Hillary-Free Timeline

[Reignman]

Jan. 20, 2001 - George W. Bush becomes America’s 43rd president. His party lost ground in both the House and Senate in the 2000 elections, but holds narrow majorities in each. One of the new senators from the 2000 elections is Rick Lazio from New York, who faced feeble opposition in the general election. After the inauguration party, Bill and Hillary Clinton leave the White House to spend their lives as private citizens again.

[George W. Hobbes]

Yes.

[Reignman]

Jan. 20, 2001 - George W. Bush becomes America’s 43rd president. His party lost ground in both the House and Senate in the 2000 elections, but holds narrow majorities in each. One of the new senators from the 2000 elections is Rick Lazio from New York who faced feeble opposition in the general election. After the inauguration party, Bill and Hillary Clinton leave the White House to spend their lives as private citizens again.

Until the 2004 election (Bush still defeats Kerry), history passes a lot like it actually did. Hillary Clinton still releases her book "Living History." Some political pundits wonder if she'll ever run for public office, but Mrs. Clinton says she is not planning on ever being a politician.

February 17 2005- Marist College Polls for party nomination in 2008:

John Kerry 36%
John Edwards 29%
Joe Biden 7%
Wesley Clark 6%
Russ Feingold 3%
Bill Richardson 3%
Mark Warner 1%
Evan Bayh 1%

Rudy Giuliani 26%
John McCain 22%
Condoleezza Rice 11%
Jeb Bush 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Bill Frist 3%
Bill Owens 2%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Mitt Romney 1%

Most of 2005 happens just as it did in our timeline. In March, Delaware Senator Joe Biden says he will seek the Democratic nomination. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel states his intention to run in April. Dodd says he will "do all the things that are necessary to prepare to seek the presidency in 2008" in May. Over the course of the year, Democrats become more and more interested in candidates other than Kerry for 2008.

October 12 - Former Democratic Virginia Governor and widely-speculated 2008 contender Mark Warner states that he will not seek the presidency in 2008.

October 22 - Obama announces he has changed his mind about seeking the presidency. "After November 7, I'll sit down, I'll sit down and consider, and if at some point I change my mind, I will make a public announcement and everybody will be able to go at me," he said. His numbers in the polls soar.

October 29 - Massachusetts Senator John Kerry makes a "botched joke" about education and Iraq, which dominates the news for the rest of the month.

A CNN poll for the Democratic party nomination released just as Senator Kerry made these statements show the following:

Barack Obama 25%
John Edwards 19%
Al Gore 17%
John Kerry 16%
Evan Bayh 3%
Joe Biden 3%
Bill Richardson 3%
Russ Feingold 2%
Tom Vilsack 1%

October 30 - Republican Representative Duncan Hunter from California announces the formation of an exploratory committee for a presidential run.

November 7 - A Rasmussen Reports Poll for the Democratic party nomination shows the following:

Barack Obama 32%
Al Gore 21%
John Edwards 20%
John Kerry 5%

Clearly Kerry's "botched joke" has all but finished his presidential aspirations. Political pundits are once again writing off Kerry as a presidential candidate.

Later that day, the Democrats win a big victory in the 2006 midterm elections. They gain control of the House and claim a majority of governorships. After Jim Webb officially wins the seat in Virginia, the Senate stands at a 50-50 tie.

November 8 - Sect. Of State Donald Rumsfeld resigns.
Later that day, John Kerry announces he will not seek his party’s nomination for president in 2008. He would later deny that his “botched joke” factored into this decision.

In the remainder of November, efforts to draft Al Gore for President reach a frenzy now that Senator Kerry is out of the race. Gore maintains that he has no plans to run for President ever again.

There are a lot of announcements concerning running for president in this month. As in our timeline, Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack files papers with the FEC for running for president and makes an official announcement later in the month. Senator John McCain forms an exploratory committee, followed a few days later by former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani and then former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson. Senators Rick Santorum and Bill Frist both announce they won't seek the presidency.

On the 11th of November, Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold announced he is a candidate for the Democratic nomination.

December 1 - Indiana Senator Evan Bayh announces he is a candidate for the Democratic nomination. Later that day, Illinois Senator Barack Obama lets it be known on the Tonight Show that he's considering a presidential bid.

In the next few days former South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle withdraws his name from the race, as does Senator George Allen of Virginia, and Republican Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas announces formation of an exploratory committee.

