Will It All Come Down to Ohio?

[HoopsCubs]

Regardless of how many different electoral vote scenarios I crunch, the answer keeps converging to one state: Ohio.

Yes, it is 9 months before Election Day, and there is still a lot of intrigue left to unfold, but I am pretty convinced now based on my own research and reading many of your inputs that Ohio is the key to this election.  It's difficult to see the winner of Ohio not being elected (or re-elected) President.

Everyone stills wants to focus on Florida, but even though the difference in popular vote in 2000 was smaller in Florida than Ohio, Florida will be a longer-shot than Ohio in my opinion.  

The Democrats' 3 main formulas are simple (though not easy, of course):

(a) Ohio+2000 Gore states-Minnesota = 270 = Presidency
(b) Ohio+New Hampshire+West Virginia+2000 Gore states-Minnesota-Iowa = 272 = Presidency
(c) winning Ohio = loss of manufacturing jobs+steel tariffs+major healthcare concerns+rushed Iraq war with no peace plan+counties trending Democratic+unpopular Governor=not easy

This is the state where I would expect Kerry (or whoever the nominee is) to spend the most time and invest the most money.   If the Democrats win Ohio, it will be a slim margin, no doubt, less than 1% difference in popular vote.  And there is no way that the Bush machine will roll over in Ohio. I would expect Rove to pull out all stops to keep Ohio.  They too understand how important a 20 electoral vote state is to their re-election bid.

As has been pointed out by many of you, there is no popular Democratic figure in Ohio to guarantee an inside win.   As far as neighboring states go, perhaps Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, or Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania could be logical running mates.

What do you folks think?  I know many of you, who are Republicans, are pretty convinced Ohio won't vote Democratic.  Certainly probability is on your side, but could Ohio be an upset in the making?

HoopsCubs

[agcatter]

I agree both sides will throw everything they have into this state - much like they did Florida in 2000.

[agcatter]

I also agree with your analysis that no matter how you slice it, the math dictates that it is a MUST win for both sides.

[Dave from Michigan]

It will be close but i think the reublicans will win

[Nym90]

Bayh would be a great running mate for Kerry. He would help in all of the Midwest, including Ohio. Kerry would still lose Indiana, but Bayh would be an excellent choice to help in the rest of the Midwestern swing states as well (Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri)

[M]

I'm not sure Bayh would take it. He wants to head the ticket in '08. Given his pro-democracy foreign policy views, however, its hard to see him getting nominated in the democratic party.

[Platypus]

well, Gore states +NV+WV is a Democrat victory, so Ohio isn't absolutely necessary. But it is certainly very important, and I can understand why alot of time, money and effort will be spent there.

Also, please, no Ohioans on the VP ticket. We have already had way too many POTUSes from there.

[Nym90]

Well, I don't see why Bayh wouldn't take it, it would either give him a leg up for 2008 or 2012, regardless of what happens in 2004. And if he's pro-democracy on foreign policy, then he agrees with every other Democrat on that issue, so I don't see any conflict.

[opebo]

Even though I agree it will be very close nationally, I think OH is actually slightly *more* likely to go Bush in 2004 than it was in 2000.  The same is true of WV.  MO is definitely more solid Bush this time.  I think the sort of 'cultural divide' will be stronger this time, which benefits Bush in OH, MO, WV.  In fact this polarizing cultural divide strengthens him in virtually all the states he won in 2000, while weakening him in the Gore states.  
We could actually see a very close Bush electoral college victory with as low or lower percentage of the popular vote.

[12th Doctor]

Ohio would only go Dem. in a solid Dem victory.  I think that Arizona and Nevada are the states that are most likely to leave Bush in 2004.  Not that it matters because I think that Minnisota, Iowa and Wisconsin are VERY likely to leave the Dems in 2004.

[Harry]

I would bet money that as goes Ohio, as goes the nation.
It'll be the Florida (2000) of 2004.

[12th Doctor]

I would bet money that as goes Ohio, as goes the nation.
It'll be the Florida (2000) of 2004.

I suppose that I can aggree with what you are saying, but I see it difficult to imagine Ohio going to a Dem unless it was a major Bush loss.  (By at least 4% in the popular vote)

[Gustaf]

Ohio is the swing states of swing states, THE swing state of all time...if you look at past elections you'll find that Ohio has almost always been an important swing state, somewhere in between the Southern bloc and the Northeastern-Mid-Western bloc. Bush COULD lose Ohio and still win the election though, it's just that if he loses Ohio it would indicate a broad loss of support for him.

[jravnsbo]

How about he is up for Reelection.  He exits that seat to run for VP/and or GOP wins Gov and they pick up another senate seat.  Plus Bayh can stay out of this one and run without this thought in 2008.  AN open Indian seat definately goes GOP.

Well, I don't see why Bayh wouldn't take it, it would either give him a leg up for 2008 or 2012, regardless of what happens in 2004. And if he's pro-democracy on foreign policy, then he agrees with every other Democrat on that issue, so I don't see any conflict.

[jravnsbo]

Problem for Dems is that they have so little room for error in 2004 to win the Presidency.  GOP has solid base int eh south and MT west and will definately go after close Gore states too, putting them on the defensive ina lot of places with less money.

[Harry]

I would bet money that as goes Ohio, as goes the nation.
It'll be the Florida (2000) of 2004.

I suppose that I can aggree with what you are saying, but I see it difficult to imagine Ohio going to a Dem unless it was a major Bush loss.  (By at least 4% in the popular vote)

True.  It seems likely now that Ohio and the nation are going to Bush (still months to go; so much can change either way)
If Bush wins Ohio, that means things are going as they should and Bush will be reelected.
If Kerry wins Ohio, then he'll have won elsewhere presumably also and have won the election.

[12th Doctor]

I would bet money that as goes Ohio, as goes the nation.
It'll be the Florida (2000) of 2004.

I suppose that I can aggree with what you are saying, but I see it difficult to imagine Ohio going to a Dem unless it was a major Bush loss.  (By at least 4% in the popular vote)

True.  It seems likely now that Ohio and the nation are going to Bush (still months to go; so much can change either way)
If Bush wins Ohio, that means things are going as they should and Bush will be reelected.
If Kerry wins Ohio, then he'll have won elsewhere presumably also and have won the election.

That's what I think.  If Ohio goes Kerry, it won't matter because Kerry will probably win Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire too.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Bayh would take the slot of VP.  but if he loses as VP, he could become the Lieberman of the 2008 race: a losing centrist VP candidate who just doesn't catch on.

Bayh might be to the right of Rudy...