oklahoma 2004

[WalterMitty]

what the hell happened?  i can understand kerry losing by 30+ points, but why did he lose every county?

even mondale won a few oklahoma counties.  mike dukakis won more than a few, probably thanks to bentsen.

why did kerry get 'mcgoverned'?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Oklahoma is in a big flux after the uber safe Republican state government was destroyed by scandal, they elected a Democrat Governor, and have been varying extremes from one election to the next, still solidly Republican nationally, and that L word really turns them off.

[StateBoiler]

The bigger story under Oklahoma 2004 is how a no-name gadfly Republican managed to get 10% in a primary against George W. Bush.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Kerry was just a horrible candidate.

Don't expect the same thing in 2008, though!!  Expect a much more competitive state.

[RBH]

The bigger story under Oklahoma 2004 is how a no-name gadfly Republican managed to get 10% in a primary against George W. Bush.

Getting 10% in a two candidate race really doesn't mean a lot.

[memphis]

Kerry was just a horrible candidate.

Don't expect the same thing in 2008, though!!  Expect a much more competitive state.

Kerry was an ok candidate. Not great, for sure, but he did almost defeat a sitting president in the middle of a war, albeit a minor one. The counties that Mondale and Dukakis won were in Litte Dixie, which like Dixie as a whole has continued to swing hard to the GOP. Many of the old hardcore FDR folks that still voted Dem in the 80s are now dead. Oklahoma will not be even remotely competitive in 2008, primarily because its two urban counties, Oklahoma and Tulsa, are Republican strongholds.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Kerry was just a horrible candidate.

Don't expect the same thing in 2008, though!!  Expect a much more competitive state.

Kerry was an ok candidate. Not great, for sure, but he did almost defeat a sitting president in the middle of a war, albeit a minor one. The counties that Mondale and Dukakis won were in Litte Dixie, which like Dixie as a whole has continued to swing hard to the GOP. Many of the old hardcore FDR folks that still voted Dem in the 80s are now dead. Oklahoma will not be even remotely competitive in 2008, primarily because its two urban counties, Oklahoma and Tulsa, are Republican strongholds.

Do you guys think I know nothing about Oklahoma politics?  Why don't you believe an Okie about Oklahoma politics.  Trust me, OKLAHOMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN 2008!!!!!!!!  You don't believe that Oklahoma is trending Democrat.  You don't believe me, which means you must think the Democrats or Republicans should NEVER spend time here or focus on our needs.

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

[Gabu]

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

No offense, but in the hundred years since Oklahoma has been a state, I don't think there's ever been a single election in which Oklahoma's electoral votes were crucial to victory and were not simply taken for granted or ignored.

[WalterMitty]

Trust me, OKLAHOMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN 2008!!!!!!!! 

lolz

[Joe Biden 2020]

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

No offense, but in the hundred years since Oklahoma has been a state, I don't think there's ever been a single election in which Oklahoma's electoral votes were crucial to victory and were not simply taken for granted or ignored.

So, are our needs just as important as New Yorkers needs or Californian needs or are our people just little insignificant stupid peons.

[Rob]

The counties that Mondale and Dukakis won were in Litte Dixie, which like Dixie as a whole has continued to swing hard to the GOP. Many of the old hardcore FDR folks that still voted Dem in the 80s are now dead.

Not really... those counties are still ferociously Democratic on every level. Coburn didn't crack 40 percent in many of them. There really is no excuse for Kerry's utter drubbing.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The counties that Mondale and Dukakis won were in Litte Dixie, which like Dixie as a whole has continued to swing hard to the GOP. Many of the old hardcore FDR folks that still voted Dem in the 80s are now dead.

Not really... those counties are still ferociously Democratic on every level. Coburn didn't crack 40 percent in many of them. There really is no excuse for Kerry's utter drubbing.

Exactly...  Thank you for somebody actually helping me make my point.

[KEmperor]

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

No offense, but in the hundred years since Oklahoma has been a state, I don't think there's ever been a single election in which Oklahoma's electoral votes were crucial to victory and were not simply taken for granted or ignored.

So, are our needs just as important as New Yorkers needs or Californian needs or are our people just little insignificant stupid peons.