December 11 - Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich announces he will not seek the presidency in 2008. When asked about who he would support in the Democratic primary, he did not say.

December 16 - Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards announces he will formally start his candidacy later in the month. Three days later, former Virginia Governor James S. Gilmore III, announces he is setting up an exploratory committee, saying that he is a "Reagan Republican."

December 28 - Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards officially kicks off his campaign in New Orleans.

State of nomination races at beginning of the new year:

National Race (Gallup, Dec. 11-14):

Democrats:
Barack Obama 31%
Al Gore 20%
John Edwards 15%
Joe Biden 6%
Russ Feingold 5%
Wesley Clark 5%
Evan Bayh 3%
Bill Richardson 3%
Chris Dodd 1%
Tom Vilsack 1%

Republicans:
John McCain 29%
Rudy Giuliani 29%
Condoleezza Rice 10%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Mitt Romney 4%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Sam Brownback 2%
George Allen 2%
Tommy Thompson 2%
Chuck Hagel 1%
George Pataki 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%

Iowa (KCCI-TV in Des Moines):

Democrats: Barack Obama 27%, John Edwards 26%, Tom Vilsack 14%, Al Gore 10%, Wesley Clark 5%, Russ Feingold 4%, Joe Biden 1%, Evan Bayh 1%, Bill Richardson 1%

Republicans: John McCain 28%; Rudy Giuliani 26%, Mitt Romney 9%. Newt Gingrich 7%. Condi Rice 3%, George Pataki 1%, Jeb Bush 1%, George Allen 1%, Sam Brownback 1%

New Hampshire (Research 2000):

Democrats: Barack Obama 31%, John Edwards 23%, Al Gore 17%, Wesley Clark 6%, Russ Feingold 4%, Joe Biden 2%, Tom Vilsack 2%, Evan Bayh 2%, Bill Richardson 2%

Republicans: Rudolph Giuliani 27%, John McCain 26%, Mitt Romney 10%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Condi Rice 4%, George Pataki 3%, Jeb Bush 1%, George Allen 1%, Sam Brownback 1%, Rick Santorum 1%. Duncan Hunter 0%

[Reignman]

January 1, 2007 - In the first scandal of the campaign, Rudy Giuliani's secret campaign strategy is made public in the New York Daily News. Giuliani claims the material was stolen while the News claims it was left in a hotel accidentally.

January 3 - Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney files papers to set up an exploratory committee. He will leave his office the next day.

January 4 - The new session of Congress starts.

January 5 - Kansas Senator Sam Brownback's exploratory committee announces his campaign will officially start on the 20th.

January 7 - Senator Joe Biden of Delaware officially declares his candidacy.

January 9 - Civil rights activist Al Sharpton announces he will not seek the presidency in 2008. On the same day, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore files papers for an exploratory committee.

January 11 - There’s a lot of important announcements today. Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd officially announces his candidacy and files papers for an full-fledged campaing committee. Also, Texas representative Ron Paul announces the formation of a presidential exploratory committee. Finally, the Democratic National Committee announces that it will have its National convention in Denver, Colorado.

January 12 - California Representative Duncan Hunter files papers to establish an exploratory committee. Colorado Representative Tom Tancredo also files papers to establish an exploratory committee three days later.

January 16 - Illinois Senator Barack Obama formally announces his candidacy for president.

January 20 - Kansas Senator Sam Brownback officially announces his candidacy for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination in a rally in his homestate of Kansas. The next day, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson announces the formation of a presidential exploratory committee.

January 25 - Representative Duncan Hunter formally and officially becomes a candidate. Four days later, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee files papers setting up an exploritory committee.

February 5 - Rudy Giuliani files "statement of Candidacy" with the FEC.

February 13 - Mitt Romney formally and officially announces his candidacy.

February 21 - Nevada Democrats hold Presidential forum in Carson City. All the major Democratic presidential candidates were invited, but frontrunner Barack Obama does not make an appearance.

February 25 - At the end of his acceptance speech at the Oscars, Al Gore says, “Finally, tonight, I would like to make a very important announcement...I am not going to run for president again. Not this year, not ever. Never again. Thank you.”

February 26 - Former President Bill Clinton endorses Evan Bayh for president, giving him a huge boost in party support.

