1962 Alabama Senate Election (Hill (D) wins by a narrow margin)

[RBH]

A map of Hill's 51/49 win over Jim Martin:



And a summary

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And yes.. Goldwater and Martin shared a stronghold too.

[Rob]

Amazing that Macon remained heavily Democratic. It's the quintessential Black Belt county, but it defied every trend by voting strongly for Hill in this race and- even more impressive- going for the unpledged Democratic slate over Goldwater in 1964.

Were blacks already voting in significant numbers? Or were whites simply so poor that they continued voting Democratic in the face of the civil rights movement? iirc, Gore and Kerry both won the few white precincts in Macon.

[RBH]

Amazing that Macon remained heavily Democratic. It's the quintessential Black Belt county, but it defied every trend by voting strongly for Hill in this race and- even more impressive- going for the unpledged Democratic slate over Goldwater in 1964.

Were blacks already voting in significant numbers? Or were whites simply so poor that they continued voting Democratic in the face of the civil rights movement? iirc, Gore and Kerry both won the few white precincts in Macon.

I don't know the specifics of Macon County, but the Governor primary elections showed that Macon went for Wallace in 1958 (when Wallace ran to the left of Patterson and the Klan), and then voted for Folsom in the 1962 primary and deGreffinreid in the 1962 runoff by a 3 to 2 margin.

The first desegregation of Alabama schools occured in Macon County. Via court order, of course. But, still.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but the Governor primary elections showed that Macon went for Wallace in 1958 (when Wallace ran to the left of Patterson and the Klan

Do you have a map of that?

[Mr.Phips]

Of course the Republican carried Shelby county.  Was that county Republican even after the Civil War?  I can't ever imagine that county voting for a Democrat or even coming close.

[Mr.Phips]

It looks as if Baldwin and Houston counties have been reliably Republican going back to the Civil War.  That explains why Republicans have had no trouble holding AL-01 which is mostly Baldwin county since the 1964.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The only county in Alabama that has been reliably Republic since the Civil War is Winston.
Baldwin and Houston only swung to the Republicans in the '50's.

Interestingly enough Earl Browder took close to 5% in Baldwin in '40.

[Mr.Phips]

The only county in Alabama that has been reliably Republic since the Civil War is Winston.
Baldwin and Houston only swung to the Republicans in the '50's.

Interestingly enough Earl Browder took close to 5% in Baldwin in '40.

Shelby swung Republican in the 1950's too did it not?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shelby swung Republican in the 1950's too did it not?

Yes (and suburbanisation is presumbly behind much of that), though it seems to have always had a Republican minority vote of sorts and actually voted for Charles Evans Hughes in '16.

[RBH]

but the Governor primary elections showed that Macon went for Wallace in 1958 (when Wallace ran to the left of Patterson and the Klan

Do you have a map of that?

I have a map of the runoffs for 1958 and 1962.

But Imageshack is flaking on me big time.

[Mr.Phips]

Anyone here who knows a bit about Alabama politics should be able to answer my question. 

I am wondering what in the world made AL-04 so Republican.  The district loved to elect moderate Democrats in the mold of Heath Shuler and Brad Ellsworth until 1996.  Even in 1996 and 1998, a Democrat almost won this seat.  Now it elects Republican Rob Aderholt by huge margins and gave Bush a 71-28 victory.

Looking at the progression in the Presidential results since 1984:

1984:  Reagan 58%/Mondale 41% (The national average)
1988:  Bush 57%/Dukakis 43%
1992:  Bush 43%/Clinton 43%/Perot 14%
1996:  Dole 47%/Clinton 44%/Perot 9%
2000:  Bush 61%/Gore 38%
2004:  Bush 71%/Kerry 28%

What turned this Republican leaning swing district into a Republican stronghold between 2000 and 2004?

[RBH]

Check the results from Blount and St. Clair counties between 2000 and 2004.

[Mr.Phips]

Check the results from Blount and St. Clair counties between 2000 and 2004.

About 99% of St. Clair is in AL-06 so I don't think that would make a difference. 

Changing the Blount results to 2000 under the 2004 numbers only makes it 70-29 Bush rather than 71-28 Bush.  There must be something else going on.

[memphis]

What I think is really interesting about the early crack in the solid South is that it happened first in urban areas, places that today have swung back to being Dem, thanks to minority voting.  Nixon nearly won DeKalb and Fulton counties, GA in 1960. Nixon won Jefferson, AL and Montgomery, AL by wide margins, despite barely breaking 40% statewide.

[HardRCafé]

Did Martin go on to win anything?

