New Jersey 2008

[DownWithTheLeft]

Let me thirdly remind you that the New Jersey NYC commuters also mostly dislike Giuliani for the commuter tax reform during his mayoralty. he stands no chance in New York, and almost certainly no chance in New Jersey. You are the one being hackish.

That may be the case up where you are but in the heavy commuter areas in Somerset/Morris counties he couldn't be more popular.

And Bush won Somerset and Morris in 2004. A lot of good it did him in winning New Jersey.

He didn't win by amazing margins, if Guiliani could pull in 70%+ of the vote in those counties he would win the state

[Smash255]

NEW JERSEY -
Clinton (D) 52%
Giuliani (R) 47%

CONNECTICUT -
Clinton (D) 53%
Giuliani (R) 45%

Its hard to see Giuliani winning either New Jersey or Connecticut, however.  Also for the measure:

NEW YORK -
Clinton (D) 56%
Giuliani (R) 42%

This is being generous to Giuliani.

Your making the democrat lead in each of the three states because you are a democrat. I don`t doubt that Giuliani might loose Connecticut because it is heavily democratic. But I think that New Jersey might swing republican. It is always one of the closer states along the east coast, that and New Hampshire.

I think that Giuliani might have a chance in New York and I will tell you why. My history teacher told me that most of New York is conservative but what gives it to the democrats by such a big margin is that New York City is liberal. But, I believe that Giuliani might have an advantage in New York because he was mayor of New York City and the rest of New York is conservative.

Rural upstate NY conservative??  Yes, but thats about it...

Long Island is conservative??  Wow, you must have fooled me, where the hell have I been living for just about the last 25 years?

Westchester is conservative??  Albany???  Buffalo?

[bullmoose88]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

Guiliani would probably win those counties.  He best shot at winning is winning Bergen and capturing 40% in Essex or Hudson and breaking 60 in Sussex

[Jaggerjack]

NEW JERSEY -
Clinton (D) 52%
Giuliani (R) 47%

CONNECTICUT -
Clinton (D) 53%
Giuliani (R) 45%

Its hard to see Giuliani winning either New Jersey or Connecticut, however.  Also for the measure:

NEW YORK -
Clinton (D) 56%
Giuliani (R) 42%

This is being generous to Giuliani.

Your making the democrat lead in each of the three states because you are a democrat. I don`t doubt that Giuliani might loose Connecticut because it is heavily democratic. But I think that New Jersey might swing republican. It is always one of the closer states along the east coast, that and New Hampshire.

I think that Giuliani might have a chance in New York and I will tell you why. My history teacher told me that most of New York is conservative but what gives it to the democrats by such a big margin is that New York City is liberal. But, I believe that Giuliani might have an advantage in New York because he was mayor of New York City and the rest of New York is conservative.

What the hell happened to Upstate's biggest cities? Did someone nuke them? ...No.

[bullmoose88]

NEW JERSEY -
Clinton (D) 52%
Giuliani (R) 47%

CONNECTICUT -
Clinton (D) 53%
Giuliani (R) 45%

Its hard to see Giuliani winning either New Jersey or Connecticut, however.  Also for the measure:

NEW YORK -
Clinton (D) 56%
Giuliani (R) 42%

This is being generous to Giuliani.

Your making the democrat lead in each of the three states because you are a democrat. I don`t doubt that Giuliani might loose Connecticut because it is heavily democratic. But I think that New Jersey might swing republican. It is always one of the closer states along the east coast, that and New Hampshire.

I think that Giuliani might have a chance in New York and I will tell you why. My history teacher told me that most of New York is conservative but what gives it to the democrats by such a big margin is that New York City is liberal. But, I believe that Giuliani might have an advantage in New York because he was mayor of New York City and the rest of New York is conservative.

What the hell happened to Upstate's biggest cities? Did someone nuke them? ...No.

Cities in Upstate New York are losing population...Syracuse, I think Buffalo...not sure about albany...

[Jaggerjack]

The point is, trying to say that only NYC is liberal out of all NY state is simply laughable. Gporter's made himself look like an ignorant moron in front of everybody.

[Smash255]

The point is, trying to say that only NYC is liberal out of all NY state is simply laughable. Gporter's made himself look like an ignorant moron in front of everybody.

that wouldn't be the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th time and so on...

[Kevin]

The point is, trying to say that only NYC is liberal out of all NY state is simply laughable. Gporter's made himself look like an ignorant moron in front of everybody.

