Democrats lead big in first generic ballot poll for 2008

[Adlai Stevenson]

They make like what they see so far, but how much have they seen?  The Republicans are in a position to stop their bleeding a bit by attacking the Democrats on their records come 2008, but I still don't see the GOP snapping back.  I think they could even stand the chance of losing a few more seats.

I agree.  Bush will still be in the White House and I don't think the Republican void of ideas and energy and leadership will have been filled.  The GOP may take down a few vulnerable Democrats - TX-22 and GA-12 spring to mind, but they will also have to defend themselves against the retirement of several Congressman and possibly 2 to 4 Senators. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree with Alcon, the Republicans will probably lose a few more seats in 2008, but somehow I see them taking one of the chambers back in 2010.

Not likely. If they lose even more seats in 2008, they need a wave in 2010 to retake the House. 2010 might be a fairly good GOP year if we elect a Dem President, but it's doubtful it'll be a 1994/2006. The new Dem House will probably last at least as long as the old GOP House did.

As for the Senate, the GOP are looking pretty bad in 2008, their best case scenario is probably breaking even. In 2010, the map doesn't benefit them. In 2012, well yeah they'll pick up just thanks to the last two elections in that cycle being so great for us, but can they pick up enough to retake the Senate? Depends on how the next two elections go, but it's possible but not all that likely.

I meant Marshall would be vulnerable.  Apart from 2008, there are even GOP vulnerabilties in 2010 despite the fact it may be a midterm for a Democratic President.  Ohio and Kentucky could both be potential Democratic pickups.  The Republicans' best hope for Senatorial gains is 2012.  2008 and 2010 are both six years after 2002 and 2004, years in which they did very well.  There are not many opportunities for them until 2012.