Things Get Nuttier in 2020

[JulioMadrid]

Good on Edelen for attacking the hypocrisy there, although I don't remember if Christie was a part of the Benghazi Brigade. Hopefully there's no blowback for Edelen. He seemed to phrase the attack in a way that avoided scrutiny.

He wasn't. That's why I like Christie. He doesn't seem to be an hypocrite in RL.
If Edelen picks someone I don't like, I might support Christie (because this isn't real life, you know).

[Governor Maxwell]

Edelen VP pick a Fiesta!



Adam Edelen picks Congressman Joaquin Castro for VP, is this a good pick?

Joaquin Castro Favorables:
Favorable: 15%
Unfavorable: 12%
Who?: 73%

From out of left field, Adam Edelen decides not to go from the right of the Democratic party (Matheson, Barrow) or the left (Murray, Kind, Romanoff), and has, instead, decided to pick Joaquin Castro, a little known congressman from Texas, to be his Vice Presidential pick. He is brothers of former Mayor Julian Castro, who ran unsuccessfully against Rick Perry back in 2014, thus ending his career. Joaquin has been gaining rank among the Democratic party, with some insiders talking about him becoming head of the DNC in the near future. Instead, Senator Edelen has decided to add him to the ticket. While Castro is really unknown, it's a positive because he can get people to get to know him.

Christie: Edelen matches lack of experience... with lack of experience



"A Senator for almost, not quite, six years, is now going to pick a member of the House of Representatives with no prior experience to be his VP. How fitting."

Polls: Edelen up a tad, after a downward trend, but Christie still ahead

National Polls:
President Chris Christie: 49%
Senator Adam Edelen: 46%
Undecided: 5%

Toss-Ups Map



Senator Adam Edelen (D-KY)/Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) - 154
President Chris Christie (R-NJ)/Vice President Brian Sandoval (R-NV) - 137

No Toss-Ups Map



President Chris Christie (R-NJ)/Vice President Brian Sandoval (R-NV) - 279
Senator Adam Edelen (D-KY)/Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) - 259

With the narrow lead Christie has and the strength he has in a lot of swing states, he manages to hold a small electoral lead over Edelen.  However, a lot of these states, conservative states, have been frustrated by the way he's handled a lot of situations as President, and thus make look favorably on a conservative Democrat. If Edelen can manage to hold his losses in some liberal states (I.E. Christie's nearly 10 point lead in New Hampshire) to a minimum and pick up all the typically conservative states that he is very close to Christie in, than there is a possibility he could pull it out in the end.

Democratic Convention held in Memphis, Tennessee!



Republican Convention to be held in Minneapolis, Minnesota



Analysts confused, "THEY'RE FLIPPING ROLES"



"Looking at these maps you have to wonder: has the momentum shifted? Democrats are gaining momentum in the South, but Christie has managed to push momentum for the Republicans in New England and the Rust Belt. Things seem to be changing significantly."

David Gregory on Meet the Press was dumbfounded by the first true National Polls, saying that he doesn't see how this is reminiscent of recent politics. Looking at toss-up Kentucky and Tennessee seemed to make the news commentator's head explode. He asked his guest, former Obama advisor David Axelrod, whether this was the way things are going to look in the next few years. Axelrod doubted, but for a second you could see Axelrod feel the changing vibe. Maybe it's just the southern democratic ticket and the yankee republican ticket, but there may be something else going on. It's all too early to tell...

Next Up: Democratic Convention! Get excited folks!

[David St. Hubbins II]

Is Jim Matheson running for reelection as Governor of Utah? He could technically have filed to run not long after dropping out of the presidential race. (And as someone who worked on one of his campaigns, it's great to see him get elected statewide, even if it's only in an Atlas Forum universe...)

Keep up the great work!

[Governor Maxwell]

Is Jim Matheson running for reelection as Governor of Utah? He could technically have filed to run not long after dropping out of the presidential race. (And as someone who worked on one of his campaigns, it's great to see him get elected statewide, even if it's only in an Atlas Forum universe...)

