Gerrymandering Tennessee

[RBH]

Here's my attempt to shift the delegation from 5/4 Dem to something else.



Incumbents
CD01 (Orange): David Davis (R) and Lincoln Davis (D)
CD02 (Yellow): John Duncan (R)
CD03 (Pink): Open Seat
CD04 (Skyblue): Jim Cooper (R)
CD05 (Yellow): Marsha Blackburn (R) and John Tanner (D)
CD06 (Skyblue, SE TN): Zach Wamp (R)
CD07 (Green): Open Seat
CD08 (Pink, Cent TN): Bart Gordon (D)
CD09 (Red): Steve Cohen (D)

Partisan temperatures for each district (from the 2004 Presidential election):

CD01: 61/39 Bush
CD02: 65/34 Bush
CD03: 66/33 Bush
CD04: 51/48 Bush
CD05: 60/39 Bush
CD06: 58/41 Bush
CD07: 60/39 Bush
CD08: 62/38 Bush
CD09: 70/30 Kerry

The fate of the Dems
Lincoln Davis gets a much much redder district with a lot of historically Republican territory.
Jim Cooper's district is probably close to being the same.
John Tanner gets to face an incumbent Republican in a very Republican district.
Bart Gordon goes from a 60/40 district to a 62/38 district
Steve Cohen gets the same district.

So at the very least, Davis and Tanner are both close to being goners.

The population splits for counties

Bledsoe - 7087 in CD01, 5280 in CD06
Blount - 19034 in CD02, 86789 in CD03
Carroll - 9542 in CD05, 19933 in CD07
Cumberland - 20869 in CD03, 25933 in CD06
Lawrence - 21881 in CD05, 18045 in CD06
Maury - 38649 in CD06, 30849 in CD08
Shelby - 632143 in CD09, 265329 in CD07
Williamson - 62252 in CD04, 64386 in CD05

Any thoughts on this map?

[Mr.Phips]

You could probably defeat Blackburn in TN-07 by snaking in and giving her some black TN-09 precincts.  This would turn TN-07 into a swing district(54%/46%) and Blackburn would have a tough time holding it.

[RBH]

Yeah, but i'm aiming for a map where around 2 to 4 Democrats lose.

So I could give her all of Williamson and Fayette, and draw the lines to put Tanner's house in Blackburn's district.

[memphis]

Tanner would defeat Blackburn in your 7th district, which becomes very rural. Blackburn is too suburban. However, she could move to suburban Memphis and win your 8th very easily.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, but i'm aiming for a map where around 2 to 4 Democrats lose.

So I could give her all of Williamson and Fayette, and draw the lines to put Tanner's house in Blackburn's district.

I don't know why you would want to do that.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, but i'm aiming for a map where around 2 to 4 Democrats lose.

So I could give her all of Williamson and Fayette, and draw the lines to put Tanner's house in Blackburn's district.

I don't know why you would want to do that.

Intellectual curiousity, pure and simple.

[Nym90]

Htmldon is going to have a wet dream over this map.

[memphis]

Htmldon is going to have a wet dream over this map.

I don't see why. With current incumbants, it would either stay 5-4 Dem or shift back to the 5-4 Rep that we had before the most recent gerrymander. The Bush v. Kerry numbers are virtually irrelavant as the majority of TN's Dem reps win in districts that voted for Bush in 2004.
My analysis:
CD 1: The only true tossup. Democratic E of Nashville vs. Republicans in NE
CD 2: Strong Republican
CD 3: Strong Republican
CD 4: Strong Democrat (Cooper is a Dem, btw and I don't know how you have Davidson County voting for Bush. It certainly did not)
CD 5: Lean Democratic. Only part that will vote against Tanner is half of Williamson County
CD 6: Strong Republican
CD 7: Strong Republican
CD 8: Strong Democratic
CD 9: Strong Democratic

[RBH]

CD 4: Strong Democrat (Cooper is a Dem, btw and I don't know how you have Davidson County voting for Bush. It certainly did not)

The district could be 50/50 since half of Williamson is in the district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Interesting map.  I tried gerrymandering Massachusetts once to maximize seats for the GOP just to see if it could be done, but I couldn't even squeeze out one Bush majority district.

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting map.  I tried gerrymandering Massachusetts once to maximize seats for the GOP just to see if it could be done, but I couldn't even squeeze out one Bush majority district.

Bush didn't win a single county in Massachusetts.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There are about as many counties in Massachusetts as there are congressional districts.

I went through making my map on a town-by-town basis.

[memphis]

CD 4: Strong Democrat (Cooper is a Dem, btw and I don't know how you have Davidson County voting for Bush. It certainly did not)

The district could be 50/50 since half of Williamson is in the district.

No way. Cooper regularly gets 70% in Davidson County. Half of Williamson is not going to give him any trouble at all. By splitting Williamson, you're really "wasting" a lot of Republican votes.

