PA-08 2008 matchup

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Murphy/Murphy

[MAS117]

Murphy/Murphy

[bullmoose88]

I'm pretty sure I'd vote for Fitz, though Murphy could win me over (unlikely)...at this point, the race favors Murphy, barring a democratic scandal, murphy screwup, or great Republican Presidential ticket.

[Beet]

What would you want to see Murphy do to have a shot at your vote, moose?

[Keystone Phil]

Fitz/close but probably Fitz

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy/Murphy by a comfortable margin

[Keystone Phil]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

[Keystone Phil]

The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

They were happy with Fitz on those issues. Believe me, if it wasn't for Murphy being an Iraq war vet, the race wouldn't have been that close.

[MarkWarner08]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

[Keystone Phil]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

I know you said you didn't mind Fitz but you'd actually vote for him? Wow.

[bullmoose88]

What would you want to see Murphy do to have a shot at your vote, moose?

I'd like him to be more economically conservative (no, he doesn't have to be that economically conservative, but it would help)...voting in favor of the minimum wage bill won't endear me to him, though I accept that 1) the bill would have passed anyway, 2) the economic effects won't be so bad in the Northeast where the minimum wage is near the new floor, 3) a new congressman would screw himself over if he decided to show testicular fortitude.

It'd be nice if he was a Republican too (personal preference for the brand).

Thing is, I like Fitzpatrick...that in itself will be hard to overcome.

[bullmoose88]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

[Mr.Phips]

The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

They were happy with Fitz on those issues. Believe me, if it wasn't for Murphy being an Iraq war vet, the race wouldn't have been that close.

I think he still woudl have lost.  This is a district that just has trended more and more Democratic and the voters are beginning to vote that way at the Congressional level.  This same type of thing happened to Democrats who tried to reclaim their seats in the South after 1994.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

So you'd vote for a guy who casts a few token environmental votes (like Gerlach basically) and who votes for John Boehner as Speaker over a guy who'd be just as good on those issues, and many more who votes for Nancy Pelosi and Speaker?

And Phil, no offense but you sound like Naso with your view that everything is going to be going just perfectly fine in Iraq in 2008.

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

I have years of Almanac's of American politics that I am always going through.  This is a district that liberal John frickin' Kerry won.  I have also studied how Peter Kostermeyer was elected here in the 1970's and 1980's when the district was very Republican(Bush 41 got 61% here and Reagan got 63% in 1984).  He did so by being economically populist and being terrific with constituent services.

[Keystone Phil]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

So you'd vote for a guy who casts a few token environmental votes (like Gerlach basically) and who votes for John Boehner as Speaker over a guy who'd be just as good on those issues, and many more who votes for Nancy Pelosi and Speaker?

Token environmental support? Fitz has been a champion for open space and was endorsed by the Sierra Club.

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I never said that it will all be perfectly fine. I said I don't think it will be as big of an issue. You shouldn't expect it to get as much attention and bring more support your way when we are two years away.

The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

They were happy with Fitz on those issues. Believe me, if it wasn't for Murphy being an Iraq war vet, the race wouldn't have been that close.

I think he still woudl have lost.  This is a district that just has trended more and more Democratic and the voters are beginning to vote that way at the Congressional level.  This same type of thing happened to Democrats who tried to reclaim their seats in the South after 1994.

I don't think Fitz would have still lost. Murphy had appeal because he was a vet. He wouldn't have received the money or manpower if he didn't have that appeal. Plus, he only won by a few hundred votes. I think Fitz could have won those people over if he wasn't running against this young guy who served in Iraq.

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

Mr. Phips seems to be interested in many House races especially those in PA.

[Keystone Phil]

This is a district that liberal John frickin' Kerry won.[/qupte]

Pennsylvanians are pretty consistent with their partisanship on the Presidential level.

  

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Yes, but he also lost twice.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

So you'd vote for a guy who casts a few token environmental votes (like Gerlach basically) and who votes for John Boehner as Speaker over a guy who'd be just as good on those issues, and many more who votes for Nancy Pelosi and Speaker?

Token environmental support? Fitz has been a champion for open space and was endorsed by the Sierra Club.

And Nancy Johnson was endorsed by NARAL, but hell would freeze over before she'd get any vote of mine.

I never said that it will all be perfectly fine. I said I don't think it will be as big of an issue. You shouldn't expect it to get as much attention and bring more support your way when we are two years away.

How is Iraq going to fade as an issue if things keep going as bad as they are now? It's not like Bush is trying to drop involvement there. People aren't going to forget it all of a sudden.

