Alabama Senate - James Folsom, Jr. What if...?

[Adlai Stevenson]

The current Lieutenant Governor of Alabama is Democrat James Folsom, Jr.  He was elected last November in a close race, winning 50%-49%.  However, 26 years earlier he lost a similarly tight Senate race, to Republican Jeremiah Denton in 1980.

I am basically asking: what would have happened if Folsom, who lost 50%-47% to Denton, had instead won?  In 1986, Richard Shelby, then a Democrat, defeated Denton 50%-49%.  So presumably we can assume that Folsom would have won re-election in 1986.  Then what?  In 1992, Shelby won re-election in a landslide; 64%-33%.  In 1994 he switched to the Republican Party.  But consider Folsom, a conservative Democrat who has stayed loyal to the party.  Could he have won re-election in 1986, 1992, 1998 and most recently in 2004?  What his career have been like?  Could he have run for President at some point?  I just think its interesting to note that Alabama could very conceivably still have a Democratic Senator in office.  Folsom could have become an entrenched incumbent, as Shelby presumably would have done if he had not switched to the GOP).

[MarkWarner08]

Do you think Folsom could beat Sessions? He's still relatively young and he's now got a launching pad (LG) to run for the Senate.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd like to think Folsom could beat Sessions. Any populist type of Democrat would be preferable to Sessions. Had he defeated Denton back in 1980, its plausible that he'd still be a Democratic senator even if a relatively conservative one by national standards

To this day, old school white conservative Democrats remain prominent in the Alabama Legislature, though they can be differentiated from their Republican colleagues on that they are more progressive on economic issues

Dave

[socaldem]

I'd like to think Folsom could beat Sessions. Any populist type of Democrat would be preferable to Sessions. Had he defeated Denton back in 1980, its plausible that he'd still be a Democratic senator even if a relatively conservative one by national standards

To this day, old school white conservative Democrats remain prominent in the Alabama Legislature, though they can be differentiated from their Republican colleagues on that they are more progressive on economic issues

Dave

And, I'm guessing since they caucus with black Democrats, they're probably somewhat progressive on race issues, or at least not as retrograde as their GOP colleagues.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd like to think Folsom could beat Sessions. Any populist type of Democrat would be preferable to Sessions. Had he defeated Denton back in 1980, its plausible that he'd still be a Democratic senator even if a relatively conservative one by national standards

To this day, old school white conservative Democrats remain prominent in the Alabama Legislature, though they can be differentiated from their Republican colleagues on that they are more progressive on economic issues

Dave

And, I'm guessing since they caucus with black Democrats, they're probably somewhat progressive on race issues, or at least not as retrograde as their GOP colleagues.

Most white Alabama Democrats I dare say are fairly reconciled with civil rights. In his later years, even George Wallace, who was stridently segregationist for much of his career in Alabama politics, atoned for being so

Many white Southern Democrats were not necesarily avowedly racist as such. What they objected to was federally-enforced civil rights since they were staunch states rights advocates. Others, of course, were racist

Civil and voting rights may have eventually been granted to African Americans in Southern states of their own volition. Slowly, but surely, white Southern Democrats became more progressive on race than their forebearers

Indeed, as Richard Nixon was sweeping the South over George McGovern in 1972, ten of the eleven states in the Old Confederacy either elected or had moderate-to-progressive governors, 7 Democrats, such as Carter of Georgia and Askew of Florida, and 3 Republicans, including Holton of Virginia (father-in-law of current Democratic governor, Tim Kaine) many on a platform calling for economic fairness and racial reconciliation

Wallace, of Alabama, was the exception. His apology for his past segregationism didn't come until the late 1970s. His final term as governor, from 1983 to 1987, saw him appoint many African Americans to government positions

Dave

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'd guess that Folsom may have defected to the GOP anyway post 1994, had he been in the US Senate.  It's a lot easier to be part of the majority, especially when you're of similar ideology.

Had he stayed a Democrat, he'd have about as much shot at being on a national ticket as, say, Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'd guess that Folsom may have defected to the GOP anyway post 1994, had he been in the US Senate.  It's a lot easier to be part of the majority, especially when you're of similar ideology.

It certainly seems plausible that Folsom, were he a Democratic senator, may have defected to the GOP. Then again maybe, the thought of "Big Jim" turning in his grave would have kept Little Jim a Democrat, which, of course, he still is

Dave