Democrats lead big in first generic ballot poll for 2008

[Verily]

http://pollingreport.com/cong2008.htm

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Feb. 15-18, 2007. N=840 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.4 (for all registered voters).

"Regardless of how you might plan to vote in your own district, which party would you like to see in control of Congress after the congressional elections in 2008: the Democrats or the Republicans?"  If other/unsure: "Well, which way do you lean -- more toward the Democrats or the Republicans?" Options rotated

All:
Dem: 52%
GOP: 36%
Other (vol.): 4%
Unsure: 7%

GOP:
Dem: 7%
GOP: 89%
Other: 1%
Unsure: 3%

Ind:
Dem: 47%
GOP: 27%
Other: 12%
Unsure: 14%

Dem:
Dem: 96%
GOP: 2%
Other: -
Unsure: 3%



Now, obviously polls mean virtually nothing this far out, and generic ballot mean less. This poll also specifically asks the respondent to ignore local conditions such as popular incumbents. On the other hand, it does show that the people do like what they've seen with the Democrats so far and do not seem immediately willing to "return to the GOP fold", as some have suggested. That snapback may be long in coming.

[bullmoose88]

"Like what they've seen with the Democrats..."

The democrats better hope they haven't peaked after only 2 months.

[Alcon]

They make like what they see so far, but how much have they seen?  The Republicans are in a position to stop their bleeding a bit by attacking the Democrats on their records come 2008, but I still don't see the GOP snapping back.  I think they could even stand the chance of losing a few more seats.

[Adlai Stevenson]

They make like what they see so far, but how much have they seen?  The Republicans are in a position to stop their bleeding a bit by attacking the Democrats on their records come 2008, but I still don't see the GOP snapping back.  I think they could even stand the chance of losing a few more seats.

I agree.  Bush will still be in the White House and I don't think the Republican void of ideas and energy and leadership will have been filled.  The GOP may take down a few vulnerable Democrats - TX-22 and GA-12 spring to mind, but they will also have to defend themselves against the retirement of several Congressman and possibly 2 to 4 Senators. 

[minionofmidas]

Has there been any generic presidential poll?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

They make like what they see so far, but how much have they seen?  The Republicans are in a position to stop their bleeding a bit by attacking the Democrats on their records come 2008, but I still don't see the GOP snapping back.  I think they could even stand the chance of losing a few more seats.

I agree.  Bush will still be in the White House and I don't think the Republican void of ideas and energy and leadership will have been filled.  The GOP may take down a few vulnerable Democrats - TX-22 and GA-12 spring to mind, but they will also have to defend themselves against the retirement of several Congressman and possibly 2 to 4 Senators. 

GA-12 isn't going to fall. GA-03 is far more likely.

[InsideTheBeltway]

They make like what they see so far, but how much have they seen?  The Republicans are in a position to stop their bleeding a bit by attacking the Democrats on their records come 2008, but I still don't see the GOP snapping back.  I think they could even stand the chance of losing a few more seats.

I agree.  Bush will still be in the White House and I don't think the Republican void of ideas and energy and leadership will have been filled.  The GOP may take down a few vulnerable Democrats - TX-22 and GA-12 spring to mind, but they will also have to defend themselves against the retirement of several Congressman and possibly 2 to 4 Senators. 

GA-12 isn't going to fall. GA-03 is far more likely.

I guess you mean GA-08 (they switched the numbers).

Marshall definitely knows he's vulnerable-which could explain the vote against the Democrats' anti-surge resolution last week.

He has also been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, and Republicans would probably be favored to win an open House seat.

GA-12 actually voted very narrowly for Kerry (even after GOP redistricting), so I imagine Barrow should be in somwhat better shape.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, that's what I meant.

Barrow was just hurt greatly horrendously low black turnout in eastern Georgia. In any normal turnout situation, especially in a presidential year, he should be safe.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I agree with Alcon, the Republicans will probably lose a few more seats in 2008, but somehow I see them taking one of the chambers back in 2010.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I agree with Alcon, the Republicans will probably lose a few more seats in 2008, but somehow I see them taking one of the chambers back in 2010.

