Alternative 1984: Howard Baker/Jack Kemp vs. Lloyd Bentsen/Joe Biden

[gorkay]

Baker and Kemp would win in a fairly close race. The country was still pretty conservative in 1984. This is providing that Reagan enthusiastically supported the ticket.

There are many reasons why Reagan might not have run. Failing health, the onset of Alzheimer's, lingering effects from the assassination attempt. Nancy didn't want him to run again. If she had been more insistent about it, he might not have. It's hard to imagine why Bush wouldn't run, though, and how he would fail to get the nomination if he did.

The two tickets wouldn't offer much to liberals. I wonder if they would mount a third-party effort, perhaps with Jesse Jackson on the ticket?

[gorkay]

Baker and Kemp would win in a fairly close race. The country was still pretty conservative in 1984. This is providing that Reagan enthusiastically supported the ticket.

There are many reasons why Reagan might not have run. Failing health, the onset of Alzheimer's, lingering effects from the assassination attempt. Nancy didn't want him to run again. If she had been more insistent about it, he might not have. It's hard to imagine why Bush wouldn't run, though, and how he would fail to get the nomination if he did.

The two tickets wouldn't offer much to liberals. I wonder if they would mount a third-party effort, perhaps with Jesse Jackson on the ticket?

Biden offers something to the liberals.  He is one of the most liberal Democrats.

I always thought of Biden as a moderate. His foreign-policy views certainly aren't the most liberal among the Democrats.

[gorkay]

In the event that Reagan did decide not to run for re-election in 1984,  I think that Bush/Baker would be more likely to be the GOP ticket rather than Baker/Kemp and would have defeated any team the Democrats would have run

That probably would have been the case. However, for the sake of the scenario, let's assume Vice President Bush decides not to seek the Republican Nomination for person reasons. I wonder if the ticket of Baker/Kemp would be re-elected in 1988?

It would have to do with how successful or popular they proved to be in office, and who the Dems put up against them. They might have been judged, at least at the time, as having a fairly successful first term, especially on the foreign-policy front, since all the positive developments that occurred in eastern Europe from 1984-1988 would have happened anyway (despite what the Reagan idolaters claim).