Your County's Margin vs. The National Average, Presidential Elections 1960-2004

[nclib]

Here are the national margins:

1960: D +0.2
1964: D +22.6
1968: R +0.7
1972: R +23.1
1976: D +2.1
1980: R +9.7
1984: R +18.2
1988: R +7.7
1992: D +5.6
1996: D +8.5
2000: D +0.5
2004: R +2.5

Orange County, NC margin:

1960: D +15.8
1964: D +22.8
1968: D +12.4
1972: D +4.1
1976: D +25.6
1980: D +20.9
1984: D +13.7
1988: D +21.1
1992: D +33.0
1996: D +29.1
2000: D +26.4
2004: D +34.5

So the difference in Orange, NC compared to the national average is...

1960: 15.6 pts more Democratic than the national average
1964: 0.2 pts more Democratic than the national average
1968: 13.1 pts more Democratic than the national average
1972: 27.2 pts  more Democratic than the national average
1976: 23.5 pts more Democratic than the national average
1980: 30.6 pts more Democratic than the national average
1984: 31.9 pts more Democratic than the national average
1988: 28.8 pts more Democratic than the national average
1992: 27.4 pts more Democratic than the national average
1996: 20.6 pts more Democratic than the national average
2000: 25.9 pts more Democratic than the national average
2004: 37.0 pts more Democratic than the national average

[Rob]

Compared to national margin.

1960: R +6
1964: D +12
1968: R +5
1972: D +21 ("realignment" may be an understatement)
1976: D +7
1980: D +8
1984: D +20 ()
1988: D +25
1992: D +16
1996: D +7 (Nader did very, very well)
2000: D +11
2004:  D +15

[Smash255]

Nassau NY

1960 10.63% more GOP
1964 1.06% more GOP
1968 7.25% more GOP
1972 3.67% more GOP
1976 6.20% more GOP'
1980 11.39% more GOP
1984 5.65% more GOP
1988 7.01% more GOP
1992 0.30% more DEM
1996 11.08% more DEM
2000 18.92% more DEM
2004 8.07% more DEM

[nclib]

Nassau NY

1960 10.63% more GOP
1964 1.06% more GOP
1968 7.25% more GOP
1972 3.67% more GOP
1976 6.20% more GOP'
1980 11.39% more GOP
1984 5.65% more GOP
1988 7.01% more GOP
1992 0.30% more DEM
1996 11.08% more DEM
2000 18.92% more DEM
2004 8.07% more DEM

Interesting how the most dense suburb of NYC was more Republican than the national average every year from 1960-1988.

I guess this shows how economic issues played a greater role those years.

[© tweed]

Suffolk County, NY

1960: R +18.87
1964: R +11.48
1968: R +24.80
1972: R +16.75
1976: R +10.86
1980: R +13.96
1984: R +14.09
1988: R +14.08
1992: R +7.06
1996: D +7.19
2000: D +10.87
2004: D +3.39

[Ebowed]

1960: 14.5% more GOP
1964: 30.6% more GOP
1968: 0.1% more GOP
1972: 8.1% more GOP
1976: 0.5% more GOP
1980: 4.4% more GOP
1984: 5.0% more GOP
1988: 5.9% more GOP
1992: 10.6% more GOP
1996: 9.6% more GOP
2000: 4.3% more GOP
2004: 0.9% more GOP

[Smash255]

Nassau NY

1960 10.63% more GOP
1964 1.06% more GOP
1968 7.25% more GOP
1972 3.67% more GOP
1976 6.20% more GOP'
1980 11.39% more GOP
1984 5.65% more GOP
1988 7.01% more GOP
1992 0.30% more DEM
1996 11.08% more DEM
2000 18.92% more DEM
2004 8.07% more DEM

Interesting how the most dense suburb of NYC was more Republican than the national average every year from 1960-1988.

I guess this shows how economic issues played a greater role those years.

For a long time the base of the GOP centered around white middle to upper middle class highly educated suburbanites.   With the GOP moving hard right on social issues, that is now gone in many areas, as they have fled the GOP in droves.

With that being said the area has moved towards the left on both issues.  Back then Nassau would generally be considered as economically conservative, socially moderate (maybe a shade left of center) now its economically center to center-left and socially liberal.  So it has moved left on both fronts, and would have become more Democratic anyway, but the GOP's sharp right turn socially made it a much larger turn.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

1960: R +17.1
1964: R +8.4
1968: R +0.9
1972: D +14.4
1976: D +1.5
1980: D +5.7
1984: D +9.0
1988: D +9.4
1992: D +4.9
1996: D +4.7
2000: R +2.7
2004: D +5.9

Yeah, we realigned in 1972 of all times.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1960 D+8.6
1964 D+10.3
1968 D+17.0
1972 D+35.4
1976 D+17.8
1980 D+20.0
1984 D+36.9
1988 D+38.5
1992 D+37.0
1996 D+34.2
2000 D+44.8
2004 D+54.4

Bush accelerated a definite trend.

[© tweed]

What county do you live in, jfern?

Looks like Alameda

[bullmoose88]

Wherever UC Berkley is.

[bullmoose88]

Somerset County does not like Bush, but really liked Johnson.