New York and California weren't exactly competitive in the last few elections either.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

No offense, but in the hundred years since Oklahoma has been a state, I don't think there's ever been a single election in which Oklahoma's electoral votes were crucial to victory and were not simply taken for granted or ignored.

So, are our needs just as important as New Yorkers needs or Californian needs or are our people just little insignificant stupid peons.

New York and California weren't exactly competitive in the last few elections either.

You're right, I should have said states like Florida and Ohio.  How about their needs versus the needs of Oklahomans?

[Gabu]

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

No offense, but in the hundred years since Oklahoma has been a state, I don't think there's ever been a single election in which Oklahoma's electoral votes were crucial to victory and were not simply taken for granted or ignored.

So, are our needs just as important as New Yorkers needs or Californian needs or are our people just little insignificant stupid peons.

You asked: are Oklahoma's electoral votes vital and crucial?

I responded: there has never been an election where they were.

This is, as far as I know, just a fact.  I was simply answering your question truthfully.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

No offense, but in the hundred years since Oklahoma has been a state, I don't think there's ever been a single election in which Oklahoma's electoral votes were crucial to victory and were not simply taken for granted or ignored.

So, are our needs just as important as New Yorkers needs or Californian needs or are our people just little insignificant stupid peons.

You asked: are Oklahoma's electoral votes vital and crucial?

I responded: there has never been an election where they were.

This is, as far as I know, just a fact.  I was simply answering your question truthfully.

I know, Gabu, but I'm just tired of people not giving Oklahoma any respect politically.  I was just speaking out of frustration.

[Aizen]

Do you guys think I know nothing about Oklahoma politics?  Why don't you believe an Okie about Oklahoma politics.  Trust me, OKLAHOMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN 2008!!!!!!!!  You don't believe that Oklahoma is trending Democrat.  You don't believe me, which means you must think the Democrats or Republicans should NEVER spend time here or focus on our needs.

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

Oklahoma was the fifth most conservative state in 2004. Oklahoma was 60-38 in 2000 but 65-34 in 2004. The only thing Oklahoma is trending is more conservative. Yes, Democrats or Republicans shound't spend thier time there because it is a lock to go to the Republicans.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Do you guys think I know nothing about Oklahoma politics?  Why don't you believe an Okie about Oklahoma politics.  Trust me, OKLAHOMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN 2008!!!!!!!!  You don't believe that Oklahoma is trending Democrat.  You don't believe me, which means you must think the Democrats or Republicans should NEVER spend time here or focus on our needs.

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

Oklahoma was the fifth most conservative state in 2004. Oklahoma was 60-38 in 2000 but 65-34 in 2004. The only thing Oklahoma is trending is more conservative. Yes, Democrats or Republicans shound't spend thier time there because it is a lock to go to the Republicans.

So, if they don't visit us, how will they find out what we need from the lips of Oklahomans.  Are our needs not as important as the needs of Ohio or Florida?

[memphis]

Do you guys think I know nothing about Oklahoma politics?  Why don't you believe an Okie about Oklahoma politics.  Trust me, OKLAHOMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN 2008!!!!!!!!  You don't believe that Oklahoma is trending Democrat.  You don't believe me, which means you must think the Democrats or Republicans should NEVER spend time here or focus on our needs.

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

Oklahoma was the fifth most conservative state in 2004. Oklahoma was 60-38 in 2000 but 65-34 in 2004. The only thing Oklahoma is trending is more conservative. Yes, Democrats or Republicans shound't spend thier time there because it is a lock to go to the Republicans.

So, if they don't visit us, how will they find out what we need from the lips of Oklahomans.  Are our needs not as important as the needs of Ohio or Florida?

You have some beef with the winner take all Electoral College system, which is totally legitimate. On a human level, of course a person from one state is just as important as a person from another state. However, candidates for president have to campaign where it will likely make a difference in their EC vote total, and under the current system, that is in large swing states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.  If you don't like this work to change the EC. Oklahoma, like my state of Tennessee, can in fact welcome Democrats at the local or statewide level. However, this never happens in presidential races anymore. Bush did 15 points better in OK than nationwide in 04 after doing 13 points better there than nationwide in 2000. In 1996 Dole did just 8 points better there than nationwide, and in 1992 Bush Sr. did only 5 points better in OK than nationwide. These are not the patterns of an increasingly competitive state.

