Who jumps?

[CPT MikeyMike]

Suppose 2006 turns out differently. I have two situations that I would like to discuss.

1. In the '06 Senate election, all seats play out as is except Lincoln Chafee win in Rhode Island to give the Senate majority to the GOP (with VP Cheney breaking the 50-50 tie). With Chafee known as a RINO and with the current situation in Iraq, would Chafee switch parties either by his own free will or influence from the Democrats?

2. Instead of Chafee winning, George Allen never makes his slur and wins by a huge margin (again 50-50 tie). Do the Democrats try to influence another Republican to pull a Jim Jeffords? Such as Chuck Hagel or Susan Collins?

Please discuss both situations.

[Adlai Stevenson]

1. I think Chafee would switch in that scenario.

2. I am really not sure.  I thought that Arlen Specter could be a potential switcher but I do not know.  I think if the Democrats worked very hard at it then Specter, Collins and Snowe could all be potential party-switchers. 

[Gabu]

I recall Chafee saying that he felt that it was probably for the better that the Democrats won Congress, so I have a feeling he might switch.

As for the others, Specter, Collins, and Snowe are both moderate, but still vote with the GOP over 50% of the time, and Hagel... no.  It'd be the Democratic equivalent of a Lieberman switch.

[JSojourner]

Gab is right.  Hagel going D would be akin to Lieberman going R.  Each guy has basically one beef with his party.  Lieberman supports the Decider's war in Iraq (enthusiastically) and Hagel opposes it.

On nearly all other issues, the two are pretty much in lock step with their parties.  I can't imagine them switching.

Chafee could.  And might yet, though it would have no impact on the Senate any longer.

I think the person to watch is Olympia Snowe.  More than Specter, Collins, Gordon Smith or any other Republican Senator -- she would fit with Democrats.  Even so, she'd be a social liberal and a fiscal moderate. A lot like Jim Jeffords.

I don't think there will be any significant party switching unless there is some huge scandal that brings down this administration.