Texas Senate 2008

[adam]

I believe he is. I have been all over the state recently, and everyone I have spoken to seems to be getting sick of this idiot.

I am seriously considering working for the Democratic campaign against him in 2008.

Thoughts on this race?

[minionofmidas]

it would take a pretty damn strong candidate to make this competitive - but it's not out of the question.

[Adlai Stevenson]

This race certainly has potential and it obviously also depends upon the national climate at the time and who the Democratic candidate is.  Let us not forget that this is Texas, however.  Yet I do expect a bit of a Democratic regeneration in Texas in 2008; hopefully the Presidential nominee will get over 40% of the vote and the Senate race could be moderately competetive.

The best candidates would seem to be Houston Mayor Bill White, Congressman Henry Cuellar, former Lieutenant Gubernatorial candidate John Sharp and possibly 2002 candidate Ron Kirk.  Yet none of these men have yet declared; and the reality is, none of them may.  The candidates we can probably expect to run are less impressive; Barbara Ann Radnofsky and Chris Bell.  Radnosfky lost 61%-36% lost Senator Kay Bailey  Hutchison last year, and Bell lost the four-way Gubernatorial race 49%-39%.  Neither of them would probably make the race competetive.

From my own point of view, Cornyn strikes me as a George Allen type - I could easily imagine his campaign imploding if he makes embarrassing remarks.  There is also the chance he will be appointed to the Supreme Court in which case the dynamics change altogether and the GOP's chance of holding the seat comfortably would increase.

[Sam Spade]

Kirk - no chance
White - no chance
Cuellar - slight chance
Sharp - slight chance (better chance than Cuellar)

The issue and prevalence of straight-party voting in Texas, which tends to become more prevalent during Presidential elections, is another big factor that is likely to be overlooked.

[Yates]

Perhaps Jim Turner will run.

[JSojourner]

I would love to see Cornyn disappear into obscurity.  But the best chance for that is for him to be defeated by a moderate Republican or even a non-Theocratic conservative in the primary.

I am not sure if the Texas GOP is still controlled by the Theocrats like DeLay and company or by more sensible conservatives like KBH.

[Chesco ABB]

I remember reading a very positive article about Kirk in the Washington Journal (shocking, I know). What happened to his campaign to lose so badly, other than being a black Dem in Texas in a Republican year?

[Sam Spade]

I would love to see Cornyn disappear into obscurity.  But the best chance for that is for him to be defeated by a moderate Republican or even a non-Theocratic conservative in the primary.

I am not sure if the Texas GOP is still controlled by the Theocrats like DeLay and company or by more sensible conservatives like KBH.

DeLay wasn't really a "Theocrat", as much as he used "Theocrats" for his own political purposes.  There's a big difference between the two concepts.

You do realize the only issue that KBH is slightly moderate on is abortion.  Her lifetime ACU rating (the true measure for conservative Republicans) is 90, whereas Cornyn's is 94.  Not much distinction there.  Maybe it's her tone of voice that you measure that distinction.

Lastly, I would put Jim Turner in the slight chance category.  One thing few people are remembering is that its kind of hard for a moderate/conservative Democrat to get past the primary in Texas, unless the Democratic party clears the field out for him/her. 

Also, in the general election, its become nearly impossible for Democrats to rely on a rural/urban coalition anymore to bring them to victory.  The numbers simply aren't there and the suburbs keep growing.  This is perhaps one reason why I would place Sharp's chances at higher than the other two. 

Simply put, until a Democrat figures out a way to break this suburban barrier at the statewide level, they're not going to win any races.  I've been waiting to see it occur, and it certainly hasn't yet.

[Sam Spade]

I remember reading a very positive article about Kirk in the Washington Journal (shocking, I know). What happened to his campaign to lose so badly, other than being a black Dem in Texas in a Republican year?

I doubt the Republican year made much of a difference (well, a couple of points perhaps).  My main question would be how a black urban mayor is going to win over the Texas suburbs in any year?  Not to mention rural white Texas.

Remember, Cornyn did win statewide races for Supreme Court Justice and Attorney General before, so it's not like this is an untested opponent who hasn't won at the state level.

[jimrtex]

Lastly, I would put Jim Turner in the slight chance category.  One thing few people are remembering is that its kind of hard for a moderate/conservative Democrat to get past the primary in Texas, unless the Democratic party clears the field out for him/her. 

This is especially true if the statewide primary remains on the same day as the presidential primary.  You'll be drawing more voters who won't have the foggiest idea who Turner is, and those who might support Turner may avoid the Democrat primary altogether because of who's running.

[minionofmidas]

I would love to see Cornyn disappear into obscurity.  But the best chance for that is for him to be defeated by a moderate Republican or even a non-Theocratic conservative in the primary.

I am not sure if the Texas GOP is still controlled by the Theocrats like DeLay and company or by more sensible conservatives like KBH.

DeLay wasn't really a "Theocrat", as much as he used "Theocrats" for his own political purposes.  There's a big difference between the two concepts.

DeLay was and is an evil man, but that doesn't make him a theocrat.

Just like Saddam Hussein was no Islamist.

[JSojourner]

I would love to see Cornyn disappear into obscurity.  But the best chance for that is for him to be defeated by a moderate Republican or even a non-Theocratic conservative in the primary.

I am not sure if the Texas GOP is still controlled by the Theocrats like DeLay and company or by more sensible conservatives like KBH.

DeLay wasn't really a "Theocrat", as much as he used "Theocrats" for his own political purposes.  There's a big difference between the two concepts.

You do realize the only issue that KBH is slightly moderate on is abortion.  Her lifetime ACU rating (the true measure for conservative Republicans) is 90, whereas Cornyn's is 94.  Not much distinction there.  Maybe it's her tone of voice that you measure that distinction.

Lastly, I would put Jim Turner in the slight chance category.  One thing few people are remembering is that its kind of hard for a moderate/conservative Democrat to get past the primary in Texas, unless the Democratic party clears the field out for him/her. 

Also, in the general election, its become nearly impossible for Democrats to rely on a rural/urban coalition anymore to bring them to victory.  The numbers simply aren't there and the suburbs keep growing.  This is perhaps one reason why I would place Sharp's chances at higher than the other two. 

Simply put, until a Democrat figures out a way to break this suburban barrier at the statewide level, they're not going to win any races.  I've been waiting to see it occur, and it certainly hasn't yet.

Sam,

Thanks for a truly articulate and thoughtful post!  I appreciate your insights.