Keep up the great work!

Yes he is, and while he has a 62% Approval, he only holds a 10 point lead over the Republican, who is relatively unknown. I will do Gubernatorial races and Senate races for 2020 pretty soon.

[JulioMadrid]

The map's brutal. Many, many toss-ups. Not seen sincd 1976 I don't like the pick, BTW. Not bad, but I belive a Senator or Governor would have been better.

[Governor Maxwell]

Democratic National Convention

Joaquin Castro star of the shoe



"We need to help the poor, not shackle the poor. Wealth inequality has only gotten worse under President Christie and his conservative agenda and its time to stop and think about where we are heading as a nation."

While Presidenial Candidate Adam Edelen's speech was generally considered uninspiring, his Vice Presidential candidate, Joaquin Castro, proved himself well by speaking at the DNC. He gave a speech like none other and he riled up the audiences at the DNC enough to get a standing ovation. Other speeches that made people excited included Howard Dean, Barack Obama, Joe Sestak, Brian Schweitzer, and Maria Cantwell.



"Let's put America back on the track that we've put it on, and Christie almost certainly seems waiting to derail."



"It's time for the people to stand up to this administration once and for all. We are tired of the pitiful fights, the constant stand-offs, and the drama that comes with Chris Christie. It's time we moved forward again and not backward."



"Let's look at this Presidents record... or maybe not. Let's look at his foreign policy... or maybe not. You see a pattern here, don't you?"



"There is nothing more I can say other than I believe in Adam Edelen. He is a man of a kind heart, who tries his best, and gets things done. Christie is a belligerent man who thrusts his weight around and causes conflict. The decision is clear."



"We need to bring these guys down to size. They don't know what they're doing out there!"

Edelen campaign ahead for the first time in a long time

The media noted that the DNC, besides a largely mediocre consensus on Senator Edelen's speech, as a very good one, and it pushed Edelen into the lead for the first time in the campaign since the times when Christie was in horrible shape approval wise back in November of 2018.

Post-DNC Presidential Poll:
Senator Adam Edelen: 48%
President Chris Christie: 47%
Undecided: 5%

Favorables/Approvals:

President Chris Christie:
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 45%
Undecided: 6%

Vice President Brian Sandoval:
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 34%
Undecided: 15%

Senator Adam Edelen:
Favorable: 49%
Unfavorable: 40%
Undecided: 11%

Congressman Joaquin Castro:
Favorable: 40%
Unfavorable: 27%
Undecided: 33%

But wait... there's more

President Chris Christie announces support of marijuana legalization



"Let me be candid, I've had a change of heart here. My Vice President pulled a Biden and kind of leaked what I was going to do, but like my Vice President, I too, will endorse marijuana legalization and push for it in states that are currently voting on it. I believe the War on Drugs has failed in a big way and believe its time for real change on this issue. Not to say I'll speak on legalizing heroin tomorrow, but I believe we need to phase away from this kind of spending because we are closing in on a surplus for the first time since the Clinton era, and I think this would do it."

How do you feel about legalizing marijuana?
Support: 60%
Against: 34%
Undecided: 6%

States voting on it this year: Arkansas, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Montana

After a successful DNC, the President needed a strategy to get out of this complete Democratic news cycle, so he pushed, what his Vice President already pushed: marijuana legalization. In spite of massive support, Democrats have been rather hesitant to endorse it, while a lot of Republicans have decided to take a mantle on this issue. In fact, the Liberty caucus had been, for a while, petitioning President Christie to do something about it. Governor Justin Amash in Michigan has announced he is in favor of the state referendum to legalize marijuana.  Christie joins this bandwagon where Edelen and Castro have remained particularly silent.

Coming Up: Republican convention, More Turkey?, and the Debates, the wonderful Debates!

[Emperor Charles V]

Great decision Christie! Go Republicans for Legalization

[JulioMadrid]

Great decision Christie! Go Republicans for Legalization

[Emperor SJoyce]

So we could have a final map like:



This is becoming an awesome timeline.