[Mr.Phips]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

So you'd vote for a guy who casts a few token environmental votes (like Gerlach basically) and who votes for John Boehner as Speaker over a guy who'd be just as good on those issues, and many more who votes for Nancy Pelosi and Speaker?

Token environmental support? Fitz has been a champion for open space and was endorsed by the Sierra Club.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I never said that it will all be perfectly fine. I said I don't think it will be as big of an issue. You shouldn't expect it to get as much attention and bring more support your way when we are two years away.

The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

They were happy with Fitz on those issues. Believe me, if it wasn't for Murphy being an Iraq war vet, the race wouldn't have been that close.

I think he still woudl have lost.  This is a district that just has trended more and more Democratic and the voters are beginning to vote that way at the Congressional level.  This same type of thing happened to Democrats who tried to reclaim their seats in the South after 1994.

I don't think Fitz would have still lost. Murphy had appeal because he was a vet. He wouldn't have received the money or manpower if he didn't have that appeal. Plus, he only won by a few hundred votes. I think Fitz could have won those people over if he wasn't running against this young guy who served in Iraq.

It was actually about 1700 votes.  I think any decent Democrat(not Schrader) would have beat Fitzpatrick in that district.  The district has changed.

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

Mr. Phips seems to be interested in many House races especially those in PA.
[/quote]

Yes.  I am interested in pretty much any competitive district in the country.

[bullmoose88]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

I have years of Almanac's of American politics that I am always going through.  This is a district that liberal John frickin' Kerry won.  I have also studied how Peter Kostermeyer was elected here in the 1970's and 1980's when the district was very Republican(Bush 41 got 61% here and Reagan got 63% in 1984).  He did so by being economically populist and being terrific with constituent services.

Other than that, you have no first hand accounts about the district itself.

Your analysis isn't bad, its not wrong to look at the data that way, but I think you're missing a dynamic that you'd probably see if you had first hand knowledge.

Which is probably pretty fricken difficult from your position, so I can't fault you.

Now the real question one has to ask oneself...did John Kerry win the 8th, or did George W Bush lose the district.

If you answer Kerry, then obviously you'd take those numbers and say the district is just becoming more democratic...which isn't in[edit]correct...but I wouldn't go so far to say that the 8th is inherently a democratic district...at least...yet.

It doesn't explain how a 40,000 vote majority falls in the main county to just 1,000 votes in 2 years when by all accounts Fitzpatrick wasn't unpopular (I'd argue that he was pretty popular).

I'd argue Fitz was taken down in vote against George W. Bush. Fitz held his own in the democratic areas of Bucks County, and did not get the turnout in Republican strongholds.

I can't believe that such a sudden realignment would occur in just 2 years.


My whining and moaning aside, I certainly agree Murphy is the favorite. Bucks is pro-incumbent, and Murphy has not done anything to cause a shift...and neither has the Democratic Party and its most prominent leader Pelosi to kick Murphy's feet out from under him, as Bush's idiocy did to Fitz.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

[bullmoose88]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

I have years of Almanac's of American politics that I am always going through.  This is a district that liberal John frickin' Kerry won.  I have also studied how Peter Kostermeyer was elected here in the 1970's and 1980's when the district was very Republican(Bush 41 got 61% here and Reagan got 63% in 1984).  He did so by being economically populist and being terrific with constituent services.

Other than that, you have no first hand accounts about the district itself.

Your analysis isn't bad, its not wrong to look at the data that way, but I think you're missing a dynamic that you'd probably see if you had first hand knowledge.

Which is probably pretty fricken difficult from your position, so I can't fault you.

Now the real question one has to ask oneself...did John Kerry win the 8th, or did George W Bush lose the district.

If you answer Kerry, then obviously you'd take those numbers and say the district is just becoming more democratic...which isn't in[edit]correct...but I wouldn't go so far to say that the 8th is inherently a democratic district...at least...yet.

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the point there is more that incumbents in districts that vote for their party's nominees don't lose unless they're in too long and basically become wastes of space like Phil Crane or Sam Gejedson. That's the exact opposite of Murphy.

As far as Fitzpatrick goes, how could he be supposedly insanely popular? He was a one-termer. Sure he won big originally in 2004 but he had a joke opponent.

Insanely popular? No.

Popular...or at the very least, (or what one would think as...)sufficently popular? yes.

But how did he get that being only a first termer?

And I never really saw him as too in touch with the district on the issues at all, as this ad shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC7saDfx43E

He's not Tom Coburn but he's definitely not Jim Greenwood either.