Florida in 1992

[Joe Republic]

One thing that people tend to focus on in the '92 election is the fact that Bill Clinton won Montana and Georgia, albeit narrowly.  Even though these generally Republican states swung to the Democratic column, Florida didn't.  It opted for Bush by about two points.

Now maybe I'm just looking at it from a 2007 perspective, but the fact that MT and GA would vote Democratic but FL wouldn't just seems a little odd.

Can anybody explain why this happened?

[Aizen]

Well, Montana went for Clinton because of Perot but as for Georgia and Florida, I really don't know.

[WalterMitty]

clinton didnt contest florida, mainly due to the 1988 results.

if clinton would have poured time and money into the sunshine state, he probably would have carried it.

[bullmoose88]

Could it be some good will towards Bush Senior for the Federal Government's involvement in cleaning up Hurricane Andrew?

I don't quite remember if the US govt was particularly efficient, but it could work as a theory.

Florida was also one of Bush senior's best states in 1988.

[Cubby]

Florida's large elderly population helped swing Florida in 1996, b/c Clinton said that Dole would cut Medicare/Social Security benefits.

Maybe this same group stayed with Bush I b/c in 1992 b/c Clinton was seen as too young and to much of a 60's flower child. The draft dodging charge would be a big negative in a state like Florida (lots of old people, and lots of veterans)

[HardRCafé]

Georgia was Democrat then, and stayed Democrat till 2002.  Dole actually pulled the upset there in 1996:  subtle foreshadowing in retrospect.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Well Joe, others are entirely correct about Georgia being a traditionally Democrat state provided that the Democrat nominee wasn't a vocal liberal (like McGovern to Dukakis).

Now, with respect to the Florida/Montana comparison, lets first look at the numbers:

State     Party                           Year
                           1988          1992          Comparison

Florida

             Rep          61%         41%               -20
   
             Dem         36            36                      0

             Ind                           20                  +20

Montana

             Rep           52           35                   -17

             Dem          46           38                   -  8

             Ind                           26                   +26

Essentially, what happened is that Bush's victory margin was considerably smaller in Montana in 88 than in Florida, such that the Perot candidacy hurt him worse there.

[bullmoose88]

Is there a typo somewhere? or am I adding things up that shouldnt be added.

State     Party                           Year
                           1988          1992          Comparison

Florida

             Rep          61%         41%               -20
  
             Dem         46            46                      0

             Ind                           20                  +20
                            ____
                            107%???

[Joe Republic]

Thanks for the responses, everybody.

Now I'm not going to point fingers or whine about it, but I'd just like to point out that the word (in the context in which it was used) is 'Democratic'.

[True Democrat]

Is there a typo somewhere? or am I adding things up that shouldnt be added.

State     Party                           Year
                           1988          1992          Comparison

Florida

             Rep          61%         41%               -20
   
             Dem         46            46                      0

             Ind                           20                  +20
                            ____
                            107%???

Florida was under 40% Dem in 88 and 92.

[Nym90]

Florida was still a Republican state in 1992. It swung to the left to become a swing state in the mid 1990's. It might be drifting ever so slightly right, but time will tell if this is true or not.

Georgia was still a state that while leaning Republican, was willing to vote for a moderate Southern Democrat. It's since gone further right to become a Republican stronghold, but at that time it still very much liked moderate to conservative Democrats. Montana also used to be pretty much a genuine swing state throughout the 80's and early 90's. It then moved right to become solidly Republican, though it seems to possibly be inching back toward competitive. It still doesn't like the national Democratic party much, but is more than willing to vote for local Democrats.

[minionofmidas]

Is there a typo somewhere? or am I adding things up that shouldnt be added.

State     Party                           Year
                           1988          1992          Comparison

Florida

             Rep          61%         41%               -20
  
             Dem         46            46                      0

             Ind                           20                  +20
                            ____
                            107%???

Both Dukakis and Clinton 92 took 39% in Florida. How that weird typo happened is beyond me, but at least the no-change part is correct.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is there a typo somewhere? or am I adding things up that shouldnt be added.

State     Party                           Year
                           1988          1992          Comparison

Florida

             Rep          61%         41%               -20
  
             Dem         46            46                      0

             Ind                           20                  +20
                            ____
                            107%???

You are right.  The 46 should have been 36.  Sorry about the typo.

[Gustaf]

Georgia was probably still more Democrat friendly in 1992 than Florida.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Georgia was probably still more Democrat friendly in 1992 than Florida.

Yep. both were very different states at the time.

Florida changed a lot. The two strongest Democratic counties in it now that provide the main Democratic vote base both voted for Goldwater in fact.