 percent in favor and 40.75 percent opposed, with a turnout of slightly less than 44 percent of the 8.8 million eligible voters.

At least 50 percent of eligible voters needed to cast ballots for the results to be legally binding.
-------------------------------------------

Even if the ruling party does declare the results 'binding', by the time they are out of power, there will be another vote held at the first opportunity.

[Verily]

And a referendum that will fail miserably. If the past is any lesson, it's that, once the public agrees with something and that something becomes law, it will be at least a couple of decades before the public changes its mind, and until then it will be far more supportive of the law than it was before the law was passed.

[Brandon H]

I know what side I'd be on if I was a fetus.

Remember that if you were a fetus you wouldn't know of the debate. You wouldn't know of anything who you are or where you are never mind whats happening outside the womb.

But you would know that getting your skull crushed, your brains sucked out and your limbs ripped off would hurt like hell.

[kireev]

I made some maps and compiled some statistics http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/p/portugal/2007-referendum-abortion-portugal.html

[afleitch]

I know what side I'd be on if I was a fetus.

Remember that if you were a fetus you wouldn't know of the debate. You wouldn't know of anything who you are or where you are never mind whats happening outside the womb.

But you would know that getting your skull crushed, your brains sucked out and your limbs ripped off would hurt like hell.

At 2 weeks old? Most of the body parts you describe wouldn't be formed, nor would a central nervous system that would allow you to feel pain. It can only feel pain from around 20-26 weeks old. The referendum only concerns pregnancies up to 10 weeks.

[ag]

Even if the ruling party does declare the results 'binding', by the time they are out of power, there will be another vote held at the first opportunity.

Actually, probably not. The reasons:

1) the main opposition party (the misnamed right-of-center Social Democrats, PSD) are internally divided. The party, if I understand it right, did not take a position on this referendum, to avoid internal splits. The only party that's unambiguously "nao" is the small Christian CDS-PP. But CDS-PP will never form a government on its own. All the other parliamentary parties (the majority Sociallists (PS), the Communists and the "Left Bloc") are all unambiguously "sim".  To sum up: it's not enough for the opposition to come to power: it would have to come to power sufficiently overwhelmingly to be able to ignore the sizeable "sim" contingent within its own ranks and to actually want to go into all this highly divisive business that can only hurt them. Since PSD is not really a Catholic party, it's hard to see why would they do it. The only reason they might is if they absolutely need the parliamentary support of the Catholic CDS-PP.  Even then I am not sure CDS-PP would have more MPs than the number of "pro-choice" PSD legislators: probably not, in fact. 

2) The outcome of this referendum is sufficiently unambiguous. The last time the "pro-choicers" lost by something half a percentage point (on even lower turnout), leaving them eager for a rerun. This time it's not the same. 60:40 is good enough to pursuade most politicians not to bother with the new referendum any time soon. The large abstension here (and the turnout was, in fact, substantially up from the last time: it went from under 32% to just under 44%), of course, comes largely from people who don't want abortion to be regularly performed. But neither do these people want to send women and doctors to prison if they insist on doing it. These are not the people who are suddenly going to come out in large numbers to vote for recriminalization: they would abstain again (and they wouldn't be happy about politicians that are forcing them to discuss things they find uncomfortable to discuss). Most politicians are good enough counting votes to figure out that the likeliest result of any new referendum is still low turnout, decriminalization wins.  Since nobody likes courting defeats, they won't do it, unless they have a really good  reason. And PSD doesn't, as I've explained above.

To sum up, if and when PSD (or a PSD-CDS coalition) comes back to power, they would likely tinker with the law. Expect mandatory counceling, 24 hour waiting period or smthg like that. But no new referendum for the forseeble future is likely.

[freek]

I find the turnout criterium (of 50% in this case) not a good idea. When the final result is expected to be close, it makes it attractive for opponents to sabotage the referendum by abstaining from voting.

Example: 10 million voters. Turnout has to be at least 50%.


Case 1: Turnout is 45%. "Yes"= 4 million votes, 89%. "No" = 0.5 million votes, 11%.

Final result: Referendum is not valid.


Case 2: Turnout is 75%. "Yes" = 4 million votes, 53%. "No" = 3.5 million votes, 47%.

Final result: Referendum is valid. Yes wins.

[minionofmidas]

I know what side I'd be on if I was a fetus.

Remember that if you were a fetus you wouldn't know of the debate. You wouldn't know of anything who you are or where you are never mind whats happening outside the womb.

But you would know that getting your skull crushed, your brains sucked out and your limbs ripped off would hurt like hell.

No, you wouldn't. You don't have the capacity to know that yet.
At least not beforehand. If you believe in life after death, you might know afterwards. (Ignoring the question of whether you have these things. Even perfectly healthy newborn babies don't have a fully solid skull to crush yet, thence why it's so dangerous to drop them on their heads.)
I'm not personally a sufficient expert to make a claim on whether you might know anything about that during the procedure, though I'm ready to take Afleitch's word on it.