Not likely. If they lose even more seats in 2008, they need a wave in 2010 to retake the House. 2010 might be a fairly good GOP year if we elect a Dem President, but it's doubtful it'll be a 1994/2006. The new Dem House will probably last at least as long as the old GOP House did.

As for the Senate, the GOP are looking pretty bad in 2008, their best case scenario is probably breaking even. In 2010, the map doesn't benefit them. In 2012, well yeah they'll pick up just thanks to the last two elections in that cycle being so great for us, but can they pick up enough to retake the Senate? Depends on how the next two elections go, but it's possible but not all that likely.

[Verily]

Has there been any generic presidential poll?

There've been a few, usually with splits like 48-45 Dem-GOP.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree with Alcon, the Republicans will probably lose a few more seats in 2008, but somehow I see them taking one of the chambers back in 2010.

Not likely. If they lose even more seats in 2008, they need a wave in 2010 to retake the House. 2010 might be a fairly good GOP year if we elect a Dem President, but it's doubtful it'll be a 1994/2006. The new Dem House will probably last at least as long as the old GOP House did.

As for the Senate, the GOP are looking pretty bad in 2008, their best case scenario is probably breaking even. In 2010, the map doesn't benefit them. In 2012, well yeah they'll pick up just thanks to the last two elections in that cycle being so great for us, but can they pick up enough to retake the Senate? Depends on how the next two elections go, but it's possible but not all that likely.

I meant Marshall would be vulnerable.  Apart from 2008, there are even GOP vulnerabilties in 2010 despite the fact it may be a midterm for a Democratic President.  Ohio and Kentucky could both be potential Democratic pickups.  The Republicans' best hope for Senatorial gains is 2012.  2008 and 2010 are both six years after 2002 and 2004, years in which they did very well.  There are not many opportunities for them until 2012.

[Verily]

"Like what they've seen with the Democrats..."

The democrats better hope they haven't peaked after only 2 months.

Who said that this was a peak? IIRC, it's better than the average generic ballot poll leading up to 2006, but only by two or three points.

[bullmoose88]

"Like what they've seen with the Democrats..."

The democrats better hope they haven't peaked after only 2 months.

Who said that this was a peak? IIRC, it's better than the average generic ballot poll leading up to 2006, but only by two or three points.

Considering the dems have been in power for only 2 months, and have passed a great deal of legislation...its always harder to keep the hits coming...sometimes I wonder if the dems would have been better served to space out some of their legislative winners...rather than to fire away all at once.

I'm sure the dems have other popular initatives to come, healthcare etc, but they set the bar awfully high. The expectations game is hard to win over the long term.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I agree with Alcon, the Republicans will probably lose a few more seats in 2008, but somehow I see them taking one of the chambers back in 2010.

Not likely. If they lose even more seats in 2008, they need a wave in 2010 to retake the House. 2010 might be a fairly good GOP year if we elect a Dem President, but it's doubtful it'll be a 1994/2006. The new Dem House will probably last at least as long as the old GOP House did.

As for the Senate, the GOP are looking pretty bad in 2008, their best case scenario is probably breaking even. In 2010, the map doesn't benefit them. In 2012, well yeah they'll pick up just thanks to the last two elections in that cycle being so great for us, but can they pick up enough to retake the Senate? Depends on how the next two elections go, but it's possible but not all that likely.

There is some truth to your statement.  It is entirely possibly that come the beginning of the 112th Congress in 2011, we could very easily see two Democratic Senators in Oklahoma.  Jim Inhofe, as I've said repeatedly, is vulnerable in 2008, and Tom Coburn may potentially be vulnerable in 2010, but if not then, then in 2016 as he promised his voters that he would not serve more than two terms in the Senate.  Republican Senator Wayne Allard of Colorado followed or is following through with that same commitment, so I'm giving Coburn the benefit of the doubt.  Personally, though, as a Democrat, I actually hope that if the Democrats unseat Jim Inhofe, that Tom Coburn, as much as I detest him, wins re-election in 2010.  I want one and one, not two in the same party.  How weird is that?

[okstate]

Jim Inhofe is not that vulnerable.

I think Coburn will stay in until he decides to quit serving.

Just because Democrat Brad Henry has found success in the state doesn't mean we're going to start electing Democrats to the Senate.