[KEmperor]

Do you guys think I know nothing about Oklahoma politics?  Why don't you believe an Okie about Oklahoma politics.  Trust me, OKLAHOMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN 2008!!!!!!!!  You don't believe that Oklahoma is trending Democrat.  You don't believe me, which means you must think the Democrats or Republicans should NEVER spend time here or focus on our needs.

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

Oklahoma was the fifth most conservative state in 2004. Oklahoma was 60-38 in 2000 but 65-34 in 2004. The only thing Oklahoma is trending is more conservative. Yes, Democrats or Republicans shound't spend thier time there because it is a lock to go to the Republicans.

So, if they don't visit us, how will they find out what we need from the lips of Oklahomans.  Are our needs not as important as the needs of Ohio or Florida?

You have some beef with the winner take all Electoral College system, which is totally legitimate. On a human level, of course a person from one state is just as important as a person from another state. However, candidates for president have to campaign where it will likely make a difference in their EC vote total, and under the current system, that is in large swing states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.  If you don't like this work to change the EC. Oklahoma, like my state of Tennessee, can in fact welcome Democrats at the local or statewide level. However, this never happens in presidential races anymore. Bush did 15 points better in OK than nationwide in 04 after doing 13 points better there than nationwide in 2000. In 1996 Dole did just 8 points better there than nationwide, and in 1992 Bush Sr. did only 5 points better in OK than nationwide. These are not the patterns of an increasingly competitive state.

Oklahoma isn't populated enough that it would be a major campaign target without the EC system either. 

[Joe Biden 2020]

Do you guys think I know nothing about Oklahoma politics?  Why don't you believe an Okie about Oklahoma politics.  Trust me, OKLAHOMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN 2008!!!!!!!!  You don't believe that Oklahoma is trending Democrat.  You don't believe me, which means you must think the Democrats or Republicans should NEVER spend time here or focus on our needs.

Do you think our 7 Electoral Votes are very vital and crucial, or are they insignificant?

Oklahoma was the fifth most conservative state in 2004. Oklahoma was 60-38 in 2000 but 65-34 in 2004. The only thing Oklahoma is trending is more conservative. Yes, Democrats or Republicans shound't spend thier time there because it is a lock to go to the Republicans.

So, if they don't visit us, how will they find out what we need from the lips of Oklahomans.  Are our needs not as important as the needs of Ohio or Florida?

You have some beef with the winner take all Electoral College system, which is totally legitimate. On a human level, of course a person from one state is just as important as a person from another state. However, candidates for president have to campaign where it will likely make a difference in their EC vote total, and under the current system, that is in large swing states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.  If you don't like this work to change the EC. Oklahoma, like my state of Tennessee, can in fact welcome Democrats at the local or statewide level. However, this never happens in presidential races anymore. Bush did 15 points better in OK than nationwide in 04 after doing 13 points better there than nationwide in 2000. In 1996 Dole did just 8 points better there than nationwide, and in 1992 Bush Sr. did only 5 points better in OK than nationwide. These are not the patterns of an increasingly competitive state.

Hey, guys, in some respect, I'm just playing games with you, acting like I'm getting all bent out of shape for something thats unlikely to occur, not saying impossible, but unlikely.

I understand strategy, and I do like the winner-take-all EC.  I just want the needs of all Americans to be represented in a campaign, as best as a candidate can.  I know it is impossible to get to every county, or even every big city in the country during a short election campaign (face it 9 months from February-November is a very short time, unless you're an expectant mother).  I will relent and say that on paper it looks as though Oklahoma is trending more conservative, but I'm going off of gut instinct more than anything.  I don't have any actual proof, but I just have that feeling that we will not be blood red for much longer.  I think the Republican candidate will probably win Oklahoma, but they will get between 53-57% of the vote, not 60-65% as has been in 2000 and 2004.  I can see the Democrats winning about 10-20 of our 77 counties, mainly in eastern and southeastern Oklahoma.  Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Norman, and Lawton, our four biggest cities, and their respective counties will go Republican.  Somewhere between 10-20 counties will go blue, and thus that will bring down the Republican's numbers.

