Estonian Elections March 4

[Bono]

Current opinion polls

[Bono]

Current government is formed by Keskerakond, Reformierakond and Rahvaliit.
K are social-liberal. R are free market liberal. EER are greens--who according to wikipedia happen to be economically conservative. Res Publica is conservative.  Sots.dem are obviously social democrats. Rahvaliit are agrarian.

[freek]

And "ei oska öelda"? Undecided?

[Bono]

And "ei oska öelda"? Undecided?

Probably, but since I don't speak Estonian, we'll have to remain uncertain.

[Verily]

That poll would be a disaster for Rahvaliit, which won 13% last election.

2003
Centre Party: 25.4%, 28 seats --- Keskerakond
Union for the Republic: 24.6%, 28 seats --- Res Publica (now combined with Isamaaliit)
Reform Party: 17.7%, 19 seats --- Reformierakond
People's Union: 13.0%, 13 seats --- Rahvaliit
Pro Patria Union: 7.3%, 7 seats --- Isamaaliit (now combined with Res Publica)
Moderate People's Party: 7.0%, 6 seats --- Rahvaerakond Mõõdukad

EER did not contest the last election, and the Social Democrats were irrelevant, pulling only 0.42%.

[freek]

Preliminary results, (654 out of 657 polling stations)

Government:

Reformierakond (RE), Reform, liberal 27.7% (+10.0%) 31 seats (+12)
Keskerakond (K), Centre Party, liberal 26.2% (+0.8%) 29 seats (+1)
Rahvaliit (ERL), Estionian People's Union, agrarian 6.2% (-5.8%) 6 seats (-7)

Opposition:

Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL), Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, conservative 17.8% (-14.1%) 19 seats (-16)
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (SDE), Social Democratic Party, social-dem 10.6% (+3.6%) 10 seats (+4)
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (EER), Estonian Green Party, green 7.1% 6 seats

[Bono]

Hm, the polls blow up on the social-demos, but Reformierakond kicked major ass. W00t, 12 news seats, and now leading!

[Verily]

Looks like Reform got most of the benefit of the collapse of Res Publica-Pro Patria; that's not surprising, given that it's the most conservative of the governing parties. It's not entirely clear what the next government will be, though; will the coalition continue? (If so, will the Prime Minister change to reflect Reform's new status as the largest party?)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Numerically possible combos:

2 party government:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Keskerakond (K), Centre Party,29 seats

3 party government:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL), Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, 19 seats
any smaller party

Keskerakond (K), Centre Party, 29 seats
Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL), Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, 19 seats
any smaller party

4 party governments:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (SDE), Social Democratic Party, 10 seats
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (EER), Estonian Green Party, 6 seats
Rahvaliit (ERL), Estionian People's Union, 6 seats

Keskerakond (K), Centre Party, 29 seats
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (SDE), Social Democratic Party, 10 seats
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (EER), Estonian Green Party, 6 seats
Rahvaliit (ERL), Estionian People's Union, 6 seats

Any government is going to have to have one of these five combinations plus any other parties that may be included for other reasons.

[Verily]

Numerically possible combos:

2 party government:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Keskerakond (K), Centre Party,29 seats

3 party government:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL), Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, 19 seats
any smaller party

Keskerakond (K), Centre Party, 29 seats
Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit (IRL), Pro Patria and Res Publica Union, 19 seats
any smaller party

4 party governments:
Reformierakond (RE), Reform, 31 seats
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (SDE), Social Democratic Party, 10 seats
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (EER), Estonian Green Party, 6 seats
Rahvaliit (ERL), Estionian People's Union, 6 seats

Keskerakond (K), Centre Party, 29 seats
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (SDE), Social Democratic Party, 10 seats
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised (EER), Estonian Green Party, 6 seats
Rahvaliit (ERL), Estionian People's Union, 6 seats

Any government is going to have to have one of these five combinations plus any other parties that may be included for other reasons.

The only ones of those I can see happening are RE-K or K-SDE-EER-ERL. No one will want to form a coalition with the losing party (IRL), and none of the smaller parties would support a government with IRL in it anyway except the slight possibility of the Greens. (An IRL-containing government would have to be RE-IRL, but that's only a minority.)

[kireev]

The full results are already on "Electoral Geogrpahy. "http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/e/estonia/2007-legislative-election-estonia.html
More to come.
Looks like the Center Party won most of the "Russian" vote - it received 55% in the most Russian North East and did well in Talliinn. However, most Russian still cannot receive citizenship and so cannot vote.

[Hash]

Thanks! Great. That was fast!

[Verily]

IRL didn't win a single province? Ouch...

[Hash]

Yeah, a quick rise and fall for Res Publica...

[kireev]

Well, I guess the Reform party overshadowed Res Publica on the right field.

Yeah, a quick rise and fall for Res Publica...

[Bono]

I'm slightly at a loss as to how this came abut, but apparently a government will be formed by the Reform Party, ResPublica and the Social Democrats(!).

www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/04/05/europe/EU-POL-Estonia-Government.php

Estonia's new center-right government sworn in
The Associated Press
Published: April 5, 2007

TALLINN, Estonia: Estonia's new center-right government led by Prime Minister Andrus Ansip was sworn in Thursday in the nation's parliament, officials said.

On Wednesday, lawmakers voted in favor of allowing the coalition to form a new government and President Toomas Hendrik Ilves later approved it.

The government will consist of Ansip's center-right Reform Party, the conservative IRL union and the centrist Social Democrats.

The three parties plan to continue market-friendly policies in the country of 1.3 million, including reducing the flat tax from 22 percent to 18 percent by 2011.

The coalition pledged to boost Estonia's birth rate by giving parents financial incentives. The Baltic state's population has been shrinking since it gained independence in 1991.

The government partners also pledged to improve relations with neighboring Russia, which have been badly strained in recent weeks over plans to relocate a World War II memorial in downtown Tallinn that honors Soviet soldiers.

High-tech Estonia has one of the European Union's fastest-growing economies, and some economists credit the flat tax, which means everyone pays the same tax rate as opposed to the progressive rate that most European countries use.

Under the coalition deal signed earlier this week, Urmas Paet is set to continue as foreign minister and Rein Lang as justice minister. Both are members of the Reform Party.

Ivari Padar, chairman of the Social Democrats, will become finance minister and former Prime Minister Juhan Parts, an IRL union member, becomes economy minister.