1924: William McAdoo vs. Calvin Coolidge

[pragmatic liberal]

I don't know enough about this election to know how much better McAdoo would have done versus Coolidge than John W. Davis. Since both McAdoo and Davis were from the conservative wing of the Democratic Party, I assume that Robert LaFollette, Jr. would have run as he did in the actual timeline and taken about 20% of the vote from the two more conservative candidates.

So who wins? Coolidge or McAdoo. I imagine McAdoo would have been a stronger candidate than Davis, but aside from the South, I imagine Coolidge would have still won, given his popularity, incumbency, and the economic prosperity of the time period.

I'll let others post their maps.

[Dr. Cynic]

It wouldn't have mattered... Democrats had spent all their energy on the 103 ballot marathon convention...

Coolidge was popular... No one could've beaten him.

[minionofmidas]

Perhaps more interesting scenario - Smith wins the 1924 nomination. (I guess La Follette runs anyways.) A conservative Southerner runs in 1928. What impact, if any, does this have on later events?

[CPT MikeyMike]

Perhaps more interesting scenario - Smith wins the 1924 nomination. (I guess La Follette runs anyways.) A conservative Southerner runs in 1928. What impact, if any, does this have on later events?

It would make no impact at all.

Coolidge was popular... No one could've beaten him.

As Lawerence pointed out, Coolidge would have beaten anyone, including Smith in 1924. In 1928, the Republicans run Hoover against Joseph Robinson of Arkansas and Hoover wins in a landslide - just like it actually happened.

So IMO, events wouldn't have changed if someone else ran in 1924.

[Lincoln Republican]

Following the disaster of the Wilson Presidency, which he came within a whisper of losing in 1916, the Republicans owned the Presidency in the 1920's.

For the 1924 election, to which you refer, the Democrats would not have broken out of their "solid south" base, if former Treasury Secretary William McAdoo had been the nominee instead of John W. Davis.

I have no doubt that McAdoo would have been a more formidable candidate than Davis, however,  Coolidge was well  liked and respected.  Nobody would have beaten him in 1924.  Maybe add another southern state, Kentucky, to the Democratic column with McAdoo as the nominee, as the Republicans narrowly won this state against the intelligent but ininspiring Davis.

Coolidge was the popular incumbent President, presiding over a strong economy at home, with no major conflicts abroad.

Practically any Republican would have won in 1920, 1924, 1928.  Changing the Democratic nominee would not have produced improvement for the Democrats.

As proof positive that the Republicans could have run almot anyone, in the 1920s, one has simply to look at 1920, where they ran without a doubt one of the very worst candidates ever to run for the office of President, Warren Harding, who won a landslide victory.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

[gorkay]

McAdoo or Smith would have done better in the PV than Davis (and, correlatively, LaFollette slightly worse), but not nearly better enough to come close to winning. Smith might have carried MA and RI, but might have lost some of the southern states, as he did in 1928.