Australia 2007

[Verily]

I heard from a friend that Howard was set to call it last weekend, but he got some nasty internal polling... basically the only things that were going right for him.... started to go bad.

A lot of Liberals are angry that Howard is delaying this - and it is delay. If he's waiting for poll numbers to improve... he's never going to go.


John... it's time.

Might enough Liberals in vulnerable seats revolt and force an immediate election?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think if he doesn't call it by this weekend - since Parliament to due to sit again from the 15th - the pressure will be extreme. I honestly don't think Howard is going to let question time turn into the "What are you afraid of Prime Minister?" hour. Which is why I think he HAS to call this coming weekend.

After that, the question is whether it'll be the short campaign - or the longer - Nov 17 or Nov 24.

[minionofmidas]

When would they have to call the election by the latest?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When would they have to call the election by the latest?

December IIRC

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He would never do that. The guaranteed way to lose is to  up someone's summer holiday plans.

He said the election will be before early December... which leaves only three viable dates - Nov 17 (which would mean a shorter campaign... which makes little sense), Nov 24 or Dec 1. I doubt he goes in December - So it leaves Nov 17 or 24.

[Verily]

When would they have to call the election by the latest?

December IIRC

I'm pretty sure he could theoretically go into January somewhat, though Howard himself has ruled that out.

Btw, I was completely thrown for a moment by "summer plans" before remembering that it's spring in Australia right now, not autumn.

[Platypus]

Well the odds of the election being called before next Monday are at $1.20, so I'm pretty sure it'll happen.

Meanwhile, Anna Bligh faced her first question time today and did OK; although she had a slight slip up when she referred to 'the Premier' and didn't mean herself

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Look what Kevin Rudd done this time. He cleared a speech for his Foreign Minister to make on banning Capital Punishment in South East Asia. Or should I say a coalition to help stop Capital Punishment in South East Asia. The minister made the speech and Rudd came out firing at his minister by calling is perposturious (or something like that). Then late afternoon yesterday, Rudd admitted it was his idea all along.

I wouldn't be surprised if Johnny calls the Election this weekend for November 24. I thought he would have called it last week, the joy of not knowing when the election will be called.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I was really really annoyed with Rudd on this one.

I had a school friend involved in the Bali bombings... and I did everthing I could to put pressure on the Government to not push for the Death Penalty. Firstly, what does is solve? Secondly give them martyrdom... go ahead.

[Platypus]

Krudd screwed up, but anyway...


There is a real feel that the election is about to be called. here on campus it is absolutely buzzing. No chance of me studying for my exams

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I've heard that Prime Minister Howard is expected to make a visit to Yarralumba tomorrow to finally call the 2007 Australian Federal Election for November 24.

Prime Minister Howard yesterday released a booklet listing his Government's achievements and outlining five areas it would concentrate on if re-elected. It was similar to Ronald Reagan's 1984 comments "What kind of country do we want? We want a strong, prosperous, and secure America." Instead of saying America, PM Howard ofcourse said Australia.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

John Howard is with the Governor General as we speak.

[Platypus]

Election is go: 24th of November. Rolls close October 20th.

[ag]

Well, here we go...

I am really going to be watching this one.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

The Campaign is now underway. After how many months of waiting Watch Howard's numbers rise in the coming 6 weeks. It will be a closer election than many people think.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Mungo MacCallum's article on the Liberals and Leadership in The Monthly was was really good. Frankly Howard today displayed it's key argument. He kept pressing the team, the team... but as the article right displayed was that once a Liberal Leader is no longer the clear ruler of the party - it has nowhere to go but down.

The numbers have nowhere to go but up, and they will close up. At the moment I'm predicting a 53/47 TPP - roughly winning 22 seats, about 7 seat majority.

[Platypus]

I reckon the ALP will gain 10 seats without any trouble, the 16 is roughly even and over 20 is unlikely.