[Mr.Phips]

What I think is really interesting about the early crack in the solid South is that it happened first in urban areas, places that today have swung back to being Dem, thanks to minority voting.  Nixon nearly won DeKalb and Fulton counties, GA in 1960. Nixon won Jefferson, AL and Montgomery, AL by wide margins, despite barely breaking 40% statewide.

Yeah, it is.  Now Jefferson, AL, and Montgomery, AL are actually trending Dem, as are DeKalb, Fulton and even Cobb county in Georgia.

[HardRCafé]

Answered my own question:

unsuccessful candidate for the United States Senate in 1962; elected as a Republican to the Eighty-ninth Congress (January 3, 1965-January 3, 1967); was not a candidate for relection in 1966 to the Ninetieth Congress; unsuccessful candidate for Governor of Alabama in 1966; unsuccessful candidate for Republican nomination to the United States Senate in 1972; unsuccessful candidate for election to the United States Senate in 1978 for the unexpired term of James B. Allen;

[Cubby]

What I think is really interesting about the early crack in the solid South is that it happened first in urban areas, places that today have swung back to being Dem, thanks to minority voting.  Nixon nearly won DeKalb and Fulton counties, GA in 1960. Nixon won Jefferson, AL and Montgomery, AL by wide margins, despite barely breaking 40% statewide.

Yeah, it is.  Now Jefferson, AL, and Montgomery, AL are actually trending Dem, as are DeKalb, Fulton and even Cobb county in Georgia.

If Cobb and Gwinnett were to follow the trend of the Research triangle in NC and Northern VA, that is, heavily populated suburban South areas swinging to the Democrats, that would help the Democrats possibly win Georgia senate and presidential races in the future.

If you look at the 2004 GA swing/trend map, all the inner Atlanta metro counties trended Democrat, while the exurbs like Forsyth (over 80% for Bush!), Cherokee and Walton had awful swings to Bush. I suppose we can thank Zell Miller in part for that. But my point is the whole metro area swung slightly to Kerry while the entire rest of GA (minus some Black Belt counties) swung heavily to Bush. Since Metro Atlanta now makes up 55% of the state's population, thats good news for the Dems.......sort of.

[memphis]

What I think is really interesting about the early crack in the solid South is that it happened first in urban areas, places that today have swung back to being Dem, thanks to minority voting.  Nixon nearly won DeKalb and Fulton counties, GA in 1960. Nixon won Jefferson, AL and Montgomery, AL by wide margins, despite barely breaking 40% statewide.

Yeah, it is.  Now Jefferson, AL, and Montgomery, AL are actually trending Dem, as are DeKalb, Fulton and even Cobb county in Georgia.

If Cobb and Gwinnett were to follow the trend of the Research triangle in NC and Northern VA, that is, heavily populated suburban South areas swinging to the Democrats, that would help the Democrats possibly win Georgia senate and presidential races in the future.

If you look at the 2004 GA swing/trend map, all the inner Atlanta metro counties trended Democrat, while the exurbs like Forsyth (over 80% for Bush!), Cherokee and Walton had awful swings to Bush. I suppose we can thank Zell Miller in part for that. But my point is the whole metro area swung slightly to Kerry while the entire rest of GA (minus some Black Belt counties) swung heavily to Bush. Since Metro Atlanta now makes up 55% of the state's population, thats good news for the Dems.......sort of.

I really can't see Cobb or Gwinett going Dem. Just really not in their culture. It would be like an inner city ghetto going Republican.

[Cubby]

If Cobb and Gwinnett were to follow the trend of the Research triangle in NC and Northern VA, that is, heavily populated suburban South areas swinging to the Democrats, that would help the Democrats possibly win Georgia senate and presidential races in the future.

If you look at the 2004 GA swing/trend map, all the inner Atlanta metro counties trended Democrat, while the exurbs like Forsyth (over 80% for Bush!), Cherokee and Walton had awful swings to Bush. I suppose we can thank Zell Miller in part for that. But my point is the whole metro area swung slightly to Kerry while the entire rest of GA (minus some Black Belt counties) swung heavily to Bush. Since Metro Atlanta now makes up 55% of the state's population, thats good news for the Dems.......sort of.

I really can't see Cobb or Gwinett going Dem. Just really not in their culture. It would be like an inner city ghetto going Republican.

I know it won't happen in the next few elections, but in 15, 20 years, who knows? Fairfax used to be heavily Republican. I don't know what makes Gwinnett, Cobb and the like so different from Fairfax and Raliegh-Durham, all are white collar/middle class areas with lots of recent migrants from up North who are more moderate than their new Southern neighbors, and compared to rural voters in their states, are more concerned with issues like transportation, budgets and the environment than moral values, moral values, moral values.