[Gabu]

I know, Gabu, but I'm just tired of people not giving Oklahoma any respect politically.  I was just speaking out of frustration.

Well, blame the voters or the electoral college, basically.  While I'd like to believe the idea that Oklahoma will be a swing state in 2008... well, just look at its electoral history since 1960 compared to the national popular vote:

2004: +28.68% R
2000: +22.39% R
1996: +16.32% R
1992: +14.19% R
1988: +8.93% R
1984: +19.73% R
1980: +15.79% R
1976: +3.27% R
1972: +26.55% R
1968: +14.99% R
1964: +11.08% R
1960: +18.21% R

There have only been two elections since 1960 in which Oklahoma was not over 10% more Republican than the national average.  As things stand right now, the Democrat would need to win the popular vote by 15-20% to have a chance in Oklahoma.  Unless Oklahomans decide to change that sometime soon, Oklahoma will unfortunately always be politically irrelevant (no offense) in national elections that use the electoral college.

[KEmperor]

I know, Gabu, but I'm just tired of people not giving Oklahoma any respect politically.  I was just speaking out of frustration.

Well, blame the voters or the electoral college, basically.  While I'd like to believe the idea that Oklahoma will be a swing state in 2008... well, just look at its electoral history since 1960 compared to the national popular vote:

2004: +28.68% R
2000: +22.39% R
1996: +16.32% R
1992: +14.19% R
1988: +8.93% R
1984: +19.73% R
1980: +15.79% R
1976: +3.27% R
1972: +26.55% R
1968: +14.99% R
1964: +11.08% R
1960: +18.21% R

There have only been two elections since 1960 in which Oklahoma was not over 10% more Republican than the national average.  As things stand right now, the Democrat would need to win the popular vote by 15-20% to have a chance in Oklahoma.  Unless Oklahomans decide to change that sometime soon, Oklahoma will unfortunately always be politically irrelevant (no offense) in national elections that use the electoral college.

It's not even about the electoral college.  There would be no point in campaigning in a scarcely populated solidly Republican state even with a nationwide popular vote.

[memphis]

I know, Gabu, but I'm just tired of people not giving Oklahoma any respect politically.  I was just speaking out of frustration.

Well, blame the voters or the electoral college, basically.  While I'd like to believe the idea that Oklahoma will be a swing state in 2008... well, just look at its electoral history since 1960 compared to the national popular vote:

2004: +28.68% R
2000: +22.39% R
1996: +16.32% R
1992: +14.19% R
1988: +8.93% R
1984: +19.73% R
1980: +15.79% R
1976: +3.27% R
1972: +26.55% R
1968: +14.99% R
1964: +11.08% R
1960: +18.21% R

There have only been two elections since 1960 in which Oklahoma was not over 10% more Republican than the national average.  As things stand right now, the Democrat would need to win the popular vote by 15-20% to have a chance in Oklahoma.  Unless Oklahomans decide to change that sometime soon, Oklahoma will unfortunately always be politically irrelevant (no offense) in national elections that use the electoral college.

It's not even about the electoral college.  There would be no point in campaigning in a scarcely populated solidly Republican state even with a nationwide popular vote.

With a nationwide popular vote, candidates would probably buy some tv spots in OKC and Tulsa markets. They're not really big cities, but this means the spots wouldn't be as expensive as in NYC and candidates would want to encourage people to vote. From Oklahoma's perspective, it would be a slight improvement over currently being ignored entirely.

[Gabu]

Oklahoma had the biggest swing to dukakis in 1988

Yeah, 1988, where Bush won by "only" 17%.  Of course it had a big swing to the Democrat - there's nowhere to go but up after Mondale lost the state by 38%.

There were only two Democrats since 1960 who had a chance in Oklahoma: Johnson and Carter.  Johnson was a Southern Democrat who won in a ridiculous landslide, and Carter was a "moral values" Christian Democrat from the Deep South.  Neither is terribly likely to occur in 2008 - thus, I see no reason to expect Oklahoma to be close.  That's really just how it is.