February 27 - Former Vice-President Al Gore tells members of the press that he will not be endorsing any Democratic candidates during the primary season and jokes “It didn’t work out so great the last time I did that.” Later in the day, Dennis Kucinich officially endorses Russ Feingold for President.

February 28 - John McCain formally announces that he's going to formally announce his candidacy in April.

March 2 - Tom Vilsack of Iowa withdraws from the race, citing money problems.

The latest polls on the Democratic and Republican nominations at the beginning of the month:

Democrats:
Barack Obama 35%
John Edwards 18%
Russ Feingold 9%
Evan Bayh 8%
Joe Biden 7%
Wesley Clark 6%
Bill Richardson 4%
Chris Dodd 1%

Republicans:
Rudy Giuliani 44%
John McCain 20%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Mitt Romney 8%
Tommy Thompson 2%
Sam Brownback 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
George Pataki 1%
Tom Tancredo 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%
Chuck Hagel 0%
Mike Huckabee 0%

Another poll shows that if the election were held today and the nominees were Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani, 45% would support Obama, 48% would support Giuliani.

Most polls show Edwards leading Obama in Iowa slightly, with Obama leading Edwards slightly in both Nevada and New Hampshire. Edwards is far ahead of Obama in South Carolina.

Giuliani has large leads over McCain in Iowa and Nevada. New Hampshire looks closer, but Giuliani still has the lead there. McCain has a large lead over Giuliani in South Carolina.

March 9 - Nevada Democratic debate is cancelled to protest editorial policies of Fox News.

[Reignman]

I realize the changes to our timeline aren't earth-shattering so far, but the changes will get bigger as time goes on. So far so good?

[YRABNNRM]

I realize the changes to our timeline aren't earth-shattering so far, but the changes will get bigger as time goes on. So far so good?

Yea, keep going.

Was Lazio defeated in 2006?

[George W. Hobbes]

Good work.

And I think Lazio was re-elected because the Senate is tied 50-50, it's not 51-49.

[Reignman]

Good work.

And I think Lazio was re-elected because the Senate is tied 50-50, it's not 51-49.

Correct. I figured that was a reasonable assumption to make.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Nice job. I look foward to seeing more!

[Reignman]

I know I should keep going, but at this point things are going to get less and less accurate since we're venturing into the future.

March 12 - Chuck Hagel announces he is running for president.

In the month of March, Richardson officially announces his candidacy. Others officially announcing their candidacies (who haven't filed for the FEC) are Gilmore, Huckabee, Paul, Tancredo, and Thompson. Wesley Clark announces he will not run for president in 2008.

April 4th and 5th - New Hampshire holds the first debates for the Democratic and Republican nominees.

On the Democratic side we have 8 candidates:

Evan Bayh
Joe Biden
Chris Dodd
John Edwards
Russ Feingold
Mike Gravel
Barack Obama
Bill Richardson

On the Republican side we have 13 candidates:

Sam Brownback
John Cox
Jim Gilmore
Rudy Giuliani
Chuck Hagel
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
Senator John McCain
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Michael Smith
Tom Tancredo
Tommy Thompson

The media is quick to make fun of how crowded the Republican field is. Both debates are almost completely free of any attacks between the candidates.

In the next couple weeks, Newt Gingrich, Michael Savage, Fred Thompson, and George Pataki all announce they won't be joining the race.

April 26 - The South Carolina Democratic Party hosts a presidential debate. In it, Joe Biden accuses Barack Obama of not having the experience to be president.

May 15 - The South Carolina Republican Party hosts a presidential debate. In it, John McCain repeatedly attacks Rudy Giuliani's liberal stances on several issues. Giuliani stays on the defensive and does not attack McCain.

The most recent polls:

Democratic Field:
Barack Obama 36% (+1)
John Edwards 22% (+4)
Russ Feingold 9% (+0)
Evan Bayh 9% (+1)
Joe Biden 7% (+0)
Bill Richardson 4% (+0)
Chris Dodd 1% (+0)
Mike Gravel 0% (+0)

Republican Field:
Rudy Giuliani 46% (+2)
John McCain 20% (+0)
Mitt Romney 8% (+0)
Chuck Hagel 4% (+4)
Tommy Thompson %3 (+1)
Sam Brownback 2% (+1)
Mike Huckabee 2% (+0)
Duncan Hunter 1% (+0)
Tom Tancredo 1% (+0)
Jim Gilmore 0% (+0)
Michael Smith 0% (+0)
Ron Paul 0% (+0)

Throughtout June, McCain continues to attack Giuliani, but his attacks have little effect. Time Magazine’s most recent issue's front cover is a picture of Rudy Giuliani titled "Can This Man Be Stopped?" The article on Giuliani speculates that the GOP nomination may already be over.