[memphis]

If Cobb and Gwinnett were to follow the trend of the Research triangle in NC and Northern VA, that is, heavily populated suburban South areas swinging to the Democrats, that would help the Democrats possibly win Georgia senate and presidential races in the future.

If you look at the 2004 GA swing/trend map, all the inner Atlanta metro counties trended Democrat, while the exurbs like Forsyth (over 80% for Bush!), Cherokee and Walton had awful swings to Bush. I suppose we can thank Zell Miller in part for that. But my point is the whole metro area swung slightly to Kerry while the entire rest of GA (minus some Black Belt counties) swung heavily to Bush. Since Metro Atlanta now makes up 55% of the state's population, thats good news for the Dems.......sort of.

I really can't see Cobb or Gwinett going Dem. Just really not in their culture. It would be like an inner city ghetto going Republican.

I know it won't happen in the next few elections, but in 15, 20 years, who knows? Fairfax used to be heavily Republican. I don't know what makes Gwinnett, Cobb and the like so different from Fairfax and Raliegh-Durham, all are white collar/middle class areas with lots of recent migrants from up North who are more moderate than their new Southern neighbors, and compared to rural voters in their states, are more concerned with issues like transportation, budgets and the environment than moral values, moral values, moral values.

Over decades, who knows? Maybe San Fran will be the Republican base then. I'll just say it's not in the foreseeable future.

[RBH]

I really can't see Cobb or Gwinett going Dem. Just really not in their culture. It would be like an inner city ghetto going Republican.

Clayton, 1984: 73/27 Reagan
Cobb, 1984: 77/23 Reagan
DeKalb, 1984: 58/42 Reagan
Gwinnett, 1984: 79/21 Reagan
Rockdale, 1984: 75/25 Reagan
Georgia, 1984: 60/40 Reagan

Clayton, 2004: 70/29 Kerry (42 point shift)
Cobb, 2004: 62/37 Bush (13 point shift)
DeKalb, 2004: 73/23 Kerry (29 point shift)
Gwinnett, 2004: 66/33 Bush (11 point shift)
Rockdale, 2004: 60/39 Bush (13 point shift)
Georgia, 2004: 58/41 Bush

Give Cobb and Gwinnett time, they're in an area that is shifting quickly.

[Mr.Phips]

I really can't see Cobb or Gwinett going Dem. Just really not in their culture. It would be like an inner city ghetto going Republican.

Clayton, 1984: 73/27 Reagan
Cobb, 1984: 77/23 Reagan
DeKalb, 1984: 58/42 Reagan
Gwinnett, 1984: 79/21 Reagan
Rockdale, 1984: 75/25 Reagan
Georgia, 1984: 60/40 Reagan

Clayton, 2004: 70/29 Kerry (42 point shift)
Cobb, 2004: 62/37 Bush (13 point shift)
DeKalb, 2004: 73/23 Kerry (29 point shift)
Gwinnett, 2004: 66/33 Bush (11 point shift)
Rockdale, 2004: 60/39 Bush (13 point shift)
Georgia, 2004: 58/41 Bush

Give Cobb and Gwinnett time, they're in an area that is shifting quickly.

Wow, that is quite a shift, especially figuring that Mondale lost the state by nearly the same margin as Kerry did in 2004.  So, its possible that in another 20 years the demographic changes in fast growing counties like Cobb and Gwinnett will become swing counties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clayton, 2004: 70/29 Kerry (42 point shift)
Cobb, 2004: 62/37 Bush (13 point shift)
DeKalb, 2004: 73/23 Kerry (29 point shift)
Gwinnett, 2004: 66/33 Bush (11 point shift)
Rockdale, 2004: 60/39 Bush (13 point shift)
Georgia, 2004: 58/41 Bush

The changes are largely related to Black people moving out of inner city Atlanta into the inner-suburbs, coupled with White people moving out of the inner-suburbs into outer-suburbs and exurbs/commuterland/etc.

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Cobb is now around 21% Black (up from 18.8% Black in the census), while Gwinnett is now around 18% Black (up from 16% '' ''). The white population in Gwinnett is still growing in absolute terms.

Just to put things into perspective, that's all.

[memphis]

I don't think that it's fair to compare 1984 to 2004 as one was a landslide and the other was not. Like Al said, it has a lot to do with racial demographics. If an area turns black, as Clayton has done it will absolutely change. I guess what my overall point was, which is probably different than what you were getting at, is that I don't see Metro Atlanta, as a whole, as getting more Democratic.