Democrats most important states
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: February 12, 2007, 08:33:43 PM »

I have rated all the GOP-leaning swing states based on how vital they are to the Democrats to win. I calculate this by multiplying the # of EV the state has by the Democrats's chances of winning in that state. For this scenario, I used the 2004 results for the Dems chances of winning. Here is the formula:
[1/(GOP margin of victory)]*# of EV.

Using this formula, I see that IA and OH are numbers 1 and 2 respectively. I do not need to post the others b/c OH and IA will give the Dems the election. Now, I will find the Dem leaning swing states that the Dems need to protect the most using this formula:
[1/(Dem margin of victory)]*# of EV.

Using this formula, I see that WI and PA are the ones the Dems need to protect most. Given these things, here is my map:

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TomC
TCash101
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2007, 11:39:34 PM »

Your basic premise is fair enough, except to call them GOP-leaning is a bit biased. Dems have won Iowa 3/4 of the last elections, Penn and Wisc 4 out of the last 4, and Ohio 2 out of 4. I could agree Ohio is Rep leaning but not the other three.

Plus, they all four currently have Dem governors.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2007, 11:41:07 PM »

Your asic premise is fair enough, except to call them GOP-leaning is a bit biased. Dems have won Iowa 3/4 of the last elections, Penn and Wisc 4 out of the last 4, and Ohio 2 out of 4. I could agree Ohio is Rep leaning but not the other three.

I agree with you. I just put IA and OH as GOP-leaning b/c they went like that in the last election. I didn't call WI and PA GOP-leaning.
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opebo
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2007, 10:34:58 AM »

Nice analysis, though common knowledge.  Pennsylvania should be in no danger, Wisconsin only slightly.  Ohio is where the election will be decided.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2007, 10:44:55 AM »

Interesting. This shows that right now, Republicans still hold a good electoral map. If reality plays out, then the Republican candidate will almost certainly get 260 EV before the big states are played out, and if they win either Ohio, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, they win the election.
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YRABNNRM
YoungRepub
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2007, 11:45:10 AM »

They really should try to go after NM, CO, NV and maybe even MO and VA.
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TomC
TCash101
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2007, 03:47:44 PM »

For the Dems to really break out and move beyond the basic map of the last two elections, they need to improve in one or more of these three geographic areas:

Ohio-WV-Va- Virginia is a tough one but trending towards the Dems, WV should be going Dem but is trending GOP, along with the rest of the South. WV was really the last hold out.

Ia-Mo-Ark- Missouri and Iowa should be able to tilt Dem if all else is equal, but Arkansas is much tougher, especially if the nominee is from outside the South. The 64 million dollar question is: Is Hillary from the South?

Colo-NM-Nev- Here, I'd include Arizona if McCain is not the nominee. To me, this is the natural area of the three for the Dems to really work, based on demographic changes.

So, the above map implies the Dems are trying to hold on to states they've been winning, plus pick up Ohio. In terms of states to work, they need to really pick one or more of the areas I've listed and push South or West.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2007, 01:32:05 PM »

Light blue are long shots, for sure.
Grey, unlikely, but possible.
Pink are the true swing states, I think (only 9).
Orange states, might also turnout to be swing states.

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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2007, 07:50:07 AM »

Interesting. This shows that right now, Republicans still hold a good electoral map. If reality plays out, then the Republican candidate will almost certainly get 260 EV before the big states are played out, and if they win either Ohio, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, they win the election.

Well, let's hope reality stays out of this then.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2007, 06:40:28 PM »

Note: Just because the map portrays NV, NM, CO, FL going Republican doesn't mean that a GOP victory there is certain. It just means that they eont be the major parties' major targets in 08.
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Reignman
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« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2007, 05:53:56 AM »

They really should try to go after NM, CO, NV and maybe even MO and VA.

FL, too.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2007, 07:47:44 PM »

There is only one key state for the Democrats: OH. 
If they win OH they will win the election.
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Reignman
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2007, 09:01:27 PM »

There is only one key state for the Democrats: OH. 
If they win OH they will win the election.

You might be right about that.

I think Andromeda Islands has a pretty accurate map.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2007, 09:37:32 PM »

I think more pressure on Colorado is important in the long term. Cracking down there and New Mexico may prove very useful in the future, especially if VA flips.
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