He is new and just learning, He will wise up after a while of being on the forum.

[Alcon]

The point is, trying to say that only NYC is liberal out of all NY state is simply laughable. Gporter's made himself look like an ignorant moron in front of everybody.

Come on...lay off a little.

[Smash255]

The point is, trying to say that only NYC is liberal out of all NY state is simply laughable. Gporter's made himself look like an ignorant moron in front of everybody.

Come on...lay off a little.

I would be willing to cut him some slack if he actually tried to debate the issue (no matter how wrong he may have been) if he didn't dismiss those who disagreed as oh your just a Democrat

[Verily]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

Guiliani would probably win those counties.  He best shot at winning is winning Bergen and capturing 40% in Essex or Hudson and breaking 60 in Sussex

But he wouldn't. Giuliani would win Bergen and Somerset, but he'd lose Burlington and maybe even Ocean and all of South Jersey while only running 1% or so ahead of Bush 2004 in North Jersey. Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, these are not counties that will vote as strongly for Giuliani's weird liberal-authoritarian social policies as they did for Bush, and nor will Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May. He'd do best in the wealthy areas, but strength in Somerset, Morris and Bergen can't make up for losses elsewhere.

[Jaggerjack]

The point is, trying to say that only NYC is liberal out of all NY state is simply laughable. Gporter's made himself look like an ignorant moron in front of everybody.

Come on...lay off a little.

I would be willing to cut him some slack if he actually tried to debate the issue (no matter how wrong he may have been) if he didn't dismiss those who disagreed as oh your just a Democrat

I'm inclined to agree.

[Alcon]

I didn't see that, sorry.  I was just thinking that it was a little extreme of a response to a moderately ignorant comment.  Sorry again.

[Conan]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

Guiliani would probably win those counties.  He best shot at winning is winning Bergen and capturing 40% in Essex or Hudson and breaking 60 in Sussex

But he wouldn't. Giuliani would win Bergen and Somerset, but he'd lose Burlington and maybe even Ocean and all of South Jersey while only running 1% or so ahead of Bush 2004 in North Jersey. Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, these are not counties that will vote as strongly for Giuliani's weird liberal-authoritarian social policies as they did for Bush, and nor will Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May. He'd do best in the wealthy areas, but strength in Somerset, Morris and Bergen can't make up for losses elsewhere.

Every republican wins Sussex with 64%+. Dems at least get 34%. Kean won it last year by the same margin or around what Bush won. People up here don't vote ideology, they vote party.

[Mr.Phips]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

Guiliani would probably win those counties.  He best shot at winning is winning Bergen and capturing 40% in Essex or Hudson and breaking 60 in Sussex

But he wouldn't. Giuliani would win Bergen and Somerset, but he'd lose Burlington and maybe even Ocean and all of South Jersey while only running 1% or so ahead of Bush 2004 in North Jersey. Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, these are not counties that will vote as strongly for Giuliani's weird liberal-authoritarian social policies as they did for Bush, and nor will Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May. He'd do best in the wealthy areas, but strength in Somerset, Morris and Bergen can't make up for losses elsewhere.

Would he likely lose LoBiondo's district?

[Smash255]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

Guiliani would probably win those counties.  He best shot at winning is winning Bergen and capturing 40% in Essex or Hudson and breaking 60 in Sussex

But he wouldn't. Giuliani would win Bergen and Somerset, but he'd lose Burlington and maybe even Ocean and all of South Jersey while only running 1% or so ahead of Bush 2004 in North Jersey. Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, these are not counties that will vote as strongly for Giuliani's weird liberal-authoritarian social policies as they did for Bush, and nor will Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May. He'd do best in the wealthy areas, but strength in Somerset, Morris and Bergen can't make up for losses elsewhere.

Yes, Giuliani would do very well in wealthy areas, but he will also do just as well as Bush in the strongly Republican areas.  Hunterdon is nearly as wealthy as Somerset and Morris (and most of Bergen), and will vote similarly.  Sussex and Warren care about nothing but the (R) next to a candidates name, and the shore is not going to go back to Democrats for a while.  All of New Jersey is reasonably wealthy, as well as libertarian, not to mention the state's undeniable general approval of Giuliani.  He would do much better than Bush throughout the state.  Blah, blah, blah...what I'm basically saying is; Giuliani would make significant gains in North/Central Jersey and stay about the same as Bush in South Jersey.  As seen by Giuliani's southern numbers and his high recognition nationwide, social conservatives don't seem to care about Giuliani's social liberalism.

problem Rudy would run into and why I don't think he would really improve on Bush's 04 numbers in Jersey is IRAQ.  It looks like its going to be a big issue in 08 and he is clearly are the wrong side of the state on Iraq.