Late in the month, Al Sharpton announces he will be supporting Barack Obama in the Democratic Primary.

June 28 - Russ Feingold drops out of the race.

June 29 - When asked if he'll support whoever Feingold endorses, Dennis Kucinich says "Most likely."

July 1 - Annual NAACP Convention convenes, a must appearance for Democratic hopefuls. John Edwards says America needs "experienced leadership" to overcome the challenges that lie ahead.

The most recent polls:

Democratic Field:
Barack Obama 35% (-1)
John Edwards 31% (+9)
Evan Bayh 8% (-1)
Joe Biden 6% (-1)
Bill Richardson 5% (+1)
Chris Dodd 1% (+0)
Mike Gravel 0% (+0)

Republican Field:
Rudy Giuliani 44% (-2)
John McCain 16% (-4)
Mitt Romney 12% (+4)
Chuck Hagel 5% (+1)
Sam Brownback 3% (+1)
Mike Huckabee 3% (+1)
Tommy Thompson %2 (-1)
Duncan Hunter 1% (+0)
Tom Tancredo 1% (+0)
Jim Gilmore 0% (+0)
Michael Smith 0% (+0)
Ron Paul 0% (+0)

July 4 - Feingold endorses Edwards and Kucinich follows suit.

July 6 - Tommy Thompson drops out of the race. Many in the Republican Party hope that the several other candidates with poor chances will also drop out soon.

July 8 - Lyndon LaRouche finally, finally dies.

Later in the month, Jim Gilmore and Michael Smith drop out of the race.

August 11 - Republican straw poll in Ames, Iowa. Giuliani gets first place with 42%. Romney gets second with 15%. McCain gets third with 14%. Hagel gets fourth with 10%. The remaining 19% support other candidates.

Most political pundits agree that Giuliani is unstoppable.

[Reignman]

The Second Half of August

Bush approval ratings have remained stable for months, suggesting his gradual decline since 9/11 has ended. His approval rating is around 31%.

Edwards and Obama lead fundraising in the Democratic nomination. Bayh is in third place as far as fundraising thanks to the Clintons, but this hasn't been translating into support. For the Republican nomination, Giuliani is expected to meet his goal of raising $100 million by the end of the year. Neither McCain nor Romney is expected to have raised that much by the end of the year.

Edwards leads Obama in Iowa by 6 points. Edwards and Obama are both tied for first in Nevada and New Hampshire. Edwards leads Obama by a huge margin in South Carolina. Giuliani has huge leads over McCain in Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. McCain leads Giuliani in South Carolina by only 4 points. Both Romney and Hagel begin to attack Giuliani for his liberal views.

As McCain's numbers in the polls continue to worsen he begins to lose much of his support to Romney. The two campaigns briefly cooperate to a certain extent (ex. sharing information) just as Kerry and Gephardt did briefly in 2003.

August 14 - Jesse Jackson endorses Obama and starts actively campaigning for him.

August 16 - In one of the Democratic debates, Bayh argues he's the moderate alternative to Edwards and Obama for the party's nomination.

August 20 - Chris Dodd drops out of the race.

August 21 - Ralph Nader decides not to run for president in 2008.

The latest polls:

Democratic Field:
Barack Obama 34% (-1)
John Edwards 32% (+1)
Evan Bayh 8% (+0)
Bill Richardson 6% (+1)
Joe Biden 5% (-1)
Mike Gravel 0% (+0)

Republican Field:
Rudy Giuliani 40% (-4)
John McCain 15% (-1)
Mitt Romney 13% (+1)
Chuck Hagel 6% (+1)
Sam Brownback 3% (+0)
Mike Huckabee 3% (+0)
Duncan Hunter 1% (+0)
Tom Tancredo 1% (+0)
Ron Paul 0% (+0)

Obama 44%
Giuliani 48%

Edwards 47%
Giuliani 47%

September 6 - Another New Hampshire Republican debate, sponsored by Fox News. Giuliani continues to be attacked by many of the other GOP candidates, but refrains from attacking any of them.

