New Jersey 2008

[AkSaber]

I think what Smash said about Jersey is true. The 9/11 bounce that happened on 04 is gone. Jersey won't be a battleground in 08.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think what Smash said about Jersey is true. The 9/11 bounce that happened on 04 is gone. Jersey won't be a battleground in 08.

That's what I don't get. Even giving Dole all Perot's vote in 96, both 1996 and 2000 were thumping wins. Kerry even with the 9/11 bump, and high turnout still beat Bush by 7. Giuliani will make things tight, but I certainly don't consider it a battleground yet.

[Smash255]

I think what Smash said about Jersey is true. The 9/11 bounce that happened on 04 is gone. Jersey won't be a battleground in 08.

That's what I don't get. Even giving Dole all Perot's vote in 96, both 1996 and 2000 were thumping wins. Kerry even with the 9/11 bump, and high turnout still beat Bush by 7. Giuliani will make things tight, but I certainly don't consider it a battleground yet.

Rudy probably keeps it close to 04 levels (about 9 points more Democratic than nationally).    The 9/11 bounce not being there anymore makes the state more Democratic, Rudy makes up for that, however his views on Iraq diminish the bump he gets from being Rudy and his social views.

[minionofmidas]

Mr Moderate

The times Menendez started pulling away were also around the same time that Corzine increased on his lead in 05, same with Kerry in 04 (remember the close polls) and Gore in 2000.  the state has had a long history of polling more Republican than it has actually voted and the polls have generally started to turn around and closer to the final result in the last couple weeks.  Kean didn't lose due to Foley, it was just the earlier polls showed things better for the GOp than it actually was, it happens almost every year.

Yeah, New Jersey is like Germany in polling. Simply put, its right wing upper middle class minority is just very politicised and never undecided in polls no matter how far out of election day, leading to polls out of election season, especially ones that try to wean out weak leaners, to be more of an exercise in hilarity than anything else.

[Verily]

Again, there was no 9/11 bounce.  I'll go into greater detail if necessary, but I've already cited my case numerous times before.  Just thought I'd remind everyone...

It was very evident. It's the "security suburbs"; they voted for Gore in 2000 on gun control and Bush in 2004 on terrorism. If the Democrats are seen as better able to handle terrorism than the Republicans in 2008 (which seems likely, given the tar of Bush), they'll vote for the Democratic candidate. (Witness Ocean County's massive swing 2000-2004; demographic changes were minimal).

[Conan]

Let's get some things straight about New Jersey, past and present.

(1) The New Jersey Democratic Party is not weak.  The only thing that matters in New Jersey is money, and Democrats are flush with it.  And unlike their feuding days of the 1990s, Democrats are remarkably united despite there being a different political boss for North and South Jersey.

The unity between the governors office and the legislature among dems isnt that strong. As for the whole state, the democratic party is very strong.

(2) No New Jersey Republican is going to lose friggin' OCEAN County any time soon.  It is easily the most Republican shore county -- more so than Monmouth, Atlantic, and even Cape May.

I don't know if you're saying Atlantic is a GOP county but if you are, no it is not.

(3) Mark Foley was a MAJOR reason why Tom Kean Jr. lost -- even Wally Edge of PoliticsNJ backs me up on this point.  Dispute it if you will, but Kean's lead instantly evaporated the moment the Foley scandal broke.  He very well may have lost anyway, but Foley was KEY in Kean's numbers ending as badly as Forrester's.

That is completely ridiculous. Absolutely funny and unfounded. HAHAH

(4) Giuliani wouldn't get 40 in Hudson and certainly not in Newark-dominated Essex.  But I'd expect him to easily carry Bergen and to strongly compete in Middlesex, Passaic, and Mercer, which is why he'd carry the state.  He'd probably run strong enough to carry Burlington, too -- it's really not that Democratic a county.

Depends who he runs against. It's safe to say however, he won't get Mercer or Middlesex.

(5) It is absolutely mindblowing that someone could think that Bush would be a stronger candidate than Giuliani in New Jersey.  My f-ing God, do you not understand the concept of the favorite son?  Commuters love the guy -- and why shouldn't they?

Giuliani isn't the same man he used to be. His flip flopping and support of the Iraq war would assure he will not likely win in NJ against Obama, Hillary, or Edwards.

Here are some match ups:

Giuliani: 46
Clinton: 54

Giuliani: 48
Obama: 52

Giuliani: 47
Edwards: 53

[Smash255]

Again, there was no 9/11 bounce.  I'll go into greater detail if necessary, but I've already cited my case numerous times before.  Just thought I'd remind everyone...

Much of New Jersey, Long Island, Rockland, and CT, especially SW CT, what do they all have in common???  Their was without a doubt a 9/11 bounce in NJ.

[Conan]

Again, there was no 9/11 bounce.  I'll go into greater detail if necessary, but I've already cited my case numerous times before.  Just thought I'd remind everyone...

Much of New Jersey, Long Island, Rockland, and CT, especially SW CT, what do they all have in common???  Their was without a doubt a 9/11 bounce in NJ.

Although it is true Bush got a 9/11 bounce, he should have been trashed over it. That's what's so troubling.

[TeePee4Prez]

The only reason NJ was as close as it was in 04 was due to the Bush 9/11 bounce that he received in much of suburban NYC.  A bounce which is gone for the GOP.

How Bush did in 04 is basically the best a Republican can do in NJ.  Rudy might make it interesting, but he wouldn't win, no other Republican would have a shot in hell.

No, wrong, sorry.  We disproved that in another thread already.  This "9/11 bounce" liberals use to justify New Jersey's swing is negligable.  Stop trying to use it.  I'll go over it again if I have to, but I'd rather not.

Then link to your rebuttal.

I've seen other such attempted rebuttals before, but all of them ignore that Bush only made massive gains in the NYC metro. He made no gains in suburban Philly or Baltimore, just for two examples.

Hate to rain on you a little, but Bush did in fact gain in Bucks County, PA and all of Philly's New Jersey suburbs, albeit not as much as Ocean County, NJ or Rockland, NY.  I think 9/11 had an effect on them considering they are closer to NYC, but Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware shifted Dem with Chester, PA coming on quite strong.  I could very well see Chester going for a Democratic Pres for the first time since LBJ.