The same is true for San Francisco

[nclib]

1960: 14.5% more GOP
1964: 30.6% more GOP
1968: 0.1% more GOP
1972: 8.1% more GOP
1976: 0.5% more GOP
1980: 4.4% more GOP
1984: 5.0% more GOP
1988: 5.9% more GOP
1992: 10.6% more GOP
1996: 9.6% more GOP
2000: 4.3% more GOP
2004: 0.9% more GOP

Porce/Ebowed,

Is this S.C. or Oregon? Whereabouts?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I don't want to know how horribly Dem Bergen is trending

As they say:
As Bergen Goes, So Goes NJ

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't want to know how horribly Dem Bergen is trending

As they say:
As Bergen Goes, So Goes NJ

false. See 1992.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a few more in Minnesota:

Olmsted:

1960: R +19.3
1964: R +10.5
1968: R +11.5
1972: R +17.4
1976: R +25.7
1980: R +11.6
1984: R +8.1
1988: R +9.7
1992: R +13.3
1996: R +8.5
2000: R +8.6
2004: R +3.2

Hmmmm, I see a trend...

My future home Hennepin:

1960: R +3.0
1964: R +0.8
1968: D +13.0
1972: D +17.9
1976: D +7.3
1980: D +18.5
1984: D +21.7
1988: D +17.5
1992: D +11.1
1996: D +12.7
2000: D +13.8
2004: R +22.4

Mower:

1960: R +5.32
1964: D +12.5
1968: D +17.6
1972: D +24.8
1976: D +19.7
1980: D +22.6
1984: D +39.7
1988: D +33.6
1992: D +18.1
1996: D +21.5
2000: D +20.2
2004: D +26.0

One hell of a realignment.

[nclib]

The rest of the Triangle in NC:

Durham County, NC:

1960: D +14.8 (14.6 more DEM)
1964: D +20.0 (2.6 more GOP)
1968: D +9.0 (9.7 more DEM) (Wallace beat Nixon)
1972: R +24.0 (0.9 more GOP)
1976: D +8.4 (6.3 more DEM)
1980: D +11.9 (21.6 more DEM)
1984: D +5.0 (23.2 more DEM)
1988: D +8.4 (16.1 more DEM)
1992: D +23.8 (18.2 more DEM)
1996: D +26.4 (17.9 more DEM)
2000: D +28.1 (27.6 more DEM)
2004: D +36.4 (38.9 more DEM)

Wake County, NC:

1960: D +17.2 (17.0 more DEM)
1964: D +16.8 (5.8 more GOP)
1968: R +11.9 (11.2 more GOP)
1972: R +42.1 (19.0 more GOP)
1976: R +0.3 (2.4 more GOP)
1980: R +0.7 (9.0 more DEM)
1984: R +23.4 (5.2 more GOP)
1988: R +14.1 (6.4 more GOP)
1992: D +1.1 (4.5 more GOP)
1996: R +2.3 (10.8 more GOP)
2000: R +7.1 (7.6 more GOP)
2004: R +2.1 (0.4 more DEM)


Interesting how Durham has increased its Democratic margin every year since 1984. Does anyone know of any other county in this situation?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Denton County, TX

1960: R+3.2 (3.4% more GOP)

1964: D+35.6 (13% more DEM)

1968: R+4.0 (3.3% more GOP)

1972: R+32.6 (9.5% more GOP)

1976: R+3.9 (6% more GOP)

1980: R+25.1 (15.4% more GOP)

1984: R+51.7 (33.5% more GOP)

1988: R+37.1 (29.4% more GOP)

1992: R+17.7 (23.3% more GOP; Perot did better than Clinton here)

1996: R+26.2 (34.3% more GOP)

2000: R+42.3 (42.8% more GOP)

2004: R+40.8 (38.3% more GOP)

My grand and beautiful Denton, not a single elected Democrat official, not even in the college town.

[nclib]

San Juan County, Washington
1960: R +28.3
1964: R +18.8
1968: R +23.7
1972: R +8.4
1976: R +16.4
1980: R +4.2
1984: D +11.2
1988: D +13.7
1992: D +14.8
1996: D +7.0
2000: D +16.4 (thanks to Nader over 10%)
2004: D +35.2

(The reverse Reagan effect!)

Alcon, what is San Juan County like, culturally and politically?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Burlington County, NJ

1960: R +3.6% - 3.8% more Republican than the national average
1964: D +29.7% - 7.1% more Democratic than the national average
1968: R +4.5% - 3.8% more Republican than the national average
1972: R +25.7% - 2.6% more Republican than the national average
1976: D +1.8% - 0.3% more Republican than the national average
1980: R +13.9% - 4.2% more Republican than the national average
1984: R +21.9% - 3.7% more Republican than the national average
1988: R +17.5% - 9.8% more Republican than the national average
1992: D +5.2% - 0.4% more Republican than the national average
1996: D +16.9% - 8.4% more Democratic than the national average
2000: D +15.3% - 14.8% more Democratic than the national average
2004: D +7.0% - 9.5% more Democratic than the national average

Basically, we're a densely populated bunch of suburbs, and we turned with the rest of Jersey's suburbs in the '92 and '96 elections.  Bush did see a little bounce here like the rest of the state, but 10% more Dem than the country is still pretty significant for a county that most likely is very even in voter registration, maybe even with a small advantage for the Republicans.