my generic election 2008 predictions

[Mr. Morden]

Here are my generic predictions for the 2008 election.  Each of these apply to the Democratic and Republican nomination races *and* to the general election.

Predictions:

There will be many commentators (both on this board, and in the media at large) who will read *way* too much into short term trends (usually derived from the polls), assuming that those trends will continue uninterrupted until the election "unless something unexpected happens".  It will not occur to the commentators that every election includes numerous unexpected things happening.

Many commentators will predict that various candidates are sure to win and that other candidates are as good as done *well* before it makes any sense to do so.  It will not occur to the commentator that the leading candidate is simply *favored* to win, and is not a sure thing.  When critics point out past elections in which the outcome ended up being much different from what people were initially predicting, the commentator will argue that "this election is different" for one reason or another, and that this is one election in which it does make sense to make such bold predictions well in advance.  Alternatively, the commentator will argue that while others incorrectly predicted those previous elections, the commentator in question is much better at predicting these things than most other people.

The actual election results will turn out much differently from what many of these commentators were predicting early on.  Once this happens, the commentators will argue that the only reason for the surprising election results is that there was some unexpected event that no one could have predicted.  Again, it will not occur to the commentators that every election campaign has unexpected events, and that they should have been more cautious with their initial predictions, and included more caveats.

A few months after the election, the commentators will pretend that they never made those incorrect election predictions.  In fact, they'll convince themselves that everyone could see the final outcome of the election coming from miles away.  They will argue that the actual election outcome was the only one that ever could have happened given the particular candidates who were in the race, and there was no chance involved whatsoever.

[Mr. Morden]

Thanks. 

Once you've followed a few presidential elections, all of this becomes common sense, but people seem to fall into these same traps again and again.

[Mr. Morden]

How 'bout that... they all came true!

It's already happening all over again with the 2012 election.  People in the 2012 forum are already making blanket statements such as "so and so would win all the McCain states except Arizona and Missouri" or some such thing.  Guys, you can't predict exactly which states will go which way in an election years in advance.  How many people here, if you had asked them back in November 2004, would have guessed that Obama was going to win 365 electoral votes against McCain in 2008?  How many would have predicted that the Democratic candidate was going to win North Carolina while losing Missouri?