Who long until something like this Could Reasonable Happen:

[DownWithTheLeft]

I look at some past maps and think it is amazing that states like VT use to be the strongest Republican, how long til a map like this could appear:

Democrats are now libertarians
Republicans are socially conservative populists

[True Democrat]

I didn't know that Kentucky and Tennessee were libertarian states.

[Colin]

Also didn't know that Vermont, New Hampshire, Washington, Maine, and Delaware were socially conservative populist states.

[True Democrat]

Generic Libertarian vs. Generic Populist would probably look something like this:



I could be totally wrong.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Washington would be even more strongly Democratic area if this was to happen, not Republican...

[Colin]

This was how I envisioned it.



Libertarian Democrats, Populist Republicans

It would give the Republicans a huge boost in support while they only really lose parts of the mountain west. Really not a horrible scenario for the Republicans.

[Reignman]

red - libertarian
blue - populist

[True Democrat]

red - libertarian
blue - populist

Arizona is definitely more libertarian than New Mexico.

[Reignman]

red - libertarian
blue - populist

Arizona is definitely more libertarian than New Mexico.

I always thought it was more populist because of Arizona has more Hispanics. Does New Mexico have more?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Other than NoVa, what in Virginia would become Dem if they swung more libertarian?  It may be fast-growing, but it's not enough to make it solid, IMO.

I always thought it was more populist because of Arizona has more Hispanics. Does New Mexico have more?

Arizona is 27% Hispanic, while New Mexico is 42%.  NM is 11% Indian; AZ is 6%.  New Mexico is poorer, less white, and while it may not be socially far-right, it's definitely not libertarian.

The problem with this scenario is that, while states like MT and WY might have libertarian underpinnings, they aren't socially liberal.  They're just "hands off, unless you want to give us money."  Which is hard to translate into an election like this...

[Verily]

Libertarianism (D) v. Populism (R):



Arizona is the most libertarian state in the country. It also has strong social-conservative factions, but there's a reason it's the only state with a serious Libertarian Party. New Hampshire is the only comparable state.

With swing states:

[True Democrat]

Libertarianism (D) v. Populism (R):



Arizona is the most libertarian state in the country. It also has strong social-conservative factions, but there's a reason it's the only state with a serious Libertarian Party. New Hampshire is the only comparable state.

With swing states:

I'd be careful with Minnesota.  Northern Minnesota can be pretty populist, especially economically.  The same goes with Illinois (which I agree is a swing state).  New York should definitly be a swing state in my opinion.  There are a lot of economic liberal in the cities and even quite a few upstate.  New Mexico is one of the most populist states there is.  I would look to Gary Johnson's failed attempt to stop the war on drugs for this.