State Congressional Results by County

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I love being lectured being a limey

Ahh... I love the smell of xenophobia in the evening...

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No I didn't. There is a difference between making gains (the Democrats made gains, at various levels, just about everywhere) and sweeping just-about-everything before you. I note that the Democrats did not gain as many seats in New York as they could have done, while I also note that the last Republican left standing in New England represents a district that is, essentially, New York suburbia.

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All over the place up to a point, but mostly in working class/industrial areas or in mixed areas with significant working class/industrial elements.

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Yes, I know that.

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Non

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You didn't even make that point!

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Slightly Republican if 2006 is anything to go by...

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At what point did I deny that?

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I actually agree with you, though I don't see either group as being radical.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

note that the Democrats did not gain as many seats in New York as they could have done

True BUT one must look at the big picture.

There are three GOP congressmen in New York who barely survived. Walsh represents a Democratic-leaning district that we will almost certainly take once he retires, so there's a valid counter-example too. But Reynolds and Kuhl represent districts that on paper really shouldn't be competitive AT ALL. It'd be like a Republican making a close run at MN-08, the fact that they failed to do so doesn't disprove that clearly something is going on to even come close.

Mind you I would've never thought Kelly's district would've been competitive either.

[Mr.Phips]

note that the Democrats did not gain as many seats in New York as they could have done

True BUT one must look at the big picture.

There are three GOP congressmen in New York who barely survived. Walsh represents a Democratic-leaning district that we will almost certainly take once he retires, so there's a valid counter-example too. But Reynolds and Kuhl represent districts that on paper really shouldn't be competitive AT ALL. It'd be like a Republican making a close run at MN-08, the fact that they failed to do so doesn't disprove that clearly something is going on to even come close.

Mind you I would've never thought Kelly's district would've been competitive either.

Kelly's old district is a true swing district, it has a PVI of R+1.

MN-08 could go Republican under the right circumstances.  It only has a PVI of D+4. 

NY-26, Reynolds' district is also pretty competitive.  It has a PVI of R+3, basically the opposite of Saxton's NJ-03 which is D+3.

Kuhl's NY-29 is also competitive as it has a PVI of R+5, the exact opposite of Shays' CT-04 which is D+5.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kelly's old district is a true swing district, it has a PVI of R+1.

True, but based on the demographics (that's definitely one district where you would expect the local GOP to run far ahead of Bush), and the fact that Hall was by far one of the most liberal Democratic challengers last year and you see why it's a shock.

MN-08 could go Republican under the right circumstances.  It only has a PVI of D+4. 

No. Not unless it was a 1994 situation and the DFL put up a really really terrible candidate, say if Phyllis Kahn* moved to Duluth and ran.

The GOP just can't crack Duluth and the Iron Range. And if there ever was a sign that the DFL might be in trouble, the union-dominated political machines would make sure some extra votes would come out.

NY-26, Reynolds' district is also pretty competitive.  It has a PVI of R+3, basically the opposite of Saxton's NJ-03 which is D+3.

Huh? Not from the numbers I see.

But it's also a district where a local generic Republican would run far ahead of Bush.

Kuhl's NY-29 is also competitive as it has a PVI of R+5, the exact opposite of Shays' CT-04 which is D+5.

See above. From what I understand the Democratic bench in that district also might as well be non-existant.

*Phyllis Kahn is a State Rep. and former college professor from Minneapolis who has been around for over 30 years. She's known for proposing wacky legislation (such as lowering the voting age to 12, and recently is now pushing to cover plastic surgery and cosmetic enhancements under the state sales tax) and for rhetoric on the House floor that might as well've been said by Andrea Dworkin. She was also fined in 2004 for stealing campaign literature off doorsteps from a Republican incumbent in a neighboring district, who lost (and then gave a tearful farewell speech where she screamed about how she'd never run for office ever again because of how she was treated)

[Mr.Phips]

Kelly's old district is a true swing district, it has a PVI of R+1.

True, but based on the demographics (that's definitely one district where you would expect the local GOP to run far ahead of Bush), and the fact that Hall was by far one of the most liberal Democratic challengers last year and you see why it's a shock.

MN-08 could go Republican under the right circumstances.  It only has a PVI of D+4. 

No. Not unless it was a 1994 situation and the DFL put up a really really terrible candidate, say if Phyllis Kahn* moved to Duluth and ran.

The GOP just can't crack Duluth and the Iron Range. And if there ever was a sign that the DFL might be in trouble, the union-dominated political machines would make sure some extra votes would come out.

NY-26, Reynolds' district is also pretty competitive.  It has a PVI of R+3, basically the opposite of Saxton's NJ-03 which is D+3.

Huh? Not from the numbers I see.

But it's also a district where a local generic Republican would run far ahead of Bush.

Kuhl's NY-29 is also competitive as it has a PVI of R+5, the exact opposite of Shays' CT-04 which is D+5.

See above. From what I understand the Democratic bench in that district also might as well be non-existant.