[Governor Maxwell]

Meanwhile, in other 2020 Elections:

Senate Elections in 2020

Alaska:
Senator Mark Begich has decided to retire after two terms as the Senator of Alaska. With that, goes the Senate seat for the Democrats. Congressman Ethan Berkowitz, who finally beat Congressman Don Young in 2018 by 100 votes, is holding Governor Mead Treadwell fairly close by Alaska standards, but nevertheless, it looks like an easy win for Mead Treadwell.

Alaska Senate Poll:
Governor Mead Treadwell: 52%
Congressman Ethan Berkowitz: 41%
Undecided: 7%

Likely Republican Pick-Up!

Arkansas:
Senator Mark Darr was an extremely unpopular after several corruption scandals came up and out during his term, and was defeated fairly easily in a primary challenge by Congressman Tom Cotton, who is in a tight race against Lieutenant Governor Warwick Sabin, who has managed to impress many with his fundraising ability.

Arkansas Senate Primary:
Congressman Tom Cotton: 60%
Incumbent Senator Mark Darr: 34%
Others: 6%

Arkansas Senate Poll:
Congressman Tom Cotton: 48%
Lieutenant Governor Warwick Sabin: 44%
Undecided: 8%

Lean Republican Hold

Georgia
John Barrow is going to have a tough time holding his Senate seat. While he holds a 56% approval rating with Georgia voters, his leads on Congressman Rob Woodall by only one point on average in the polls. This is partly from the fact that Rob Woodall has fairly decent favorables, but also has to do with a lot of Barrow's approval coming from Republicans who would vote for Woodall anyway. It's going to be a tight race to see if the Senator can hold on.

Georgia Senate Poll:
Incumbent Senator John Barrow: 49%
Congressman Rob Woodall: 48%
Undecided: 3%

Toss-Up!!!

Louisiana:
Senator Mary Landrieu has also announced her retirement from the Senate. While on its face it looks like an easy pick up for the Republicans, do not be fooled: Mitch Landrieu, Former Mayor of New Orleans, has decided to hop in to the pot. Currently, this is looking like a rematch of the incredibly close gubernatorial race between Jay Dardenne and Mitch Landrieu back in 2015, with Dardenne, like back in 2015, holding a narrow lead. However, look out for Mitch in this one.

Louisiana Senate Poll:
Governor Jay Dardene: 47%
Former Mayor of New Orleans Mitch Landrieu: 45%
Undecided: 7%

Toss-Up!!!

Kentucky:
After one term, Senator Alison Lundergan Grimes has decided to retire. This leaves an opportunity: an opportunity for a comeback. Former Senator Rand Paul has won a brutal primary against establishment backed Congressman Brett Guthrie, and looks set to win by double digits in a rematch with Lieutenant Governor Jack Conway, who wasn't expecting Rand to make it out of a primary against Guthrie.

Kentucky Republican Primary:
Former Senator Rand Paul: 56%
Congressman Brett Guthrie: 44%

Kentucky Senate Polls:
Former Senator Rand Paul: 54%
Lieutenant Governor Jack Conway: 40%
Undecided: 6%

Likely Republican Pick-Up

Massachusetts:
Scott Brown, ever the man for a challenge, is now fighting against Governor Mike Capuano. Right now, in many polls, Scott looks like a very very narrow underdog, trailing Capuano by 1 to 4 points, but Brown is not going down without a fight, so this will be one of the funner races to look at of the night.

Massachusetts Senate Poll:
Governor Mike Capuano: 48%
Incumbent Senator Scott Brown: 46%
Undecided: 6%

Toss-Up!!!

North Carolina:
Senator Kay Hagan, after last term finding luck, does not find herself much luck this time around. Popular Governor of North Carolina Pat McCrory has decided to run for the Senate seat. Currently, he holds big leads, as her popularity has sullied over the past 6 years. Can she hold on? Most sources are saying that is unlikely.

