First, Florida:
It looks like the cutoff date for campaigning in Florida will be August 25th. Unless Florida moves its primary to some other date in the interim, every Democratic candidate who campaigns in Florida after Aug. 25th will be ineligible to win any of the state's delegates:
Hmm. Thatīs really a problem. Isnīt there a deadline sometimes in September or October when every state has to have itīs primary/caucus date fixed ? What if this is the case lets say in early September that every state has signed their respective date into law and lets say 2 days before the deadline the DNC approves a softening of their rules, so that the votes finally count in the Jan. 29 primary ? No state would have enough time to pass an earlier date before the deadline. Florida has itīs "legitimate rule-softened-primary" and negative publicity about voter disenfranchisement is avoided. Probably this wonīt happen though.
What if status quo prevails and every Democrat who campaigns in FL after August 26 is scrapped of its delegates ?
Do you think that Obama would get above 15% if he doesnīt campaign in the state for the last 5 months ? Would it be better for him to poker and at least hope to get above 15% to get any delegates, while Hillary will campaign there under every circumstance and get NO delegates whatsoever ?