[RBH]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

[memphis]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

Nicely done. Tanner would do horribly in Williamson County, which would be, by far, the most populous county. He's still hugely popular along the Tennessee River, where Blackburn would do horribly.  It'd be interesting to see how that would play out.

[Mr.Phips]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

Nicely done. Tanner would do horribly in Williamson County, which would be, by far, the most populous county. He's still hugely popular along the Tennessee River, where Blackburn would do horribly.  It'd be interesting to see how that would play out.

I wonder if the current TN-03 would elect a Bart Gordon or Lincoln Davis style Dem.  It only voted for Bush by 61/38, much lower than TN-01, TN-02, or TN-07 and that percentage is similar to both Gordon's and Davis' districts.  It also, albeit narrowly used to elect Democrat Marilyn Lloyd until 1994.

[RBH]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

Nicely done. Tanner would do horribly in Williamson County, which would be, by far, the most populous county. He's still hugely popular along the Tennessee River, where Blackburn would do horribly.  It'd be interesting to see how that would play out.

I wonder if the current TN-03 would elect a Bart Gordon or Lincoln Davis style Dem.  It only voted for Bush by 61/38, much lower than TN-01, TN-02, or TN-07 and that percentage is similar to both Gordon's and Davis' districts.  It also, albeit narrowly used to elect Democrat Marilyn Lloyd until 1994.

I doubt it.

The districts and their 2000 and 2004 splits

TN-1: 52/46 Bush, 61/39 Bush
TN-2: 60/38 Bush, 65/34 Bush
TN-3: 59/39 Bush, 66/33 Bush
TN-4: 56/42 Gore, 52/48 Kerry
TN-5: 53/45 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-6: 53/45 Bush, 58/41 Bush
TN-7: 53/44 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-8: 52/47 Bush, 62/38 Bush
TN-9: 64/36 Gore, 70/30 Kerry

I think that creating a map where Gore wins 47% and 2 of 9 districts is deserving of praise.

Gore won 3 of 9 districts on the current map, while winning 49% in 2 more districts.

[Mr.Phips]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

Nicely done. Tanner would do horribly in Williamson County, which would be, by far, the most populous county. He's still hugely popular along the Tennessee River, where Blackburn would do horribly.  It'd be interesting to see how that would play out.

I wonder if the current TN-03 would elect a Bart Gordon or Lincoln Davis style Dem.  It only voted for Bush by 61/38, much lower than TN-01, TN-02, or TN-07 and that percentage is similar to both Gordon's and Davis' districts.  It also, albeit narrowly used to elect Democrat Marilyn Lloyd until 1994.

I doubt it.

The districts and their 2000 and 2004 splits

TN-1: 52/46 Bush, 61/39 Bush
TN-2: 60/38 Bush, 65/34 Bush
TN-3: 59/39 Bush, 66/33 Bush
TN-4: 56/42 Gore, 52/48 Kerry
TN-5: 53/45 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-6: 53/45 Bush, 58/41 Bush
TN-7: 53/44 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-8: 52/47 Bush, 62/38 Bush
TN-9: 64/36 Gore, 70/30 Kerry

I think that creating a map where Gore wins 47% and 2 of 9 districts is deserving of praise.

Gore won 3 of 9 districts on the current map, while winning 49% in 2 more districts.

I mean under the current map.

[RBH]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

Nicely done. Tanner would do horribly in Williamson County, which would be, by far, the most populous county. He's still hugely popular along the Tennessee River, where Blackburn would do horribly.  It'd be interesting to see how that would play out.

I wonder if the current TN-03 would elect a Bart Gordon or Lincoln Davis style Dem.  It only voted for Bush by 61/38, much lower than TN-01, TN-02, or TN-07 and that percentage is similar to both Gordon's and Davis' districts.  It also, albeit narrowly used to elect Democrat Marilyn Lloyd until 1994.

I doubt it.

The districts and their 2000 and 2004 splits

TN-1: 52/46 Bush, 61/39 Bush
TN-2: 60/38 Bush, 65/34 Bush
TN-3: 59/39 Bush, 66/33 Bush
TN-4: 56/42 Gore, 52/48 Kerry
TN-5: 53/45 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-6: 53/45 Bush, 58/41 Bush
TN-7: 53/44 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-8: 52/47 Bush, 62/38 Bush
TN-9: 64/36 Gore, 70/30 Kerry

I think that creating a map where Gore wins 47% and 2 of 9 districts is deserving of praise.

Gore won 3 of 9 districts on the current map, while winning 49% in 2 more districts.

I mean under the current map.

I doubt it

[memphis]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

Nicely done. Tanner would do horribly in Williamson County, which would be, by far, the most populous county. He's still hugely popular along the Tennessee River, where Blackburn would do horribly.  It'd be interesting to see how that would play out.

I wonder if the current TN-03 would elect a Bart Gordon or Lincoln Davis style Dem.  It only voted for Bush by 61/38, much lower than TN-01, TN-02, or TN-07 and that percentage is similar to both Gordon's and Davis' districts.  It also, albeit narrowly used to elect Democrat Marilyn Lloyd until 1994.

