Find a 2002 map. Most probably the regions Le Pen and Chirac won would go Republican (although some Chirac regions would go Dem) and the Socialist regions to the Dems. Remember UMP is less conservative than the GOP and the PS is more leftist than the Dems.
Well that's not really the case. I'm sure if Al would take notice of this thread he would lambast you for saying something that simplistic. Also the 2002 map would have alot of regions won with 20% or 30% of the vote and the second round map is useless.
If we just transported the American Republican Party to France I could see Le Pen beating them if they came with the baggage of Republican policies and foreign hatred for the Republicans with them.