September 10 - Hunter drops out.

September 13 - Tancredo drops out.

September 18 - Paul drops out.

October

As the GOP candidates continue to gang up on Giuliani, his numbers in the polls fall. More and more Republican become aware of his liberal positions.

October 2 - Biden drops out.

October 8 - The U.S. Congress passes a bill that if signed will mean the beginning of the U.S.'s withdrawal from Iraq. President Bush vetoes the bill the next day. As a result, his approval rating declines from 33% to 29%.

October 21 - Prime-time televised debate replaces Florida Republican straw poll. Highlights including Giuliani attacking Romney for flip-flopping on the abortion and Hagel's anger over Bush vetoing the withdrawal bill.

November

Richardson's campaign has been gaining momentum. He surpasses Bayh in fundraising.

The latest polls:

Democratic Field:
Barack Obama 39% (+5)
John Edwards 35% (+3)
Bill Richardson 11% (+5)
Evan Bayh 8% (+0)
Mike Gravel 0% (+0)

Republican Field:
Rudy Giuliani 37% (-3)
Mitt Romney 17% (+4)
John McCain 15% (+0)
Chuck Hagel 7% (+1)
Sam Brownback 4% (+1)
Mike Huckabee 3% (+0)

November 14 - Huckabee drops out.

December 5 - Bayh drops out. Bill Clinton says he won't endorse another candidate during the primary for the sake of party unity.

The most recent polls at the New Year:

Democratic Field:
Barack Obama 41% (+2)
John Edwards 36% (+3)
Bill Richardson 13% (+2)
Mike Gravel 1% (+1)

Republican Field:
Rudy Giuliani 36% (-1)
Mitt Romney 20% (+3)
John McCain 13% (-2)
Chuck Hagel 7% (+0)
Sam Brownback 4% (+0)

Obama and Edwards continue to be dead-even in Nevada and New Hampshire. In the last few months, Obama has gained a few points in Iowa to make that state dead-even between him and Edwards as well. Edwards maintains his large lead in South Carolina.

Giuliani has comfortable leads over McCain in Iowa and Nevada. Giuliani also has a comfortable lead in New Hampshire, but Romney now holds second place there and is gaining on Giuliani in that state quickly. Giuliani and McCain are now tied in South Carolina, with Romney not too far behind.

Many pro-life Republicans begin pressuring McCain to drop out of the race so Romney will be able to defeat Giuliani.

[Reignman]

January 14th - Edwards defeats Obama in Iowa by 49% to 43%. Richardson received 8%. Giuliani wins Iowa with 36% and Romney finished a surprising second place finish with 25%. McCain finished third with 23%. Hagel and Brownback finished with 8% each. That night, McCain drops out of the race, but doesn't endorse a candidate in the GOP field.

Polling immediately following the Iowa Caucuses:

Democratic Field:
Barack Obama 39% (+0)
John Edwards 37% (+3)
Bill Richardson 10% (-1)
Mike Gravel 1% (+0)

Republican Field:
Rudy Giuliani 39% (-1)
Mitt Romney 29% (+12)
Chuck Hagel 7% (+1)
Sam Brownback 6% (+2)

Nevada - Edwards leads Obama by 45% to 42%.
New Hampshire - Edwards leads Obama 46% to 42%.
South Carolina - Edwards leads Obama 60% to 35%.

Nevada - Giuliani leads Romney 48% to 30%
New Hampshire - Giuliani leads Romney 47% to 37%
South Carolina - Giuliani leads Romney 38% to 36%

Romney decides to ignore the Nevada Caucuses and begins campaigning exclusively in New Hampshire.

January 19- Edwards defeats Obama in Nevada 48% to 42%. Richardson receives 10%. Giuliani defeats Romney 50% to 34%. Hagel receives 10% and Brownback receives 6%.

Polls show Romney closing in on Giuliani in New Hampshire. Edwards now leads Obama in New Hampshire 47% to 42%.

January 22 - Edwards defeats Obama in New Hampshire 48% to 42%.  Richarson receives 7% and Gravel receives 3%. Giuliani defeats Romney 44% to 42%. Hagel receives 10%. Brownback receives 4%. The fact that Giuliani only defeated Romney by 2% is seen by many as a defeat for him.

That night, Gravel drops out of the race.