I doubt it.

The districts and their 2000 and 2004 splits

TN-1: 52/46 Bush, 61/39 Bush
TN-2: 60/38 Bush, 65/34 Bush
TN-3: 59/39 Bush, 66/33 Bush
TN-4: 56/42 Gore, 52/48 Kerry
TN-5: 53/45 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-6: 53/45 Bush, 58/41 Bush
TN-7: 53/44 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-8: 52/47 Bush, 62/38 Bush
TN-9: 64/36 Gore, 70/30 Kerry

I think that creating a map where Gore wins 47% and 2 of 9 districts is deserving of praise.

Gore won 3 of 9 districts on the current map, while winning 49% in 2 more districts.

I mean under the current map.

I doubt it

I also see it as highly unlikely without redrawing the lines. I could see Hamilton County giving a Dem a small margin if he was just right. Corker didn't do so hot there, and it was his home county. Anderson County will also go slightly Dem under the right circumstances. The rest of the district is about as rural and Republican as you can get.

[Mr.Phips]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

Nicely done. Tanner would do horribly in Williamson County, which would be, by far, the most populous county. He's still hugely popular along the Tennessee River, where Blackburn would do horribly.  It'd be interesting to see how that would play out.

I wonder if the current TN-03 would elect a Bart Gordon or Lincoln Davis style Dem.  It only voted for Bush by 61/38, much lower than TN-01, TN-02, or TN-07 and that percentage is similar to both Gordon's and Davis' districts.  It also, albeit narrowly used to elect Democrat Marilyn Lloyd until 1994.

I doubt it.

The districts and their 2000 and 2004 splits

TN-1: 52/46 Bush, 61/39 Bush
TN-2: 60/38 Bush, 65/34 Bush
TN-3: 59/39 Bush, 66/33 Bush
TN-4: 56/42 Gore, 52/48 Kerry
TN-5: 53/45 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-6: 53/45 Bush, 58/41 Bush
TN-7: 53/44 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-8: 52/47 Bush, 62/38 Bush
TN-9: 64/36 Gore, 70/30 Kerry

I think that creating a map where Gore wins 47% and 2 of 9 districts is deserving of praise.

Gore won 3 of 9 districts on the current map, while winning 49% in 2 more districts.

I mean under the current map.

I doubt it

I think it could be done.  Its simple, run 10 points ahead of Harold Ford in Hamilton County, run eight points ahead in Anderson, and hold even with Ford everywhere else and you have a Democratic victory.

[Mr.Phips]

I did some swapping.

Cheatham and a portion of Montgomery goes to Cooper's district

The rest of Williamson goes to Blackburn/Tanner's district



That moves the thermostat of TN-4 to 52/48 Kerry. TN-5 stays at 60/39 Bush.

Here's the districts that the Dems had to deal with in 2004

L. Davis: 58/42 Bush
Cooper: 53/46 Kerry
Gordon: 60/40 Bush
Tanner: 54/46 Bush

Nicely done. Tanner would do horribly in Williamson County, which would be, by far, the most populous county. He's still hugely popular along the Tennessee River, where Blackburn would do horribly.  It'd be interesting to see how that would play out.

I wonder if the current TN-03 would elect a Bart Gordon or Lincoln Davis style Dem.  It only voted for Bush by 61/38, much lower than TN-01, TN-02, or TN-07 and that percentage is similar to both Gordon's and Davis' districts.  It also, albeit narrowly used to elect Democrat Marilyn Lloyd until 1994.

I doubt it.

The districts and their 2000 and 2004 splits

TN-1: 52/46 Bush, 61/39 Bush
TN-2: 60/38 Bush, 65/34 Bush
TN-3: 59/39 Bush, 66/33 Bush
TN-4: 56/42 Gore, 52/48 Kerry
TN-5: 53/45 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-6: 53/45 Bush, 58/41 Bush
TN-7: 53/44 Bush, 60/39 Bush
TN-8: 52/47 Bush, 62/38 Bush
TN-9: 64/36 Gore, 70/30 Kerry

I think that creating a map where Gore wins 47% and 2 of 9 districts is deserving of praise.

Gore won 3 of 9 districts on the current map, while winning 49% in 2 more districts.

I mean under the current map.

I doubt it

I also see it as highly unlikely without redrawing the lines. I could see Hamilton County giving a Dem a small margin if he was just right. Corker didn't do so hot there, and it was his home county. Anderson County will also go slightly Dem under the right circumstances. The rest of the district is about as rural and Republican as you can get.

Interesting because Clinton actually carried it by like 100 votes in 1992 and only narrowly lost it in 1996.  I think they also took out some Democratic counties in 2001 in order to create a seat for Lincoln Davis. 

[memphis]

A lot has changed since Clinton was president. I just can't see TN-3 electing a Dem. I'd loved to be proved wrong.