North Carolina Senate Poll:
Governor Pat McCrory: 50%
Incumbent Senator Kay Hagan: 43%
Undecided: 7%

Lean Republican Pick-Up

Maine:
After all these years, Susan Collins has announced her retirement. As expected, this seat looks like its in the Democrats hands for the taking. However, Governor Eliot Cutler is not far behind, with the Republican, Roger Katz, fully sullying his campaign with sex scandals and cat videos. Hannah Pingree is the Democratic nominee, and things are looking like a dead heat.

Maine Senate Poll:
Congresswoman Hannah Pingree (D): 42%
Governor Eliot Cutler (I): 40%
State Senator Roger Katz (R): 9%
Undecided: 9%

Toss-Up!!!*

*with Cutler likely to caucus with the Democrats, in terms of caucus, this is the most Likely Democratic Pick-Up of the cycle.

Iowa:
With Tom Harkin's final retirement. Secretary of State Darrel Beall is the Democrat who announced his time to replace the aging Senator. However, Republicans, learning their lesson, narrowly nominate Congresswoman Kim Reynolds, who leads Beall ever so slightly. This is another race for the ages.

Iowa Senate Poll:
Congresswoman Kim Reynolds: 45%
Secretary of State Darrel Beall: 43%
Undecided: 12%

Toss-up!!!

To be continued...

[HelpOklahoma]

I wonder what you are going to call 2024...

[hurricanehink]

Can't wait to see what happens! I wonder if some more surprises will happen before Election Day to hurt Christie (incumbents usually win in close elections), or if Turkey is that surprise and he has some issues.

[Emperor Charles V]

I wonder what you are going to call 2024...

Things get Even Nuttier in 2024?

[Governor Maxwell]

I wonder what you are going to call 2024...

Things get Even Nuttier in 2024?

Probably not going to do 2024 As soon as 2020 ends, I think this timeline ends.

[HelpOklahoma]

I wonder what you are going to call 2024...

Things get Even Nuttier in 2024?

Probably not going to do 2024 As soon as 2020 ends, I think this timeline ends.

Sad to see it end soon, but please do a wrap up...

[Governor Maxwell]

Governors Races:

Utah:
Jim Matheson holds a 59% approval rating from Utah voters. That may sound big, but in Utah, that's relatively small potatoes: Governor Jon Huntsman was in the 90s. Even Gary Herbert mostly held in the upper 60s. Matheson's numbers are incredibly strong for a Democrat, but nevertheless, he is entirely vulnerable. His opponent is Congressman Jason Chaffetz, who has a strong fundraising bone, and has been narrowing Governor Matheson's lead. This looks like its a Lean Democratic hold, but consider Governor Matheson in some trouble.

Utah Governors Poll:
Incumbent Governor Jim Matheson: 51%
Congressman Jason Chaffetz: 44%
Undecided: 5%

Lean Democratic Hold

Missouri:
Peter Kinder finds himself in some deep trouble. With sinking approvals, a re-match from Russ Carnahan has him on the losing side of the table, and although he won the GOP primary he only beat Ann Wagner by 15 points. Kinder may turn this around, but things aren't looking good this far out.

Missouri Republican Primary:
Incumbent Governor Peter Kinder: 53%
Congresswoman Ann Wagner: 38%
Former Congressman Todd Akin: 8%
Others: 1%

Missouri Governor Poll:
Former Congressman Russ Carnahan: 49%
Incumbent Governor Peter Kinder: 47%
Undecided: 4%

Toss-Up!!!

Montana:
After Steve Bullock has finished his second term as Montanas Governor, the Montana GOP looks ready to try to take back the Governorship. Lieutenant Governor John Walsh is ran unopposed on the Democratic side, while Attorney General Tim Fox is running on the Republican side. Tim Fox has a narrow lead over Walsh, but its looking to be a brutal race.

