Australia 2007

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Alsio, a good newspoll for the coalition today, 53-47 ALP.

I almost forgot about that. Apparently according the the Newspoll poll, the ALP is leading the Libs 53-47% in South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. The ALP is also expected to gain anywhere between 8 and 22 seats this November 24.

[Verily]

An interesting graph:

[Robespierre's Jaw]

An interesting graph:

Where did you find this graph Verily?

[Verily]

http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Recent polls: ALP 54% (Galaxy) and ALP 53% (Newspoll). ALP primary vote 47% in the latter, not sure about the former.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Most people I'm speaking to suggest that Newspoll is not indicative - ACNielsen/Galaxy are much closer to internal polling - people on both sides insist that Labor was never 18 points ahead - the race has been locked 54/55 - 46/45 for most of the last year.

The primary vote for both parties being in the solid 40s - Lib 43 Lab 47 does seem to me that minor parties will be sideliners in this election in the house. The senate is a different story.

If Labor can maintain a 46-48 primary vote range - they're winning, and winning enough seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some outfit called EMRS has done a poll of Tasmania:

Denison: ALP 70%
Franklin: ALP 59%
Lyons: ALP 58%
Bass: ALP 55% (with the Greenies doing very well on primary votes; due to the whole pulp mill thing)
Braddon: ALP 52%

59% for Tasmania as a whole.

Poll was conducted between 1st and 6th of November.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Braddon was always going to be v.close - since the Pulp Mill will be in Bass.

I'm not sure who this polling group is, but interesting nonetheless.

[Platypus]

I'd be very interested to see a breakdown of the senate voting intentions-possibility of 4 ALP, 1 Liberal and 1 Green?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newspoll: 55/45...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No huge shock - Howard can't claim credit when Interest rates are down - then distance himself when they go up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I just want the bloody thing to be over.

I think that's a very common feeling around the traps at the moment.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I just want the bloody thing to be over.

Only 9 more days until the me-tooism is over!!

I do find it funny that the Liberals and the ALP "launched" their campaigns officially this week. When there's about half a week left in the campaign. And we tax payers had to pay for it too.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What's interesting is where Howard's been in the last two weeks.

He's only been to WA for the funeral of an SAS soldier- spent 4 days in VIC, two days in W.Sydney, Robertson, Darwin, his own seat and QLD. Not one day in Sth Australia or Tasmania. Let alone any other key marginals.

The average margin of coalition seats he's been visiting is around 6.5% - which is line with what I'm hearing.

EDIT: I've just realised Howard hasn't set foot in Tasmania during the entire campaign so far.

[StateBoiler]

I just want the bloody thing to be over.

I think that's a very common feeling around the traps at the moment.

Oh come on, you guys are going through nothing. Over here, we've been in election mode for six months and have another 12 months to go!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I just want the bloody thing to be over.

I think that's a very common feeling around the traps at the moment.

Oh come on, you guys are going through nothing. Over here, we've been in election mode for six months and have another 12 months to go!

We've been in faux-election mode since January.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I just want the bloody thing to be over.

I think that's a very common feeling around the traps at the moment.

Oh come on, you guys are going through nothing. Over here, we've been in election mode for six months and have another 12 months to go!

We've been in faux-election mode since January.

And the bloody thing will be over next weekend.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some outfit called EMRS has done a poll of Tasmania:

Denison: ALP 70%
Franklin: ALP 59%
Lyons: ALP 58%
Bass: ALP 55% (with the Greenies doing very well on primary votes; due to the whole pulp mill thing)
Braddon: ALP 52%

59% for Tasmania as a whole.

Poll was conducted between 1st and 6th of November.

They've done another one.

The only numbers that we've got for now is for Bass; ALP 52%. Nothing for the other seats seems to have been published yet, but by the sound of it Bass is the only one that's even slightly close.

More details when they can be found.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Some outfit called EMRS has done a poll of Tasmania:

Denison: ALP 70%
Franklin: ALP 59%
Lyons: ALP 58%
Bass: ALP 55% (with the Greenies doing very well on primary votes; due to the whole pulp mill thing)
Braddon: ALP 52%

59% for Tasmania as a whole.

Poll was conducted between 1st and 6th of November.

They've done another one.

The only numbers that we've got for now is for Bass; ALP 52%. Nothing for the other seats seems to have been published yet, but by the sound of it Bass is the only one that's even slightly close.

More details when they can be found.

Really? Because from what I've read the Liberals have pretty much conceeded Bass already (not sure on Braddon though.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Really? Because from what I've read the Liberals have pretty much conceeded Bass already (not sure on Braddon though.)

Being down 52/48 with about a week to go and with very little hope of outside help is pretty much dead. Not quite, but almost.

The collapse of the Mersey hospital bribe may have damaged the Liberals in Braddon.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Really? Because from what I've read the Liberals have pretty much conceeded Bass already (not sure on Braddon though.)

Being down 52/48 with about a week to go and with very little hope of outside help is pretty much dead. Not quite, but almost.

The collapse of the Mersey hospital bribe may have damaged the Liberals in Braddon.

Well if that is the case (and let's not forget Australia's compulsory voting system may leave alot of "undecideds") then the Liberals really are in serious, serious trouble. Not that that is a bad thing or anything from my point of view.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One thing that's been interesting is the primary vote breakdown from some of the polls.

In a national poll - Labor and the Coalition had 90% of the primary vote between them - which would be the first time that has happened in a LONG time. But in the marginal seat poll which came out yesterday it has the Labor and Coalition virtually tied with about 85% of the PV but the Greens with 11% - giving Labor the wins. Which is telling - the seat by seat campaign being waged by the coalition is actually having the effect the Libs want making these seats competitive, forcing the ALP to start looking at seats with 5-10% margins... the problem is, it seems to have backfired.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like 52% in Bass, 56% in Braddon, 64% in Denison, over 60% in Franklin (but can't work out what last number be) and 61% in Lyons.

[Verily]

I think that's 65% in Franklin.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If the 60/40 result were to pan out in TAS, that would be a 5.8% swing - which is roughly the swing I'm predicting Nationally at the moment.