*Phyllis Kahn is a State Rep. and former college professor from Minneapolis who has been around for over 30 years. She's known for proposing wacky legislation (such as lowering the voting age to 12, and recently is now pushing to cover plastic surgery and cosmetic enhancements under the state sales tax) and for rhetoric on the House floor that might as well've been said by Andrea Dworkin. She was also fined in 2004 for stealing campaign literature off doorsteps from a Republican incumbent in a neighboring district, who lost (and then gave a tearful farewell speech where she screamed about how she'd never run for office ever again because of how she was treated)

Eric Massa is probably going to run again in NY-29.  Kuhl actually ran behind Bush in 2004. 

NY-19 is actually a Dem trending district and if you listen to John Hall speak he doesn't come off as being all that liberal, he really is pretty informed.  He is already involved in a lot of local projects.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW, there's a very good chance Phyllis Kahn will be my State Rep. in a year (her district is in the area I'm looking at)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's the NJ map. Color shades range from >50% to >80%, but Camden County was actually 98.27% Democratic. Cumberland and Atlantic Counties voted for Kerry but voted over 60% for Republican congressional candidates; Burlington narrowly voted for both Kerry and Republican congressional candidates. The closest two counties were Somerset (Republican by 4%) and Morris (Republican by 6%).

Ferguson's performance in Hunterdon County was embarassingly bad, and his performance in Somerset County should be down right terrifying for local Republicans.  His strength in suburban Union County was the only thing that saved him -- ironic, because that was Stender's base.

Ten years from now, Somerset County will likely have an all Dem Freeholder board.  Seems inevitable.

[RBH]

West Virginia:



Missouri:



South Dakota:



North Dakota:



North Carolina:



Tennessee:



Utah:



Kansas:



Kentucky:



Illinois:

[Mr.Phips]

West Virginia:



Missouri:



South Dakota:



North Dakota:



North Carolina:



Tennessee:



Utah:



Kansas:



Kentucky:



Illinois:

Its amazing that Ken Lucas could not win KY-04 while winning all of those counties.

[RBH]

Its amazing that Ken Lucas could not win KY-04 while winning all of those counties.

Acreage doesn't vote.

Iowa:

[InsideTheBeltway]

Acreage doesn't vote.

See those three counties right at the northern fringe of KY-4?  That's where most of the population is (Cincy suburbs, like Covington) and Davis won all 3.

That's also how that KS map yields a 2-2 tie.

[Verily]

Here's the NJ map. Color shades range from >50% to >80%, but Camden County was actually 98.27% Democratic. Cumberland and Atlantic Counties voted for Kerry but voted over 60% for Republican congressional candidates; Burlington narrowly voted for both Kerry and Republican congressional candidates. The closest two counties were Somerset (Republican by 4%) and Morris (Republican by 6%).

Ferguson's performance in Hunterdon County was embarassingly bad, and his performance in Somerset County should be down right terrifying for local Republicans.  His strength in suburban Union County was the only thing that saved him -- ironic, because that was Stender's base.

Ten years from now, Somerset County will likely have an all Dem Freeholder board.  Seems inevitable.

Somerset is rapidly transforming from exurbs to suburbs, and with that comes the inevitable Republican-to-Democratic trend.

It's happening in Morris, too, but Morris has more of an established Italian-American Republican machine than Somerset.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

North Dakota:

More reason to hate Medora.

(Medora is a tourist town in the blue county, home of the semi-famous Medora Musical. Anyway my old middle school [which no longer exists] went on a field trip there every year for 2 days in 8th grade. The year I went we were housed in conditions that weren't fit for a prison, and hence "Medora" became kind of a epithet for awhile, [if something sucked really bad it was "worse than Medora"])

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Somerset is rapidly transforming from exurbs to suburbs, and with that comes the inevitable Republican-to-Democratic trend.

It's happening in Morris, too, but Morris has more of an established Italian-American Republican machine than Somerset.
[/quote]

My Italian grandmother lived in Bound Brook until the day she died.  When she did, her house was sold to a Hispanic family.

That about says it all.

[RBH]

Hinchey running unopposed screwed up the map.

And I combined the results for the Rep and Dem candidates with the minor parties that they ran with.

Overall, Democratic ticket candidates won 61%, Republican ticket candidates won 28%, Working Families candidates won 4%, Conservative and Independence Party candidates won 3% each.

[Joe Republic]

[RBH]

Oklahoma:



The only incumbent to lose a county: Frank Lucas lost Osage County to Sue Barton

[Verily]

Here's Nevada. This, by the way, is what a 52.5-47.5 Democratic statewide victory looks like.

[Verily]

Arizona. The Democrats might have won Maricopa and Pinal Counties had they run a candidate in AZ-06. That's a 52-43 Republican victory statewide, including a district the Democrats did not contest (but the Libertarians did). I'm impressed that the Libertarians managed to run a candidate in every district; maybe one of the minor parties is finally learning how a minor party can be successful in US politics.