The most recent polls at this point:

Democratic Field:
John Edwards 40% (+3)
Barack Obama 38% (-1)
Bill Richardson 9% (-1)

Republican Field:
Rudy Giuliani 38% (-1)
Mitt Romney 32% (+3)
Chuck Hagel 7% (+0)
Sam Brownback 5% (-1)

January 29 - Edwards defeats Obama in South Carolina by a huge margin as expected. The results were 62% for Edwards, 34% for Obama, and 4% for Richardson. Romney defeats Giuliani by a surprising 44% to 38%. Brownback received 10% and Hagel received 8%.

January 30 - Brownback drops out of the race and endorses Romney. Polls show he and Giuliani tied with Republican support at around 37% each.

January 31 - McCain endorses Romney.

Obama and Edwards continue to refrain from negative campaigning and choose instead to draw contrasts between one another while they campaign. Giuliani and Romney however have become extremely negative towards one another.

February 5 - The "National Primary"

(state) - (Dem. winner) , (GOP winner)

Alabama - Obama , Romney
Arizona - Obama , Romney
Arkansas - Edwards , Romney
California - Obama , Giuliani
Delaware - Edwards , Giuliani
Idaho - Edwards , Romney
Missouri - Edwards , Romney
New Jersey - Obama , Giuliani
New Mexico - Richardson , Giuliani
North Carolina - Edwards , Romney
North Dakota - Edwards , Romney
Oklahoma - Edwards , Giuliani
Pennsylvania - Edwards , Giuliani
Utah - Edwards , Romney

Edwards won slightly more delegates than Obama and maintains his lead in the delegate count. Edwards quickly points out that he did well in states that Democrats need to win the in the general election, while Obama did well in states the Democrats are expected to win easily. Obama counters that these primaries only show how well candidates do with party members, and that Edwards is much more liberal than he is.

Giuliani did not do as well as anticipated and Romney quickly capitalizes on the fact that he won more states. However, because California awards all of its delegates to the winner, Giuliani won more delegates and maintains a healthy lead over Romney in delegates. Giuliani uses Edwards' argument that he did well in states his party must win in the general election.

That night, Richardson drops out of the race and says he will not endorse either Edwards or Obama until the general election is over. Some pundits see this as an attempt by him to increase his chances of getting the veep spot on the Democratic ticket. Hagel also drops out and says he will not endorse either Giuliani or Romney until the nominee is determined. He also says he is not particularly interested in being vice president.

Democratic Field:
John Edwards 45% (+5)
Barack Obama 43% (+5)
Undecided 12%

Republican Field:
Mitt Romney 42% (+10)
Rudy Giuliani 37% (-1)
Undecided 21%

February 12 - Edwards wins Tennessee and Virginia. Obama wins DC. Romney wins Tennessee and Virginia. Giuliani wins DC.

February 19 - Edwards and Giuliani win in Wisconsin.

February 26 - Obama and Giuliani win in Hawaii.

March 4 - Original Super Tuesday

Connecticut - Obama , Giuliani
Georgia - Edwards , Romney
Maine - Edwards , Romney
Maryland - Edwards , Giuliani
Massachusetts - Edwards , Romney
New York - Edwards , Giuliani
Ohio - Edwards , Romney
Rhode Island - Edwards , Romney
Vermont - Edwards , Romney

Due to his poor performance, Obama drops out of the race. Edwards will go on to win all subsequent primaries except for Illinois.

2008 Democratic Primary Results

Image Link

Red - Edwards
Blue - Obama
Green - Richardson

Giuliani's delegate lead narrows.

Most recent GOP nomination poll:

Mitt Romney 43% (+1)
Rudy Giuliani  37% (+0)
Undecided 20% (-1)

Some political pundits are wondering if Giuliani could win the nomination even though nationally more Republicans want Romney as a candidate than Giuliani.

March 6 - Romney wins Michigan
March 7 - Romney wins Colorado
March 8 - Romney wins Kansas
March 11 - Romney wins Florida and Louisiana

Romney and Giuliani are now tied for delegates, but Romney now leads Giuliani 48% to 37% in the polls. Giuliani says he will drop out if he does not win in Illinois (where he trails by 1-3 points).

March 18 - Romney wins Illinois and Oregon

Giuliani drops out. Romney wins all subsequent primaries.

