Public Policy Polling NC: Dole well ahead, but under 50

[InsideTheBeltway]

I found this poll done by Public Policy Polling (are they a D firm?  for some reason I remember that they are) which shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole ahead 45-30 over Democrat Bob Etheridge.  Etheridge is a moderate Democrat from Raleigh who represents the 2nd district.  I hadn't seriously heard Etheridge mentioned as a candiate before.

http://www.newsobserver.com/659/story/543308.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

Possibly flawed but interesting nonetheless.  I doubt Etheridge will run, he is probably too old at 67 in 2008.  However, I do think that the race would obviously be closer - Etheridge is not well known statewide.  He represents NC-2.  I am beginning to feel that Dole will get a serious challenge in 2008 - from whom, who knows?  But experience from 2006 tells me not to underestimate Charles Schumer.  It seems Dole's lackluster performance at the NRSC left her vulnerable at home as well.  And there is a long list of strong, potential Democratic candidates. 

[WalterMitty]

Etheridge is not well known statewide. 

he has won a statewide race before.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Etheridge is not well known statewide. 

he has won a statewide race before.

Yes you are correct - he was Superintendant of Public Instruction from 1989-96.  Then he was elected to Congress.

[WalterMitty]

Etheridge is not well known statewide. 

he has won a statewide race before.

Yes you are correct - he was Superintendant of Public Instruction from 1989-96.  Then he was elected to Congress.

i also doubt he will run for the senate.

not only is he aged, but he has sort of an abrasive personality.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Etheridge is not well known statewide. 

he has won a statewide race before.

Yes you are correct - he was Superintendant of Public Instruction from 1989-96.  Then he was elected to Congress.

i also doubt he will run for the senate.

not only is he aged, but he has sort of an abrasive personality.

What do you think of the Senate race overall?  Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller would both be good Democratic candidates.  I don't know if either of them is likely to run, however.  And both Lieutenant Governor Beverley Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore are running for Governor in 2008.  I hope Schumer may persuade Easley to run. 

[RBH]

The thing with McIntyre is that the bench in his district might be questionable.

I know that the Robeson county House and Senate members don't look that youthful.

[WalterMitty]

Etheridge is not well known statewide. 

he has won a statewide race before.

Yes you are correct - he was Superintendant of Public Instruction from 1989-96.  Then he was elected to Congress.

i also doubt he will run for the senate.

not only is he aged, but he has sort of an abrasive personality.

What do you think of the Senate race overall?  Mike McIntyre and Brad Miller would both be good Democratic candidates.  I don't know if either of them is likely to run, however.  And both Lieutenant Governor Beverley Perdue and Attorney General Richard Moore are running for Governor in 2008.  I hope Schumer may persuade Easley to run. 

moore is state treasurer.

i suspect dems will try to persuade either perdue or moore to run for senate rather than governor for two reasons: 1. to avoid a bloody primary fight for governor and 2. to give the dems a shot at beating dole.

i dont think either are interested.  in that case, the dems will probably run a sacrificial lamb.

i dont see miller or shuler risking their political career by challenging dole.

id be really surprised to see easley run.  i really think he is done with politics.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I think Shuler will run against Burr in 2010, and win (it's the cursed seat after all)

[WalterMitty]

I think Shuler will run against Burr in 2010, and win (it's the cursed seat after all)

that is very possible.

but shuler must get reelected in 08.  that seat is far from 'safe dem'

[RBH]

As long as Shuler doesn't make any dumb votes, he can get re-elected easily.

Like Mike McIntyre does.

[WalterMitty]

As long as Shuler doesn't make any dumb votes, he can get re-elected easily.

Like Mike McIntyre does.

two completely different districts.

mcintyre's district has a very high percentage of black voters he can count on (and indian votes in robeson county)

[Mr.Phips]

As long as Shuler doesn't make any dumb votes, he can get re-elected easily.

Like Mike McIntyre does.

two completely different districts.

mcintyre's district has a very high percentage of black voters he can count on (and indian votes in robeson county)

Bush only got 57% in NC-11 in 2004.  That is not good for a Republican President in the South.  NC-11 is really a yellow dog Democratic district. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

Shuler will win as long as he doesn't turn out to be far more socially liberal than he campaigned as.

[Mr.Phips]

Shuler will win as long as he doesn't turn out to be far more socially liberal than he campaigned as.

He's off to a good start.  He even voted against stem cell research.

[Rob]

Shuler will win as long as he doesn't turn out to be far more socially liberal than he campaigned as.

He voted against stem-cell research, so I think he's safe on that front.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Like Zack Space in OH-18, Heath Shuler won by a large enough victory in 2006 to demonstrate that he is probably safe in 2008.  In fact, the Democrats may be saved by the fact that they ran close races in but ultimately lots Districts like ID-1, WY-AL and OH-2.