[Harry Hayfield]

According to an election calculator (yes, one exists!) the most recent poll that gave Labor 59% Coalition 41% would suggest:

Labor 119
Coalition 31

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

According to an election calculator (yes, one exists!) the most recent poll that gave Labor 59% Coalition 41% would suggest:

Labor 119
Coalition 31

I can't begin to tell you how unlikely that result is. I know - I found the calc about a month ago.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

According to an election calculator (yes, one exists!) the most recent poll that gave Labor 59% Coalition 41% would suggest:

Labor 119
Coalition 31

I can't begin to tell you how unlikely that result is. I know - I found the calc about a month ago.

But that's pretty much what the polls have been saying since forever from what I've followed. While the Lib-Nat may have a tradition of gaining; do they also have a tradition of being more 10 points down in the polls?

[Verily]

According to an election calculator (yes, one exists!) the most recent poll that gave Labor 59% Coalition 41% would suggest:

Labor 119
Coalition 31

I can't begin to tell you how unlikely that result is. I know - I found the calc about a month ago.

But that's pretty much what the polls have been saying since forever from what I've followed. While the Lib-Nat may have a tradition of gaining; do they also have a tradition of being more 10 points down in the polls?

In 2004, Labor led by 2 points at the beginning of the campaign. At no point over the course of the campaign did Labor exceed 52% in the polls, including immediately after Latham's major debate victory. In 2001, the Coalition led the polls throughout the campaign. In 1998, Labor led the Coalition initially, but the election was heavily influenced by One Nation, most of whose voters second-preferenced the Coalition, and the argument can certainly be made that the volatility introduced by One Nation made polls useless.

[Silent Hunter]

Can we safely say that Howard is going to get thrashed from Sydney to Ottawa?

[Democratic Hawk]

I gather from right-wing cheerleaders in the British media, that Howard  has been wonderful for the Australian economy and on cutting taxes, so where has it all gone wrong for him? Given that the polls do suggest he's on his way out. That's no guarantee he, is of course

Dave

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Can we safely say that Howard is going to get thrashed from Sydney to Ottawa?

As much as people would like to believe that John Howard and the Liberal party will be smashed this November it won't happen. The polls won't matter until the final week of the Election campaign when it will be down to the wire. Even Kevin Rudd believes it will be down to the wire, even though the ALP is currently leading by 16 points over the Liberal/National Coalition on 2 party prefered.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I gather from right-wing cheerleaders in the British media, that Howard  has been wonderful for the Australian economy and on cutting taxes, so where has it all gone wrong for him? Given that the polls do suggest he's on his way out. That's no guarantee he, is of course

Dave

To be honest, the electorate have been waiting a while to get rid of him. Yes, the economy has done well under him, but as a whole people think Howard has damaged other elements of Australia's society. Unfortunately for him, he's fallen into the trap of people who do their jobs too well, people believe things will carry on regardless of their presence - Polls suggest people this.

Also the government is well behind the people on climate change, Iraq (even though it's not a major issue), social values etc etc.

But the absolute killer for Howard was his industrial relations reforms - many people saw Howard after that as they hadn't before - ideological and fanatical. They don't him like that. The sizeable number in polls suggest that while they might not be worse off, they think the policy does affect too many people in a negative fashion. Plus 11 1/2 years is a long time.

According to an election calculator (yes, one exists!) the most recent poll that gave Labor 59% Coalition 41% would suggest:

Labor 119
Coalition 31

I can't begin to tell you how unlikely that result is. I know - I found the calc about a month ago.

But that's pretty much what the polls have been saying since forever from what I've followed. While the Lib-Nat may have a tradition of gaining; do they also have a tradition of being more 10 points down in the polls?

Put it this way, if the results on election night reflect the average of recent polls which is 56-44. Then it would be a landslide on par with 1975 when Labor was almost wiped out. The best Labor has ever done was 53-47 in 1983... frankly I think that's the neighbourhood it will end up being.

What is comes down to is that people aren't angry with Howard... they're bored with him. Labor is finally showing itself as a viable alternatative and people are flocking.

I will say that if the polls stay the same during the campaign then a 56-44 is possible...