Montana Governor Poll:
Attorney General Tim Fox: 44%
Lieutenant Governor John Walsh: 39%
Former Congress Candidate Dave Kaiser: 5%
Undecided: 12%

Toss-Up!!!

North Carolina:
Pat McCrory leaves North Carolina very popular, and his successor has now been decided in a brutal primary: it's Congressman Patrick McHenry! McHenry holds a double digit lead over Congressman Richard Moore, who also faced a double edge primary.

North Carolina Republican Primary:
Former Land Comissioner Cherie Berry: 38%
Congressman Patrick McHenry: 29%
Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest: 24%
Former Speaker of the House Thom Tillis: 4%
Others: 5%

North Carolina Republican Run-Off:
Congressman Patrick McHenry: 53%
Former Land Comissioner Cherie Berry: 47%

North Carolina Democratic Primary:
Congressman Richard Moore: 32%
Secretary of State Roy Cooper: 31%
State Senator Dan Blue: 21%
Others: 16%

North Carolina Democratic Run-Off:
Congressman Richard Moore: 61%
Secretary of State Roy Cooper: 39%

North Carolina Governor Poll:
Congressman Patrick McHenry: 52%
Congressman Richard Moore: 38%
Undecided: 10%

Likely Republican Hold

Next Up: The Republican National Convention!!!

[PolitiJunkie]

We going to see this continue?

[Governor Maxwell]

We going to see this continue?

Eventually...

[Emperor Charles V]

Is this TL dead? What a shame, it was one of my favorites.

[Governor Maxwell]

Republican National Convention

Christie and others rock the Republican convention!



President Chris Christie has gained a huge amount of steam with the Republican Convention. The more moderate Republican Party touted the accomplishments of the Christie administration, with increased Education spending, repeal of the Patriot Act, and general calming around the world. They also went after Senator Edelen and Castro hard, attacking their lack of general experience and both of their voting records. Christie's speech, in particular, rocked the crowd.

Post-RNC Presidential Poll:
President Chris Christie: 51%
Senator Adam Edelen: 44%
Undecided: 5%

Favorables/Approvals:

President Chris Christie:
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 42%
Undecided: 5%

Vice President Brian Sandoval:
Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 33%
Undecided: 12%

Senator Adam Edelen:
Favorable: 48%
Unfavorable: 42%
Undecided: 10%

Congressman Joaquin Castro:
Favorable: 39%
Unfavorable: 33%
Undecided: 28%

Vice President Sandoval leads an early 2024 Poll, but not too far ahead enough for Governor Amash or Senator Pence



Early 2024 National Republican Primary Poll:
Vice President Brian Sandoval: 32%
Governor Justin Amash: 21%
Senator Mike Pence: 16%
Former Governor Pat McCrory: 10%
Governor Charles Djou: 4%
Senator Dean Heller: 2%
Undecided: 15%

Very moderate Vice President Brian Sandoval, with some surprise from conservative pundits, leads the GOP field by 11 points. His massive personal popularity and his approval ratings have many Republicans thinking he is the obvious heir to the Christie Presidency. However, many conservatives are irritated with the Christie Presidency and don't want to continue under a new name. Those voters seem to be split on 2 or 3 names. The big two are Governor Justin Amash and Senator Mike Pence. Mike Pence is a die hard conservative who many thought would've been extremely competitive in a primary against the incumbent President Christie. However, he bowed out due to personal connections with many Christie fundraisers and staffers, but this doesn't stop him from running against Sandoval. Amash is the Governor of Michigan, who has governed as a staunch conservative on fiscal policy, but has been very moderate on social issues. He pushed for referendums on gay marriage and marijuana legalization. While that infuriates many social conservatives, a lot of conservatives are very satisfied with his bonafides on fiscal policy. The third, though not as much, is the former Governor of North Carolina Pat McCrory, who left extremely popular. Though not as conservative as Amash or Pence, he is staunchly conservative and very much a favorite among the non-Sandovalites.

[Emperor Charles V]

Yeah! It's back! Go Christie!!!!!