[Verily]

Blah, blah, blah...what I'm basically saying is; Giuliani would make significant gains in North/Central Jersey and stay about the same as Bush in South Jersey.  As seen by Giuliani's southern numbers and his high recognition nationwide, social conservatives don't seem to care about Giuliani's social liberalism.

It's funny that you mention Giuliani's numbers in the South; that's the area where McCain ties or even leads Giuliani in many states. Moreover, while Giuliani has high name recognition, he has very low issues recognition (there have been various polls to this effect).

I would certainly not consider most of New Jersey libertarian. Bergen, Somerset, Morris, upper Passaic, Monmouth, these are libertarian areas. Warren, Sussex, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May, these are populist areas.

[Gustaf]

I think Guliani could make things interesting in New Jersey, though it still seems a little too Democratic to go GOP. Nonetheless, both Kerry and Menendez won by about the same margin, IIRC - about 6%. That's not impossible to make up by being a Northeastern moderate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not impossible to make up by being a Northeastern moderate.

Like Tom Kean, Jr.?

The war would do Giuliani in. While he'd do better than Bush 2000 no doubt, I wouldn't be surprised if he did worse than Bush 2004 with the 9/11 bounce worn off.

[Kevin]

Also on a diffrent note which counties would a Republican Presidental canidate have to flip and how well would a Republican Presidental canidate have to do in the soildly Republican parts of the state in order to win it.

[bullmoose88]

I think Giuliani could so some major damage in Passaic and Bergen Counties, and make Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset more Republican...but I think the odds are against him getting the additional 5% or so needed to actually win the state. But if any of the Republicans can win NJ, its Giuliani...but I say the odds are 2 to 1 against.

[Kevin]

I think Giuliani could so some major damage in Passaic and Bergen Counties, and make Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset more Republican...but I think the odds are against him getting the additional 5% or so needed to actually win the state. But if any of the Republicans can win NJ, its Giuliani...but I say the odds are 2 to 1 against.

A moderate Republican can win NJ, I was suprised at how well a medicore conservative Republican did so well here in 2004, and the reason Kean didn't win 2006 was that year presented odds that were soo dead set aginst a Republican combined with the fact that he wasn't a strong canidate, But still he was close to victory then Foleygate broke.

[bullmoose88]

I think Giuliani could so some major damage in Passaic and Bergen Counties, and make Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset more Republican...but I think the odds are against him getting the additional 5% or so needed to actually win the state. But if any of the Republicans can win NJ, its Giuliani...but I say the odds are 2 to 1 against.

A moderate Republican can win NJ, I was suprised at how well a medicore conservative Republican did so well here in 2004, and the reason Kean didn't win 2006 was that year presented odds that were soo dead set aginst a Republican combined with the fact that he wasn't a strong canidate, But still he was close to victory then Foleygate broke.

Theroetically? Maybe...Unfortunately, there seems to be substantial partisan support for both parties, regardless of the candidate, and the Dems have the best of it.

South Jersey isn't the sort of area thats, initially going to lean to Giuliani...while Giuliani is going to have a tough task breaking down that dem advantage in formerly semi competitive areas up in the north(east)

[Kevin]

I think Giuliani could so some major damage in Passaic and Bergen Counties, and make Morris, Hunterdon, and Somerset more Republican...but I think the odds are against him getting the additional 5% or so needed to actually win the state. But if any of the Republicans can win NJ, its Giuliani...but I say the odds are 2 to 1 against.

A moderate Republican can win NJ, I was suprised at how well a medicore conservative Republican did so well here in 2004, and the reason Kean didn't win 2006 was that year presented odds that were soo dead set aginst a Republican combined with the fact that he wasn't a strong canidate, But still he was close to victory then Foleygate broke.

Theroetically? Maybe...Unfortunately, there seems to be substantial partisan support for both parties, regardless of the candidate, and the Dems have the best of it.

South Jersey isn't the sort of area thats, initially going to lean to Giuliani...while Giuliani is going to have a tough task breaking down that dem advantage in formerly semi competitive areas up in the north(east)

However despite these odds New Jersey will most likely be up for grabs come 08, Also if Ohio leans Democratic going into 08, Rudy will need to take New Jersey in order to win.