Rasmussen: Clinton's lead over Obama erodes further, Edwards rising

[Tender Branson]

March 5, 2007

Clinton - 34%
Obama - 26%
Edwards - 15%
Richardson - 3%
Biden - 3%

New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) down three points. Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) unchanged. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D) up two points. Those numbers from the latest Rasmussen Reports national poll on the Democratic Presidential nomination process highlight a week that shows little change in the overall dynamic of the race. 

Clinton remains in first place with support from 34% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide. That’s down slightly from 37% from a week ago. Obama is still in second place with 26% and Edwards holds down the number three position with 15% support.

This is the second Rasmussen Reports weekly poll result without former Vice President Al Gore (D) in the running and the first without former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack (D).

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) and Delaware Senator Joe Biden (D) each attract 3% support.

Obama edges Clinton 28% to 26% among male voters while the former First Lady enjoys a 14-point advantage among women.

This national telephone survey of 769 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 26 through March 1, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Democratic%20Primaries/DemocraticPresidentialPrimary.htm

[Verily]

The gender gap is particularly interesting and may still reflect a lack of information by all voters (one would expect the vast majority of male voters not to be supporting Obama because he's male) that may give Obama an ultimate edge over Clinton as her edge among women erodes over the campaign. Of course, that assumes that her edge among women does erode to only a few points or possibly evens; it may not.

[Aizen]

It's always good to see Hillary's lead eroding even further

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

It's always good to see Hillary's lead eroding even further

[Mr. Morden]

The gender gap is particularly interesting and may still reflect a lack of information by all voters (one would expect the vast majority of male voters not to be supporting Obama because he's male) that may give Obama an ultimate edge over Clinton as her edge among women erodes over the campaign. Of course, that assumes that her edge among women does erode to only a few points or possibly evens; it may not.

I'm not following you.  How does the gender gap reflect a lack of information by all voters?  What sort of gender breakdown would you expect if all the voters were perfectly informed?

[DownWithTheLeft]

OMG Joe Biden is up to 3%!!!  This is the headline

[Reaganfan]

The fact that Obama mentioned he might run and the first poll he was in shot him to #2, that says something about the Democratic Party as a whole. They are a party run by media, hype and youthfulness. They don't care about traditional values. Obama is way too liberal for my liking.

[agcatter]

Hillary continues her slow erosion.  In a couple of months expect Obama to pull even.  That's when you can expect her to act desperate and it aint gonna be pretty.  The real Hillary will then be out in the open for all to see.

Hillary doesn't win the nomination in my opinion.  The question is what kind of damage the Clinton machine will do to the Democratic nominee (probably Obama).  I have to admit, I thought the Clintons would roll over anyone who dared to take her on.  After watching Scarlet O'Hillary in action yesterday, I'm beginning to think Hillary's decline will be a lot more rapid than I ever would imagine.

This from a Republican, but I think there are just too many Democrats who want to win a general election and too much doubt among them that Hillary could win.  That's what is really killing her.  From my point of view, this is a disturbing developement.  Hillary's negatives were going to insure the White House stayed with my party.  Now, I don't know.

[Reaganfan]

The funny thing is, in some polls, Hillary does better than Obama. It's all moot, because I still think McCain and Giuliani can beat both of them.

[Verily]

The gender gap is particularly interesting and may still reflect a lack of information by all voters (one would expect the vast majority of male voters not to be supporting Obama because he's male) that may give Obama an ultimate edge over Clinton as her edge among women erodes over the campaign. Of course, that assumes that her edge among women does erode to only a few points or possibly evens; it may not.

I'm not following you.  How does the gender gap reflect a lack of information by all voters?  What sort of gender breakdown would you expect if all the voters were perfectly informed?

There are undoubtedly a number of women, maybe 5-10% of the Democratic female electorate, who are supporting Clinton simply because she's female (thus the gender gap). Some of those will stick with Clinton as the campaign continues, but some will change their minds as they see other candidates views and Clinton's own.

By contrast, the number of male Democratic voters not supporting Clinton because of her gender is likely minimal, maybe 2% at most. That leaves Obama at evens with Clinton already in a "gender neutral" race, and we're clearly seeing signs of "the more Democrats know about Clinton, the less likely they are to vote for her".