2008 Republican Primary Results

Image Link

Red - Romney
Blue - Giuliani

The matchup in officially Edwards vs. Romney starting March 18.

The most recent Edwards vs. Romney polls show:

Edwards 48
Romney 44
Undecided 8

Image Link

Dark Blue - Safe Edwards
Medium Blue - Edwards leads, but competitive
Light Blue - Leaning towards Edwards
Yellow - Tossup
Light Red - Leaning towards Romney
Medium Red - Romney leads, but competitive
Dark Red - Safe Romney

[Reignman]

I'm planning on writing more on this later, but I can't think of much else to write.

[SPC]

Good timeline. It's funny how inaccurate things can be when you extrapolate from a certain point.

[Reignman]

Good timeline. It's funny how inaccurate things can be when you extrapolate from a certain point.

Uh...you mean different?

[SPC]

Good timeline. It's funny how inaccurate things can be when you extrapolate from a certain point.

Uh...you mean different?

Yeah.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I liked this timeline. Primarily because, there was no Hillary.

Reignman, please continue atleast to the 2008 Election between Edwards and Romney.

[Reignman]

I liked this timeline. Primarily because, there was no Hillary.

Reignman, please continue atleast to the 2008 Election between Edwards and Romney.

Aight. I, um, might be a couple days.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I liked this timeline. Primarily because, there was no Hillary.

Reignman, please continue atleast to the 2008 Election between Edwards and Romney.

Aight. I, um, might be a couple days.

That's the sprit. Question, what's happening to Senator Rick Lazio? If Romney loses to Edwards in 2008, is Lazio considered a frontrunner for the 2012 GOP Nomination?

[Reignman]

I don't really know what Rick Lazio is up to, but I don't think he'd ever run for president, even in this timeline.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see any way Lazio could've possibly been reelected in 2006. He would've done worse than DeWine, in my view, losing by a wider margin than anyone except Santorum (also remember Spitzer's coattails)

[Reignman]

Shrug.

[Reignman]

March 19 - Only one day after the match-up between Edwards and Romney began, Edwards goes on the offensive by attacking Romney's support for the Iraq War while campaigning in Pennsylvania.

March 20 - While campaigning in Iowa, Romney fires back by calling Edwards an "extremist."

From March to August, the candidates continue to attack one another repeatedly. Media coverage of the campaign remains high throughout the entire period. More and more voices call for reform in the party nominating process, recalling the days when the presidential campaign didn't really start up until Labor Day. Both the Democratic and Republican parties are raising and spending exorbitant amounts of money for the campaign. Both Edwards and Romney campaign in states that are not considered competitive (Edwards in the South and Romney in the Northeast), but this has little effect on the polls.

March 31 - After months of debate, President Bush passes a bill to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq. However, only 40,000 troops are to be withdrawn over the next few months, and the bill includes no timetables.

Throughout March and April, Edwards concentrates on the issue of the Iraq War and manages to build on his lead in the polls. By late April, most polls have him at 47%, while Romney has 42%, with 11% undecided.

April 7 - Citing the country's dissatisfaction with the major party nominees, Mike Bloomberg announces he will run for President as an independent. He spends April and May gathering support and getting his name on state's ballots for President. He also begins spending large amounts of his personal wealth for the campaign and says he is willing to spend a total of $500 million on his campaign.

April 10 - Hagel ends media speculation that he will join Bloomberg by officially declaring he will not run with Bloomberg. Hagel has still not endorsed Romney, however.

By the end of April, he has already gotten on many state ballots, and is gaining support among the electorate. Most of his support comes from conservatives, but Bloomberg repeatedly brushes off the idea that he is a spoiler, claiming that most of his supporters would not want to vote for Romney. Romney claims that Bloomberg is a "liberal."

Bloomberg says he is committed to a gradual withdrawal from Iraq, but not as rapid as Edwards' proposal. He also says he agrees with the President's decision to invade Iraq, although he admits that the war has been mismanaged.

Polling from the first week of May:

Edwards 45%
Romney 37%
Bloomberg 9%

Undecided 9%

May 26 - Steve Kubby receives the Libertarian Party's nomination for President.

By this time, Bloomberg has successfully gotten on most state ballots, and it is clear he will have get on every state ballot for the election. He enjoys most of his support in western states.

[Reignman]

Will post more in a couple days. I started out with a general idea of what would happen, but now I'm making it up as I go along.